[More above…this is a snippet]
This week we saw some incredible progress in the election arena – literally the day after the primary-unburdened Cackles was Crowned by the Oligarchy-DNC. Assuming the Unity Party principals remain un-assassinated, it likely removes “Cackles Autocracy” from our 2025-2028 Bingo Card, and I suspect running another “inside job” at the Secret Service is much more risky now; a collection of totally disgusted whistleblowers might just appear ahead of time. And I’d guess local law enforcement is generally pro-Unity (anyone remember “Defund the Police”?) so a “lone gunman 2.0” is a much more dangerous op now for “them” to run. It might just lead to wholesale disclosure.
However, there remain a bunch of other uncertainty issues.
These include:
- Japan is on the edge of blowing up; the Debt/GDP is 264%, the population is rapidly aging, and there’s all the vax injury, and they’ve done 0% rates plus extend-and-pretend for 30 years. What’s the snowflake that launches the “Japan bank default” avalanche? It will be some sort of confidence collapse – but I have no idea what the trigger will be. We’ll probably see it first in JPY/USD.
- China’s popping 30-year property bubble, the aging population, plus youth unemployment – it too appears to be on the edge of blowing up. If you ignore all the local government debt, much of which will blow up due to the property bubble pop, China’s debt/GDP is 84%. This resulting banking/property uncertainty is probably why Mainland Oligarchs are pouring into gold. Irritatingly, Taiwan’s Debt/GDP is 22%. Is any Mainland cash flowing to Taiwan?
- US recession, leading to commercial real estate defaults, leading to regional bank defaults. My guess is, a US CBDC probably won’t happen (Unity Party), and (on a limb) neither will the Great Taking – unless it all happens in the next 4 months – but regional bank deposits might be at risk.
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