In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and John Rubino discuss:
- Trade Wars
- Suddenly arising with Russia and China
- Modern Monetary Theory
- A delusion that dates back to the days of John Law
- A Great Crash Indicator
- RV sales are sending a warning sign
- Risky Real Estate
- Private equity will sell fast when times get bad
Chris and John discuss the looming trade wars with Russia and China, the long-term implications of the worldwide credit binge, and the indicators that will presage a systemic correction. John shares his assessment of one of his most trusted crash indicators, RV sales:
This is a typical cycle for RVs. It’s a big toy and people are cocky now because they’ve been working for a little while. They have extremely easy credit. Interest rates are incredibly low. If you’ve got a decent credit score you can buy an RV for 2 or 3% interest and a lot of people are taking advantage of that, just as they spent the last three or four years taking advantage of incredibly cheap car loan terms, and running, basically, an auto sales bubble. They’ve kind of shifted to RVs now, which is yet another sign that the cycle is nearing an end.
This "recovery" is 8 years old now. The typical recovery is 6 years.
by davefairtex