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Adam Taggart

Robert Rapier: The Scientific Challenges to Replacing Oil with Renewables

So, assuming the Peak Oil camp is on to something, what's the likelihood for a disruption-free transition to another energy source that can replace the energy output we currently enjoy from oil? There's no shortage of promising claims from new laboratory experiments, and there is a lot of optimism in political and entrepreneurial circles that renewable, alternative forms of energy (wind, solar, biofuels, etc) may be able to fill the "energy gap" in time. How realistic are these hopes?

Not very, says Robert Rapier, energy specialist and Chief Technology Officer of Merica International.

The problem is one of return on invested energy. It is extremely difficult to create fuels with the same energy-density Nature has concocted over thousands of millennia without using up as much (or more) energy in the process.

Robert Rapier: The Scientific Challenges to Replacing Oil with Renewables

Not very, says Robert Rapier, energy specialist and Chief Technology Officer of Merica International.

Off The Cuff: Give Thanks You Don’t Live In Greece

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish pontificate on:

The Options for Greece
- Which path should Greece choose at this point? Whichever one it is, it’s not going to feel good.
Weakness in the Banks
- 2008-style red flags are increasing. What risk is the banking system facing at this point?
The promise of China and the Emerging Markets
- More signs of Asian slowdown continue to appear.

With the US Thanksgiving holiday upon us, Chris and Mish discuss the latest concerning data on the European credit crisis, and give particular thanks that they are not the one’s faced with the choices confronting Greece. There are a limited number of options left on the table this time (austerity; high/hyperinflation; outright default); none of them have pleasant repercussions to live through.

Off The Cuff: Give Thanks You Don’t Live In Greece

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish pontificate on:

The Options for Greece
- Which path should Greece choose at this point? Whichever one it is, it’s not going to feel good.
Weakness in the Banks
- 2008-style red flags are increasing. What risk is the banking system facing at this point?
The promise of China and the Emerging Markets
- More signs of Asian slowdown continue to appear.

Sharing Our Virtual Thanksgiving Table

The core of this site is its community. Having conscientious discussion about a post-Peak Oil future with smart, supportive, and experienced minds from all over the planet is an incredibly valuable resource.

At Thanksgiving time on this site, we like to reflect on the good fortune we share: that Chris had the courage to share his Crash Course vision with the world, that this like-minded community has flourished around it, and that we still have the gift of time to make progress in our resiliency-building preparations.

So, let’s make the most of the “virtual” Thanksgiving table we’ve created here at this site, and if you have a moment today, share a thought, story, or photo of what you’re thankful for this season.

Sharing Our Virtual Thanksgiving Table

Off The Cuff: Europe’s Destiny Hangs In the Balance

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish investigate:

Europe’s precarious plight
- It’s all in the hands of the ECB at this point. Will it print? And if so, will it print enough to matter?
Corporations and The Stock Market
- Are malinvestments on the rise?
The Congressional Supercommittee
- Will it deliver a plan of any meaning by the approaching deadline?

Chris has just returned from Spain and is amazed at how serene the scene remains there despite the severe deterioration of the European economy over the past several weeks. Mish concurs that a major ‘wake up call’ to the status quo is coming in the near term.

Off The Cuff: Europe’s Destiny Hangs In the Balance

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish investigate:

Europe’s precarious plight
- It’s all in the hands of the ECB at this point. Will it print? And if so, will it print enough to matter?
Corporations and The Stock Market
- Are malinvestments on the rise?
The Congressional Supercommittee
- Will it deliver a plan of any meaning by the approaching deadline?

Gordon Chang: The Reasons for China’s Imminent Bust

The global dominant narrative about China is wrong, claims Gordon Chang. Don't expect it to be the 'pocketbook of last resort' that will rescue world markets from their current malaise.

And don't expect its remarkable economic growth to continue. In fact, expect a "hard landing" for China – and soon.

Forbes.com columnist and international lawyer Gordon Chang has spent much of his time since the early 1980s working and living in China. His primary knowledge of the country and his relationships there give him a superior understanding to how its economy is actually faring than many analysts based in the West. And what he sees today doesn't inspire confidence.

We are seeing the first real signs of slowdown in China's economic growth looking at the year-over-year numbers for the past several months. Car sales have decreased nearly 5% since last year, and property values are beginning to plummet in key markets (30% in October alone in Shanghai).

Gordon Chang: The Reasons for China’s Imminent Bust

The global dominant narrative about China is wrong, claims Gordon Chang. Don't expect it to be the 'pocketbook of last resort' that will rescue world markets from their current malaise.

And don't expect its remarkable economic growth to continue. In fact, expect a "hard landing" for China – and soon.

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher for Precious Metals

Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.

But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.

For him, it's a straightforward mathematical certainty that the global economy must collapse under the weight of the excessive (and exponentially compounding) credit amassed over the past several decades. The debt is simply too large to be serviced.

