Fed Rate Increase Still on Track; Fighting to The Last Ukrainian

My focus this week: what are market expectations are for Fed rate increases, and prospects for a recession? Futures markets predictions for Fed rate increases located here.

Last week:
• July 27, 71%: 2.25% – 2.50% +0.75% vs. now
• Nov 2, 61%: 3.00% – 3.25% +1.5% vs. now

This week:
• July 27, 92%: 2.25%-2.50% +0.75% vs. now
• Nov 2, 50%: 3.25%-3.50% +1.75% vs. now

So, that’s a projected Fed rate increase – by Nov 2 – of 175 basis point total, or 25 bp higher than last week. So far, the market does not see the Fed backing off. Perhaps as a result, the Euro/USD plunged 2.32% to a new 20-year low. The flip side: a strong rally in the buck, which broke out to a new 20-year high. Money appears to be fleeing the EU for the U.S. A dollar rally = risk-off behavior.

The CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Index made another lower-low this week; unlike Chris who sees dropping commodity prices (wheat, crude, natgas, etc) as a result of market manipulation, Ed Dowd believes that falling commodity prices are a sign of a severe recession in the offing which the markets have sniffed out, while at the same time the Fed appears determined to raise rates into the teeth of this alleged upcoming recession. I am still trying to figure out who is right. All I’m sure about: the CRB is in a downtrend. The unknown: food production shortages and possible starvation.

There was talk this week of an “inverted yield curve” which is another recession signal. I took a peek – it is getting closer, but we aren’t there just yet. 1Y=2.94%, 10Y=3.09%, 30Y=3.27%. No inversion – at least not at end of this week. But we are getting close. More-than-hints of recession.

In spite of the sharp move higher this week in the 10-year yield (up 21 bp), 30-year mortgage rates plunged, dropping a massive 40 bp (from 5.70% to 5.30%). This would seem to support the recessionary thesis. Still not sure why 30-year mortage rates plunged, while 10-year rates moved strongly higher.

There was a fair amount of fuss over the “unexpectedly good” Payrolls report: headline up 372k. But here’s a wrinkle: the CNP disabled 16+ series was also up: 235k. So, 372k new workers, and 235k new disabled workers. I’m guessing it is quite hard for companies to get qualified workers with those ever-increasing three million disabled workers since 2021. Gun to your head: are the three million disabled workers inflationary or deflationary? (This was something a former Bank of America forex trader at my old company used to say to us engineers: “gun to your head” = what’s your gut reaction? No long complicated answer needed, and don’t think about it too long).

So – gun to my head – feels like a setup for wage-price inflation to me. Workers now sense they have more leverage. And once the reason for the disability becomes public knowledge…boy, the wage demands will get a lot more intense. Nothing like reigniting the struggle between labor and capital – where capital’s forced-vaccination policies ended up killing or injuring labor – by the millions. Labor is going to be pissed.

Gold broke down to a new low this week, falling $66.84 [-3.68%], which was a new 7-month low. Most of the losses came on Tuesday and Wednesday. While some of the move was probably due to the strong dollar rally, it does appear as though the banksters have a firm grip on gold prices at the moment, and the whole rate-increase-mania isn’t great for gold prices. [Just FYI – I’m still working on getting the new data feed to generate reliable commodity prices. It’s a slow process. You’d think this would be easy, but it isn’t.]

Our precious Strategic Petroleum Reserve (red line) continues to be emptied by the WEF factotums that have “penetrated the U.S. Cabinet”; SPR is down -5.8 million barrels this week alone. At $100/barrel, that’s $580 million of oil, paid for by You and Me. In one week. At least the SPR withdrawal appears to have made it into the commercial U.S. reserves this week, so that’s a plus.  Perhaps the WEF factotums have belatedly figured out that selling U.S. SPR oil to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might be a bad look for them. Remember, they weren’t selected for intelligence.

U.S. Politics:

• 88 percent say U.S. is on wrong track: survey. That’s 94% of Republicans, 91% of independents, and 80% of Democrats. Earth-shatteringly bad.
• Dems full of ‘outright worry’ over Biden’s leadership, say he’s ‘out of time’ to fix things: Politico. I keep waiting for the Agnew-Nixon sequenced replacement event for Kamala-Joe, but so far – no luck. Four more months left.
• The U.S. Continues To Export Record Levels of Oil Reserves Despite Record High Gas Prices.  “Oil exports from the U.S. to reach an all-time high of 3.3m b/d in the current quarter as refinery disruptions and Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases increase available supplies, Rystad Energy says.”

