- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): +1.2B
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +1.1B (+0.01% w/w); contractionary.
- 30 Year Mortgage Rates (MORTGAGE30US); 6.64% (+1 bp)
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10): 4.18% (+15 bp); big increase.
It was a quiet week from the standpoint of economic news; at least on the items I track anyway.
There was some minor dollar-deconfetti this week – the buck rose 0.21 (+0.20%) to 103.99. All the gains came on Monday – the buck moved up about 0.5%, but then faded as the week progressed. The “spinning top” candle looks bearish, but the candle model didn’t seem worried.
The 10-year treasury rate rose 15 bp, which pulled it back above the 200 MA – that’s bullish for the rate trend going forward. The 10-year yield is now back in an uptrend in weekly & monthly timeframes. Note that bank credit stopped expanding this week too – perhaps higher rates resulted in fewer loans? Or maybe it was something else.
Gold moved slightly lower, dropping 5.20 (-0.25%) to 2038.70. I keep talking about open interest – here’s a chart with OI (blue line) added. OI is lower now (at gold=2039) than it was back in Oct 2022 – when gold was trading almost $400 cheaper. While OI and “commercial shorts” aren’t exactly the same, OI gets updated daily – and it suggests that the level of short interest for gold is much lower than it was back in 2022. “Something has changed” – and curiously, this happened more or less as gold has moved above 2000.
I’ve been saying this for a while: “someone” doesn’t want to short gold right now. And this (price-bullish) situation appears to be getting “worse” (i.e. better for the goldbugs) as goes on.
Silver fell 0.20 (-0.89%) to 22.59. Most of the losses came on Monday – with silver recovering much of the losses by the end of the week. Silver continues to be weak – but it is stronger than the “other metals.” Unlike gold, silver’s Open Interest continues to rise as price declines. This is not normal; the usual pattern is for the banksters to close their short positions during price declines, But for the past month, OI has continued rising while price has declined.