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charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • Why the woes of the middle class will worsen from here
  • The tax-burdened middle class vs the "dependent" class that pays no taxes
  • The pinched middle class vs the gluttonous plutocrats
  • How the many ensuing class wars will end

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Coming Class Wars, It's Time To Worry available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we briefly surveyed the nature of class war in advanced capitalism, starting with the Marxist analysis that such conflict was inevitable. We then moved to the present: the Grand Truce that produced the middle class is eroding, social mobility is declining, and a sharp economic and cultural chasm has opened between the unprotected working class and the protected upper-middle class.

Why Is the Middle Class Eroding?

The big question is: why is the middle class eroding? Why is the longstanding accord between labor and capital breaking down? 

Peter Turchin’s recent book Ages of Discord sheds light on the historical context.  History’s economic and social cycles can be divided into two fundamental phases: integrative eras in which cooperation between competing forces is rewarded and disintegrative eras in which cooperation dissolves into conflict and discord.

Turchin’s analysis identifies three key drivers of social and economic disintegration:

1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages

2. An overproduction of parasitic (unproductive) Elites

3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, declining tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)

 

It’s clear that globalization, open immigration and automation are generating an oversupply of labor that is suppressing wages, especially for the lower-skilled work force (the working class).

The entitled upper-middle class that expects…

The Class War Playbook
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Why the woes of the middle class will worsen from here
  • The tax-burdened middle class vs the "dependent" class that pays no taxes
  • The pinched middle class vs the gluttonous plutocrats
  • How the many ensuing class wars will end

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Coming Class Wars, It's Time To Worry available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we briefly surveyed the nature of class war in advanced capitalism, starting with the Marxist analysis that such conflict was inevitable. We then moved to the present: the Grand Truce that produced the middle class is eroding, social mobility is declining, and a sharp economic and cultural chasm has opened between the unprotected working class and the protected upper-middle class.

Why Is the Middle Class Eroding?

The big question is: why is the middle class eroding? Why is the longstanding accord between labor and capital breaking down? 

Peter Turchin’s recent book Ages of Discord sheds light on the historical context.  History’s economic and social cycles can be divided into two fundamental phases: integrative eras in which cooperation between competing forces is rewarded and disintegrative eras in which cooperation dissolves into conflict and discord.

Turchin’s analysis identifies three key drivers of social and economic disintegration:

1. An over-supply of labor that suppresses real (inflation-adjusted) wages

2. An overproduction of parasitic (unproductive) Elites

3. A deterioration in central state finances (over-indebtedness, declining tax revenues, increase in state dependents, fiscal burdens of war, etc.)

 

It’s clear that globalization, open immigration and automation are generating an oversupply of labor that is suppressing wages, especially for the lower-skilled work force (the working class).

The entitled upper-middle class that expects…

Executive Summary

  • Why No Nation Truly Has Full Control Over Its Currency
  • Why Sovereign Efforts To Control Currencies Is Driving Capital Into Digital Currencies
  • The Driver's Of Digital Currency & Value
  • Calculating Bitcoin's Fair Value

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The U.S. Dollar And Bitcoin Keep Rising available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the dynamics of demand and utility that drive the valuation of any tradeable good, service, commodity and currency.  We established that it’s impossible to understand how a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar can retain a value above its tangible value of zero unless we accept its utility value and its non-tangible sources of value, i.e. the wealth and wealth generation of the issuing nation and state.

We now turn to the second half of the question posed in Part 1: Why isn’t the market value of a digital currency such as bitcoin zero?

Or perhaps more interestingly: How high might the price of bitcoin go?

To answer this question, we must investigate another question: Can any state control the value of its currency and its place in the global economy? I suggest the answer is no. Beneath a surface veneer of status quo continuity, nations and states are losing the ability to control their role in the global economy and thus the utility of their currency.

To understand why, we turn to socio-historian Immanuel Wallerstein.

Who Controls a Rapidly Changing World-System?

Wallerstein is recognized for advancing the concept of world-system, his term for what I call a global Mode of Production, i.e., the political, social, financial and economic system that governs the relations of power, labor, capital, trade and resources (broadly speaking, our understanding of Nature and the extraction of its resources).  In a recent essay China is Confident: How Realistic?, he observed that "countries (have lost the ability) to control what happens to them in the ongoing life of the modern world-system."

These two paragraphs get to the essence of his analysis…

Estimating Bitcoin’s Fair Value
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Why No Nation Truly Has Full Control Over Its Currency
  • Why Sovereign Efforts To Control Currencies Is Driving Capital Into Digital Currencies
  • The Driver's Of Digital Currency & Value
  • Calculating Bitcoin's Fair Value

If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The U.S. Dollar And Bitcoin Keep Rising available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the dynamics of demand and utility that drive the valuation of any tradeable good, service, commodity and currency.  We established that it’s impossible to understand how a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar can retain a value above its tangible value of zero unless we accept its utility value and its non-tangible sources of value, i.e. the wealth and wealth generation of the issuing nation and state.

