There were two economic reports this week:
- Nonfarm Payrolls: +223k month over month (m/m) [prior +256k] (bullish)
- Durable Goods: New Orders -2.13% m/m, Shipments +0.19% m/m (bearish)
My favorite section of payrolls that I use for detecting recession isn’t showing a clear signal of recession just yet; the FRED Series (LNS12032196) titled “working part-time for economic reasons/only part-time work available” did tick higher (which is bearish), but that’s coming off a 2.8-year low. See how the series (below) popped higher at the start of each prior recession? Note the red recession bars are only applied six months after the fact, so this series is a recession indicator that theoretically works in realtime. It did move higher in December, but that could just be oscillation – which this series does often. The MA3 shows no change. The old saying may apply: “if your neighbor loses his job, that’s a recession. If you lose your job – that’s a depression.” But if nobody loses their job, what do we call that?
I still claim the shocking rise in disability (2021/2022) is one reason why nobody is losing their job: disability in working age men and women inched higher in December, up +48k m/m. It is difficult to have a “payrolls-driven” recession when disability remains high, and everyone can find full time work if they want it. I anticipate the seasonal disability impulse will cause total disability to rise over the next three months. And unfortunately, people continue to Die Suddenly also.
Wolf Richter is an interesting marker of “public knowledge.” He is a really smart guy, but he remains mystified by the labor shortage. He has some great charts on Friday’s payrolls data (Source – WolfStreet), he notices that the Main Stream Media (MSM) narrative has shifted away from “worker shortage” (even though he points out that the shortage remains), and he observes shortages in the vax-mandated healthcare sector, but he doesn’t know why. Note that 28% of Americans think the Holy Shot caused a death in someone they know (Source – Rasmussen), and 48% believe there is reason to be concerned about side effects.
Tellingly, 33% of Democrats and 26% of Republicans suspect someone they knew has died from the shot. That’s telling, because Democrats tend to believe in the shot most – 85% of Dems have taken it vs.
by thc0655