Dave Pare: Gold Is Looking Strong

This week, PeakProsperity.com's own precious metals analyst, Dave Pare, sits down to the microphone.

Better known on the site as davefairtex, he joins Chris to discuss his current outlook for gold and silver, his approach to building market models, and how he balances fundamentals versus technical analysis in assembling his macro views.

Dave has been a daily contributor to the site for years — not just with his precious metals commentary, but also with thoughtfully constructed comments on a host of topics. His opinions are pointed, and occasionally controversial. But his ability to always challenge readers to think make him widely respected, even by those who don't agree with him.

In this podcast, we get the chance to learn much about the man behind the keyboard. It's well worth the listen:

I'm a software engineer. I went to UC-San Diego and then went into industry and did lots of different things. I was an individual contributor, an architect, a tech manager and then I found Peak Prosperity, and that sort of sidetracked my whole life. 

In my training as a trader, you can’t be over-focused on whatever your idea is of where things should be going, or where you think they should be, or what the value should be. Prices really do have to dictate what your reaction is. Prices in some sense are your reality.

 

That isn’t to say they reflect the reality of the real world; but they are your arena. If you ignore prices, you lose money. And, so from a standpoint of trading, prices are it. Prices determine whether or not you fail or succeed, whether or not your trade was good or bad. And, so in that sense, prices are everything.

But from the standpoint of are we going to use these prices as predictors of our future — are we going to find more oil? are we going to do more of this or more of that? — well, prices are largely irrelevant. You’re playing at forecasting: what's the world going to look like in 20 years? That’s out of my paygrade. What I deal with are my daily prices. It’s really more a question of: OK, so am I going to succeed or fail based on what I see going on right now? 

Again, I have a daily market commentary, and so it's a daily timeframe. And, so that’s the other piece of this. I mean, when I sit here and I do commentary about gold and then I say: Well, the trend is this. If you step and look at the past 3-to-6-months , you can say, Well, gosh, with negative rates, gold looks pretty good. I really do think gold is quite strong right now, especially if you compare it to where we were last year.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Dave Pare (55m:49s)