WEF/Technocracy:

• European Parliament says natural gas projects can be considered ‘green’ for investments. Thanks, EU/WEF! It isn’t even winter yet. Just think how “green” all these fossil fuel power sources will be labeled, belatedly, once winter arrives. “Lignite coal = green!” Science.
• Former Japanese PM assassinated.  By a unabomber-like “lone gunman” with a home-made double-barreled shotgun who was “dissatisfied” with Abe-san. My question: Cui Bono? My first thought is the CCP, since Abe-san was a nationalist.
• Was the Group Abe was Associated with the WEF? [armstrong] “Abe was a contributor to the WEF. There are no ties of the shooter to any local grudge group. The “group” may be that of the WEF and they do not want to publicly state that for fear of copy-cat assassinations elsewhere.”
• Boris Johnson to resign as Conservative Party leader today. He’s not the “Conservative Party leader” any longer, but he remains Prime Minister, and he will stick around as PM for several more months “until his successor is selected.” Maybe there are some Very Unpleasant things he’ll be called upon to do on his way out the door. We’ll soon see.
• The United Nations Scrubbed This Article Heralding ‘The Benefits Of World Hunger’ From Its Website After It Went Viral [archive.org]. “For those of us at the high end of the social ladder, ending hunger globally would be a disaster. If there were no hunger in the world, who would plow the fields? Who would harvest our vegetables? Who would work in the rendering plants? Who would clean our toilets?”

• A Popular Uprising Against the Elites Has Gone Global | Opinion “There is a growing resistance by the middle and lower classes against what Rob Henderson has coined the “luxury beliefs” of the elites, as everyday folks realize the harm it causes them and their communities.” Let them eat cake! Let them fly private! It’s good to be da king!

“Health”:

• Canada’s Health Minister: “You Will Never Be Fully-Vaxxed” “Canadians will be required to get a Covid shot every nine months for the foreseeable future,” says Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos. Shots don’t work, they cause disability and death, but Mr. Minister will force you to get one every nine months anyway. Your Body, My Choice!

• With monkeypox, let’s not let the stupidity that hurt us with COVID strike again. “Maybe the name monkeypox, which sounds far more scary than coronavirus, will stop all the insanity before it begins.” Problem: Monkeypox is basically a rash, which has caused no deaths, and mainly affects the “more enthusiastic” members of the male gay community.  In the picture below, you will see an example of how much fear monkeypox is causing; the ridicule is getting a little bit out of control. Res ipsa loquitur.

• • Doctors Warn of Vitamin D Supplement “Overdosing” – Man Hospitalized After Losing 28 Pounds. As usual, nobody has died; this single case report is literally the scariest thing they could dig up for vitamin D from a nation of 350 million people. I think: the recent increase in vitamin D supplementation has led to an alarming increase in accidental cancer prevention, accidental flu prevention, and intentional COVID-19 mortality reduction; as a result, I’m projecting tens of billions in damage to Pharma/Sickcare revenues from shocking, widespread vitamin D and melatonin sufficiency. Truly, this is a disaster, which must be stopped at all costs, and led directly to the writing of this article. [Target: 50 ng/ml]

• • Judge rules LA Unified School District was wrong to mandate the COVID vaccines [stkirsh]

• The “safe and effective” narrative is falling apart [stkirsh]. Steve is starting to see an increasing number of cracks in the wall. He might be a little optimistic, but in the main, I think he’s right. At some point – I think soon – a switch will flip, and things will change dramatically. Eventually, “treatment for vax damage” – for millions of victims – will become the responsibility of government. There are just too many vax-damaged to ignore. Once proposed, it will be a very compelling campaign issue. Not sure if 2022 or 2024.
  

Save the Blessed Ukraine:

• Colonel Douglas Macgregor has argued for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [RT]. “We can’t afford to fight this until there are no longer any Ukrainians left,” he insisted, noting that he has heard from people in Berlin, Paris, and London that there is growing support for a ceasefire or coming to “some sort of an arrangement” between Moscow and Kiev.
• Letter from a friend, an Average Russian [saker, via archive.org]. “Lvov and Lutsk regions will be annexed by Poland; Zakarpatye region of Ukraine will be annexed by Hungary; Regions marked with the Russian flag will join Russian Federation.” Will Ukraine really end up getting chopped up like a Christmas turkey, with all the neighbors getting a slice? Always interesting to see a view from the other side of the hill.