We now turn to the second half of the question posed in Part 1: Why isn’t the market value of a digital currency such as bitcoin zero?

Or perhaps more interestingly: How high might the price of bitcoin go?

To answer this question, we must investigate another question: Can any state control the value of its currency and its place in the global economy? I suggest the answer is no. Beneath a surface veneer of status quo continuity, nations and states are losing the ability to control their role in the global economy and thus the utility of their currency.

To understand why, we turn to socio-historian Immanuel Wallerstein.

Who Controls a Rapidly Changing World-System?

Wallerstein is recognized for advancing the concept of world-system, his term for what I call a global Mode of Production, i.e., the political, social, financial and economic system that governs the relations of power, labor, capital, trade and resources (broadly speaking, our understanding of Nature and the extraction of its resources).  In a recent essay China is Confident: How Realistic?, he observed that "countries (have lost the ability) to control what happens to them in the ongoing life of the modern world-system."

These two paragraphs get to the essence of his analysis…

Executive Summary

  • Uniquely, the next president will not rely on the mainstream media to get his messages out
  • Future candidates no longer need the mainstream platform to raise campaign funds
  • The current “fake news” witchhunt is threadbare and already being debunked
  • How to identify truth from fiction (in any media outlet) & stay well-informed

If you have not yet read Part 1: Breaking Free From The Captured Media available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the transition from a corporate mainstream media serving a captive audience to the wide-open democracy of the Internet-enabled independent media.

How will this structural transition affect the political and social spheres going forward? How can you improve your ability to identify trustworthy information in the current landscape of controlled mass media & wildly fragmented alternative voices?

A President Who Is Not Beholden to the Mainstream Media

In a historically unprecedented show of homogeneity, the mainstream media unanimously endorsed Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential campaign. In essence, the MSM covered Trump only when his success forced them to, and when his gaffes and provocative comments made good copy.

Regardless of your views of the two candidates, this media-wide bias in favor of one candidate was remarkable.

Despite this media-wide endorsement, Hillary Clinton lost the Electoral College and the election. In my view, this is the first time in recent U.S. history where a unanimous endorsement of a candidate by the national media failed to persuade the overwhelming majority of voters. While many will blame the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for the defeat, or point to the Democratic candidate’s weaknesses, the reality remains that weak candidates with heavy media backing have won in the past.

In my view, the mainstream media’s failure to persuade the citizenry cannot be pinned solely on the losing party or candidate. It reflects a profound erosion of the MSM’s influence and trustworthiness.

Back when the mainstream media held a monopolistic lock on print, broadcast and radio content and distribution…

The Future Of Truth
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Uniquely, the next president will not rely on the mainstream media to get his messages out
  • Future candidates no longer need the mainstream platform to raise campaign funds
  • The current “fake news” witchhunt is threadbare and already being debunked
  • How to identify truth from fiction (in any media outlet) & stay well-informed

If you have not yet read Part 1: Breaking Free From The Captured Media available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the transition from a corporate mainstream media serving a captive audience to the wide-open democracy of the Internet-enabled independent media.

How will this structural transition affect the political and social spheres going forward? How can you improve your ability to identify trustworthy information in the current landscape of controlled mass media & wildly fragmented alternative voices?

A President Who Is Not Beholden to the Mainstream Media

In a historically unprecedented show of homogeneity, the mainstream media unanimously endorsed Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential campaign. In essence, the MSM covered Trump only when his success forced them to, and when his gaffes and provocative comments made good copy.

Regardless of your views of the two candidates, this media-wide bias in favor of one candidate was remarkable.

Despite this media-wide endorsement, Hillary Clinton lost the Electoral College and the election. In my view, this is the first time in recent U.S. history where a unanimous endorsement of a candidate by the national media failed to persuade the overwhelming majority of voters. While many will blame the Democratic National Committee (DNC) for the defeat, or point to the Democratic candidate’s weaknesses, the reality remains that weak candidates with heavy media backing have won in the past.

In my view, the mainstream media’s failure to persuade the citizenry cannot be pinned solely on the losing party or candidate. It reflects a profound erosion of the MSM’s influence and trustworthiness.

Back when the mainstream media held a monopolistic lock on print, broadcast and radio content and distribution…

Executive Summary

  • How the Deep State/"shadow government" came to be
  • A number of "quiet coups" have concentrated power over the decades
  • The moral hypocrisy of today's ruling elite and the public's growing rebellion against it
  • The key success factor the current people's coup will need in order to triumph

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Power Struggle Unfolding Before Our Eyes available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed six narratives that seek to “explain” Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 presidential election. We then distilled these narratives down into three categories: moral claims, elite machinations and structural economic/social issues.

I propose that the most comprehensive explanatory narrative of Trump’s improbable victory is The People Staged a Coup D’Etat.

Threats to Democracy

To understand this narrative, we must first examine the structure of the American system of governance and the previous “quiet coups” that consolidated power in new elites.

In broad brush, the U.S. Republic was designed to be run by elites—hence the Electoral College and the bicameral legislature with a senate overseeing the rabble of the House of Representatives.

The founders—particularly James Monroe and his allies—were acutely aware that the greatest threats to an enduring democracy were a tyranny of the majority, a majority that undermined the civil liberties for all, or an elite whose powers could not be constrained.  This is the purpose of the balance of powers between the Executive, legislative and judicial branches of the federal government.

But these structural efforts to restrain a tyranny of the majority or an above-the-law ruling elite, the U.S. has experienced both a tyranny of the majority—the Jim Crow racial discrimination that was institutionalized in the Southern states until the mid-1960s—and a ruling elite that is above the law.

I would argue that the current ruling elite (neocon, neoliberal) personified by Hillary Clinton, is effectively a force unto itself, i.e. above the law.

The roots of this ruling elite’s expansive power can be traced to the 1940s rise of the National Security State, the catch-all term for the institutions (CIA, Department of Defense) established by…

Why The Ruling Elite Are Becoming Frightened
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • How the Deep State/"shadow government" came to be
  • A number of "quiet coups" have concentrated power over the decades
  • The moral hypocrisy of today's ruling elite and the public's growing rebellion against it
  • The key success factor the current people's coup will need in order to triumph

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Power Struggle Unfolding Before Our Eyes available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed six narratives that seek to “explain” Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 presidential election. We then distilled these narratives down into three categories: moral claims, elite machinations and structural economic/social issues.

I propose that the most comprehensive explanatory narrative of Trump’s improbable victory is The People Staged a Coup D’Etat.

Threats to Democracy

To understand this narrative, we must first examine the structure of the American system of governance and the previous “quiet coups” that consolidated power in new elites.

In broad brush, the U.S. Republic was designed to be run by elites—hence the Electoral College and the bicameral legislature with a senate overseeing the rabble of the House of Representatives.

The founders—particularly James Monroe and his allies—were acutely aware that the greatest threats to an enduring democracy were a tyranny of the majority, a majority that undermined the civil liberties for all, or an elite whose powers could not be constrained.  This is the purpose of the balance of powers between the Executive, legislative and judicial branches of the federal government.

But these structural efforts to restrain a tyranny of the majority or an above-the-law ruling elite, the U.S. has experienced both a tyranny of the majority—the Jim Crow racial discrimination that was institutionalized in the Southern states until the mid-1960s—and a ruling elite that is above the law.

I would argue that the current ruling elite (neocon, neoliberal) personified by Hillary Clinton, is effectively a force unto itself, i.e. above the law.

The roots of this ruling elite’s expansive power can be traced to the 1940s rise of the National Security State, the catch-all term for the institutions (CIA, Department of Defense) established by…

Executive Summary

  • The systemic markers that precede collapse
  • The approaching end of our current 'unlimited growth' paradigm
  • Is a collapse inevitable? Or can we evolve gracefully to a new model?
  • The opportunity within the coming change

If you have not yet read Part 1: What Triggers Collapse? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What Triggers Collapse?

Many authors (Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, Thomas Homer-Dixon, David Hackett Fischer,   Michael Grant and Peter Turchin, to name a few) have delved into the question of why civilizations decay and fail.  The question of how nations/empires endure gets considerably less attention, but economic/social adaptability, the resilience of shared purpose/social cohesion, social mobility, the ability to generate reliable surpluses, secure trade routes, a professional army and navy to defend borders and trade routes, a merit-based a professional bureaucracy to collect taxes and oversee commerce, a stable form of money and competent leadership all play critical roles.

But history is replete with examples of nation-states and empires that possess all these positive attributes that still decay and collapse once critical supplies of energy and food fail, or invaders conquer essential territories or trade routes.

Can we generalize the dynamics that weaken a nation/empire to the point where collapse cannot be staved off?

The authors listed above have highlighted the following systemic dynamics…

Opportunity In Crisis
PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • The systemic markers that precede collapse
  • The approaching end of our current 'unlimited growth' paradigm
  • Is a collapse inevitable? Or can we evolve gracefully to a new model?
  • The opportunity within the coming change

If you have not yet read Part 1: What Triggers Collapse? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

What Triggers Collapse?

Many authors (Jared Diamond, Joseph Tainter, Thomas Homer-Dixon, David Hackett Fischer,   Michael Grant and Peter Turchin, to name a few) have delved into the question of why civilizations decay and fail.  The question of how nations/empires endure gets considerably less attention, but economic/social adaptability, the resilience of shared purpose/social cohesion, social mobility, the ability to generate reliable surpluses, secure trade routes, a professional army and navy to defend borders and trade routes, a merit-based a professional bureaucracy to collect taxes and oversee commerce, a stable form of money and competent leadership all play critical roles.

But history is replete with examples of nation-states and empires that possess all these positive attributes that still decay and collapse once critical supplies of energy and food fail, or invaders conquer essential territories or trade routes.

Can we generalize the dynamics that weaken a nation/empire to the point where collapse cannot be staved off?

The authors listed above have highlighted the following systemic dynamics…

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