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Art Berman

Image | Will An Oil Price Spike Be The Next Blow To The Economy?
Will An Oil Price Spike Be The Next Blow To The Economy?
by Adam Taggart

Like it or not, our modern way of life remains extremely dependent on oil. And even using the rosiest of forecasts, that’s not going to change anytime soon.

Which is why petroleum geologist Art Berman’s prediction of a 30% spike in oil prices later this year is so worrisome.

If it indeed occurs, it will be another painful gut-shot to a global economy still struggling to recover from the damage inflicted by the pandemic.
Will An Oil Price Spike Be The Next Blow To The Economy?
 by Adam Taggart

Like it or not, our modern way of life remains extremely dependent on oil. And even using the rosiest of forecasts, that’s not going to change anytime soon.

Which is why petroleum geologist Art Berman’s prediction of a 30% spike in oil prices later this year is so worrisome.

If it indeed occurs, it will be another painful gut-shot to a global economy still struggling to recover from the damage inflicted by the pandemic.
Image | Off The Cuff: The Coming Oil Shortage Of June 2021
Off The Cuff: The Coming Oil Shortage Of June 2021
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • US oil consumption is down ~15%, a good proxy of GDP shrinkage
  • Why US oil production will be dramatically lower by next June
  • Why the US may never produce as much oil as it did between 2016-2019
  • Why oil, not interest rates, will be the limiter of economic growth going forward

For many years on this website we’ve warned of the coming crisis of “Peak Cheap Oil”. We may now be entering a new, accelerating stage of that story.

Petroleum geologist Art Berman returns to the program to explain why he predicts US oil production will be materially lower by next June, and why it will likely never return to its 2016-2019 highs.

Click here to listen to a sample of this Off The Cuff Podcast

Or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Off The Cuff: The Coming Oil Shortage Of June 2021
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • US oil consumption is down ~15%, a good proxy of GDP shrinkage
  • Why US oil production will be dramatically lower by next June
  • Why the US may never produce as much oil as it did between 2016-2019
  • Why oil, not interest rates, will be the limiter of economic growth going forward

For many years on this website we’ve warned of the coming crisis of “Peak Cheap Oil”. We may now be entering a new, accelerating stage of that story.

Petroleum geologist Art Berman returns to the program to explain why he predicts US oil production will be materially lower by next June, and why it will likely never return to its 2016-2019 highs.

Click here to listen to a sample of this Off The Cuff Podcast

Or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Image | Off The Cuff: Too Vital To Fail
Off The Cuff: Too Vital To Fail
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • It’s about as bad as it has ever been for the US oil industry
  • Expect the government to intervene, as oil is Too Vital To Fail
  • Any ‘recovery’ will be long and costly
  • Like it or not, energy conservation and efficiency will be forced on society

The global economy remains completely addicted to fossil fuel, particularly oil — the “master” resource.

Of late, a collapse in the price of oil due to a slowing global economy — and then the widespread shutdowns forced by covid-19 — combined with overleveraged players and energetically-expensive extraction practices, and the industry is facing a likely wave of bankruptcies.

So expect extreme action to keep the oil flowing, including but not limited to government takeover. Why? It truly is an “at all costs” need for those in charge. Art explains why extremely eloquently in this podcast.

Click here to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast

Or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Off The Cuff: Too Vital To Fail
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • It’s about as bad as it has ever been for the US oil industry
  • Expect the government to intervene, as oil is Too Vital To Fail
  • Any ‘recovery’ will be long and costly
  • Like it or not, energy conservation and efficiency will be forced on society

The global economy remains completely addicted to fossil fuel, particularly oil — the “master” resource.

Of late, a collapse in the price of oil due to a slowing global economy — and then the widespread shutdowns forced by covid-19 — combined with overleveraged players and energetically-expensive extraction practices, and the industry is facing a likely wave of bankruptcies.

So expect extreme action to keep the oil flowing, including but not limited to government takeover. Why? It truly is an “at all costs” need for those in charge. Art explains why extremely eloquently in this podcast.

Click here to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast

Or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Image | Art Berman: Houston, We Have A Problem
Art Berman: Houston, We Have A Problem
by Adam Taggart

Chris caught petroleum geologist Art Berman right before he went on stage to deliver a presentation on the limitations of shale oil (his excellent slides can be found here). The world is finally starting to realize that the profit-making potential of this space was drastically over-hyped.

But more important, warns Art, is that the souring sentiment on shale oil is a reflection on the bigger challenge ahead of us: How we will power the world in a future of declining net energy?

Art Berman: Houston, We Have A Problem
 by Adam Taggart

Chris caught petroleum geologist Art Berman right before he went on stage to deliver a presentation on the limitations of shale oil (his excellent slides can be found here). The world is finally starting to realize that the profit-making potential of this space was drastically over-hyped.

But more important, warns Art, is that the souring sentiment on shale oil is a reflection on the bigger challenge ahead of us: How we will power the world in a future of declining net energy?

Image | Off The Cuff: Declining Energy Consumption Shows Recession Is At The Doorstep
Off The Cuff: Declining Energy Consumption Shows Recession Is At The Doorstep
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • Understanding The Importance Of Crack Spreads
  • Diesel Consumption Is Down 500,000 Barrels/Day Since January
  • The Shale Oil Reckoning Is Approaching
  • Key Slides From Art

Petroleum expert Art Berman explains how crack spreads (the difference between what refiners pay for crude oil and the price they receive for their refined product) and oil demand volumes are indicating the global economy is slowing markedly. Economies need energy to function. Less energy consumed = lower growth and output.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Off The Cuff: Declining Energy Consumption Shows Recession Is At The Doorstep
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • Understanding The Importance Of Crack Spreads
  • Diesel Consumption Is Down 500,000 Barrels/Day Since January
  • The Shale Oil Reckoning Is Approaching
  • Key Slides From Art

Petroleum expert Art Berman explains how crack spreads (the difference between what refiners pay for crude oil and the price they receive for their refined product) and oil demand volumes are indicating the global economy is slowing markedly. Economies need energy to function. Less energy consumed = lower growth and output.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Image | Off The Cuff: Why Drilling US Oil Isn’t Profitable
Off The Cuff: Why Drilling US Oil Isn’t Profitable
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • Shale Oil’s Chronic Profit Drought
    • Nearly all companies are cash-flow negative
  • Why Drilling US Oil Isn’t Profitable
    • Oil service costs eat your lunch
  • Why Drillers Can’t Stop Drilling
    • They need cash to service their debts
  • Shale Oil Is A Business Model With No Future
    • When credit tightens, the whole industry will implode

Right now, the US is still producing a record amount of oil, due mostly to shale fields developed within the past decade. But that bonanza won’t last — it can’t last — explains petroleum geologist Art Berman. Nearly every shale driller has been and will remain to be unprofitable. The nature of shale wells and the nature of oil service costs will ensure that.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Off The Cuff: Why Drilling US Oil Isn’t Profitable
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

In this week’s Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • Shale Oil’s Chronic Profit Drought
    • Nearly all companies are cash-flow negative
  • Why Drilling US Oil Isn’t Profitable
    • Oil service costs eat your lunch
  • Why Drillers Can’t Stop Drilling
    • They need cash to service their debts
  • Shale Oil Is A Business Model With No Future
    • When credit tightens, the whole industry will implode

Right now, the US is still producing a record amount of oil, due mostly to shale fields developed within the past decade. But that bonanza won’t last — it can’t last — explains petroleum geologist Art Berman. Nearly every shale driller has been and will remain to be unprofitable. The nature of shale wells and the nature of oil service costs will ensure that.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com’s other premium content.

Image | Off The Cuff: Twilight In The Desert Has Begun
Off The Cuff: Twilight In The Desert Has Begun
 PREVIEW
by Adam Taggart

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • Is the Ghawar oil field truly in decline?
  • If so, what are the implications?
  • What other important revelations does the Saudi Aramco prospectus contain?

In the light of the huge surprise contained in the recent Saudi Aramco prospectus, that Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar “crown jewel” conventional oil field is in decline (currently at a maximum output of 3.8 million barrels per day vs the previous estimate of 5.8mbd), we rushed to interview seasoned petroleum geologist Art Berman on the news.

Is he as concerned about the revelation as we are?

Yes. In fact, he suspects the 3.8mbd is likely still an overly-exagerrated figure, and that the field's true max output is even lower.

In his estimation, the fiction the world has been telling itself — that Peak Oil isn't real — is about to be rudely disproven. The recent (and much more expensive) shale bonanza will prove to be a short-lived distraction, and we'll soon be face-to-face with the predicament of how to power the global economy with less net energy.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

Off The Cuff: Twilight In The Desert Has Begun
 PREVIEW by Adam Taggart

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Art Berman discuss:

  • Is the Ghawar oil field truly in decline?
  • If so, what are the implications?
  • What other important revelations does the Saudi Aramco prospectus contain?

In the light of the huge surprise contained in the recent Saudi Aramco prospectus, that Saudi Arabia's massive Ghawar “crown jewel” conventional oil field is in decline (currently at a maximum output of 3.8 million barrels per day vs the previous estimate of 5.8mbd), we rushed to interview seasoned petroleum geologist Art Berman on the news.

Is he as concerned about the revelation as we are?

Yes. In fact, he suspects the 3.8mbd is likely still an overly-exagerrated figure, and that the field's true max output is even lower.

In his estimation, the fiction the world has been telling itself — that Peak Oil isn't real — is about to be rudely disproven. The recent (and much more expensive) shale bonanza will prove to be a short-lived distraction, and we'll soon be face-to-face with the predicament of how to power the global economy with less net energy.

Click to listen to a sample of this Off the Cuff Podcast or Enroll today to access the full audio as well as all of PeakProsperity.com's other premium content.

Image | Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil
Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil
by Adam Taggart

Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.

Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

  • The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
  • It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
  • The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
  • New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?

We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work.
Art Berman: Exposing The False Promise Of Shale Oil
 by Adam Taggart

Art Berman, geological consultant with over 37 years experience in petroleum exploration and production, returns to the podcast this week to debunk much of the hopium currently surrounding America’s shale oil output.

Because the US is pinning huge hopes on its shale oil “revolution”, so much depends on that story being right. Here’s the narrative right now:

  • The US, is the new Saudi Arabia
  • It’s the swing producer when it comes to influencing the price of oil
  • The US will be able to increase oil production for decades to come
  • New technology is unlocking more oil shale supply all the time

But what if there’s evidence that runs counter to all of that?

We’re going to be taking a little victory lap on this week’s podcast because The Wall Street Journal has finally admitted that shale oil wells are not producing as much as the companies operating them touted they would produce — which is what we’ve been saying for years here at PeakProsperity.com, largely because we closely follow Art’s work.
Image | Art Berman: Think Oil Is Getting Expensive? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet.
Art Berman: Think Oil Is Getting Expensive? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet.
by Adam Taggart

After issuing clear warnings on this program that sub-$50 oil prices were going to be short-lived, oil expert and geological consultant Art Berman returns to the podcast this week to explain why today's $70 oil prices will go higher — likely much higher — and start materially contricting world economic growth.

Art explains how the current glut of oil created by the US shale boom — along with high crude output by both OPEC and non-OPEC  producers — is a temporary anomaly. Fundamentally, we are not finding nearly as much oil as we need to continue the trajectory of the global demand curve. And at the same time, we're extracting our reserves at a faster rate than ever. That's a mathematical recipe for a coming supply crunch — it's not a matter of if, but when.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Art Berman (60m:06s).
Art Berman: Think Oil Is Getting Expensive? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet.
 by Adam Taggart

After issuing clear warnings on this program that sub-$50 oil prices were going to be short-lived, oil expert and geological consultant Art Berman returns to the podcast this week to explain why today's $70 oil prices will go higher — likely much higher — and start materially contricting world economic growth.

Art explains how the current glut of oil created by the US shale boom — along with high crude output by both OPEC and non-OPEC  producers — is a temporary anomaly. Fundamentally, we are not finding nearly as much oil as we need to continue the trajectory of the global demand curve. And at the same time, we're extracting our reserves at a faster rate than ever. That's a mathematical recipe for a coming supply crunch — it's not a matter of if, but when.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Art Berman (60m:06s).
Image | Art Berman: Like It Or Not, The Future Remains All About Oil
Art Berman: Like It Or Not, The Future Remains All About Oil
by Adam Taggart

Art Berman, 40-year veteran in the petroleum production industry and respected geological consultant, returns to the podcast this week to talk about oil.

After the price of oil fell from its previous $100+/bbl highs to under $30/bbl in 2015, many declared dead the concerns raised by peak oil theorists. Headlines selling the "shale miracle" have sought to convince us that the US will one day eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. In short: cheap, plentiful oil is here to stay.

How likely is this?

Not at all, warns Berman. World demand for oil shows no signs of abating while the outlook for future production looks increasingly scant. And the competition among nations for this "master resource" will be much more intense in future decades than we've been used to.
Art Berman: Like It Or Not, The Future Remains All About Oil
 by Adam Taggart

Art Berman, 40-year veteran in the petroleum production industry and respected geological consultant, returns to the podcast this week to talk about oil.

After the price of oil fell from its previous $100+/bbl highs to under $30/bbl in 2015, many declared dead the concerns raised by peak oil theorists. Headlines selling the "shale miracle" have sought to convince us that the US will one day eclipse Saudi Arabia in oil production. In short: cheap, plentiful oil is here to stay.

How likely is this?

Not at all, warns Berman. World demand for oil shows no signs of abating while the outlook for future production looks increasingly scant. And the competition among nations for this "master resource" will be much more intense in future decades than we've been used to.
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