As a growing number of analysts (including Chris) are predicting, Turd sees the replacement of the world's current monetary regimes as the endgame to this story. And he believes we are watching that endgame unfold in real-time now.

In this interview with Chris, Turd discusses his reasons why gold and silver offer the best prospect for preserving wealth through the coming devaluation of world currencies, despite his strong conviction that the markets for these metals are heavily price-manipulated.

Turd Ferguson: The Inexorable March Higher for Precious Metals

Turd Ferguson is a funny guy.

But there's one thing this irreverent, acerbically goofball forecaster is stone-cold serious about: the need to build personal exposure to the precious metals.

Off The Cuff: Markets In Revolt

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish cover:

Yesterday’s Market Carnage
- Are we seeing an important shift in investor sentiment?
The Future of Europe
- Can the Eurozone remain intact? If not, what does that mean?
How This Will End
- Deflation or currency collapse? (or both?)
- Where should investors looking to preserve purchasing power put their capital?

Chris and Mish have been amazed at how the equity markets have continued to levitate of late, given the absolutely horrible news over the past few weeks. Well, wonder no more. Blow-out spreads in European bond markets and today’s equity market carnage are a wake-up call that — finally — investors are starting to appreciate the unsustainability of the system.

Off The Cuff: Markets In Revolt

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish cover:

Yesterday’s Market Carnage
- Are we seeing an important shift in investor sentiment?
The Future of Europe
- Can the Eurozone remain intact? If not, what does that mean?
How This Will End
- Deflation or currency collapse? (or both?)
- Where should investors looking to preserve purchasing power put their capital?

Off The Cuff: The Only Way To Win Is Not To Play The Game

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish zero in on:

The Europe Disaster
- With the the yields on sovereign debt skyrocketing and Greece potentially rejecting the recently-announced bailout plan, is the European financial system in danger of collapsing in the near term?
MF Global
- What’s the significance of the unexpected and instant collapse of this key broker?

Unlike during the past several weeks, the markets are now finally beginning to react negatively to the growing amount of bad data and developments.

Off The Cuff: The Only Way To Win Is Not To Play The Game

PREVIEW

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish zero in on:

The Europe Disaster
- With the the yields on sovereign debt skyrocketing and Greece potentially rejecting the recently-announced bailout plan, is the European financial system in danger of collapsing in the near term?
MF Global
- What’s the significance of the unexpected and instant collapse of this key broker?

Unlike during the past several weeks, the markets are now finally beginning to react negatively to the growing amount of bad data and developments.

Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death of the Dollar

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system.

So says Eric Janszen, economic and financial market analyst and proprietor of iTulip.com. In chronicling the decline of the global economy over the past decade, Eric has formulated a framework called the "Ka-POOM" theory, which endeavors to understand how the immense run-up in global debt will be resolved.

In short, it looks at the credit bubble that began in the early 1980's, started accelerating in 1995, and has now reached epic proportions. The amounts are so staggering at this stage that Eric believes it is too politically undesirable to let natural market adjustments clear them away — the magnitude of the deflationary pain this would create is simply unacceptable for politicians looking to get re-elected. The only other available option is to service these debts via a dramatically devalued currency. Hence the key role the Fed is playing today.

The Fed is at the epicenter of this process, intervening heavily to keep the natural corrective market forces at bay. In this, it has a dual strategy. The first is to keep asset prices high (i.e., fight asset deflation), which it is doing by keeping interest rates historically low. The second is to keep wage and commodity costs under control, which it primarily does via devaluing the currency (maintaining a "weak dollar").

And, of course, through its intervention, the Fed is doing all it can to keep the current financial system in place to perpetuate the process for as long as possible. The end result is a fundamental shift in risk from Wall Street to the taxpayer.

So the big question is: How long can this last? Is there a point at which confidence in the system breaks and market forces finally overwhelm the intervention?

Eric Janszen: We Are Witnessing The Death of the Dollar

What do you get when the producer of the world's reserve currency takes on too much debt? Nothing less than the end of the US Treasury-based monetary system.

So the big question is: How long can this last? Is there a point at which confidence in the system breaks and market forces finally overwhelm the intervention?

Paul Brodsky: The Seeds of Our Destruction Were – And Still Are – Sown in the Bond Markets

Paul Brodsky does not trust the bond markets. That position may seem strange coming from someone who has spent most of his professional career trading bonds, but it's precisely this insider knowledge that has led him to start directing investors to safer harbors.

In fact, he thinks our credit system is so far out of control that it will cause a massive — and largely unavoidable, at this point — devaluation of the US dollar (and most other fiat currencies, as well).

In our interview with Paul, we asked him to explain the reasons for his concern and to detail how he sees a bond market breakdown unfolding. At the heart of the matter is the run-up in overnight systemic repurchase agreements among banks that started in 1994, which goosed the ensuing credit-driven buying orgy in our economy and has left the system much more vulnerable to exogenous shocks as a result: