The Year of the Tiger

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Executive Summary

• China is pursuing an active policy of resource mercantilism.
• China appears to be strategically preparing for resource scarcity.
• China’s auto sales have surpassed those of the US.
• This year China also edged out Germany as the top exporter.
• As China’s economy expands, its energy use increases.
• The US should be stewarding its remaining resources and transitioning deliberately to a very different economic model, but instead we are wasting both time and resources.

No, this report has nothing to do with golfing.  In the Chinese calendar, 2010 is the Year of the Tiger.

While the US and Europe are busy wasting time trying to figure out how to return to the condition of illusory economic health that defined The Aughts, China seems to be operating from a very different playbook.

For the moment, I want you to assume that the concept of rapidly (and permanently) depleting resources is a reality.  This shouldn’t be much of a stretch, because this is true on a per-capita basis for nearly every critical resource, and some are already “past peak” by any measure.

Now suppose that you have a multi-year view of things and are in charge of running a major nation.  What would your strategy be?

What I would do is run around the globe and secure access to needed resources as fast as I could.  And I’d do it using my checkbook and diplomacy.  A bankrupt strategy, on the other hand, would involve ignoring the looming issue of resource scarcity, while counting on my superior military to secure my access if or when necessary.

In a nutshell, this defines the difference between the Chinese and US resource strategies.  To the extent that European nations are relying on NATO for their resource strategy, it applies to them as well.

Where China is pursuing an active policy of mercantilism, the US pursues gunboat diplomacy.  One strategy is conversant with the future; the other speaks to the past.

China’s Economic Rocket Ride

There were a couple of shocking (to me) reports in the news this week about China’s global economic position.  The first thing that really caught my attention was this:

China Ends U.S.’s Reign as Largest Auto Market

Jan.