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Image | Why We’re So Unhealthy
Why We’re So Unhealthy

I was fortunate to attend a permaculture conference, 'Better Soil, Better Food…A Better World' at Tara Firma Farms in Petaluma, California this past weekend that Adam Taggart (co-founder of Peak Prosperity) was responsible for producing. Joel Salatin (author of nine books, including Everything I Want To Do Is Illegal: War Stories from the Local Food Front and head farmer at Polyface Farms, Virginia), Paul Kaiser (Singing Frogs Farm, Sonoma, California), Toby Hemenway (author of Gaia's Garden: A Guide to Home-Scale Permaculture, 2nd Edition), and Robb Wolf (author of The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet) were on hand to explain the connections between the way our food is grown, processed and distributed and our ill-health.

Though these connections are common sense—we all know about garbage in, garbage out—the linkage between our extractive, monoculture agriculture and all the other subsystems of food and health remains opaque to most Americans.

Why We’re So Unhealthy

I was fortunate to attend a permaculture conference, 'Better Soil, Better Food…A Better World' at Tara Firma Farms in Petaluma, California this past weekend that Adam Taggart (co-founder of Peak Prosperity) was responsible for producing. Joel Salatin (author of nine books, including Everything I Want To Do Is Illegal: War Stories from the Local Food Front and head farmer at Polyface Farms, Virginia), Paul Kaiser (Singing Frogs Farm, Sonoma, California), Toby Hemenway (author of Gaia's Garden: A Guide to Home-Scale Permaculture, 2nd Edition), and Robb Wolf (author of The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet) were on hand to explain the connections between the way our food is grown, processed and distributed and our ill-health.

Though these connections are common sense—we all know about garbage in, garbage out—the linkage between our extractive, monoculture agriculture and all the other subsystems of food and health remains opaque to most Americans.

Image | Take Control: If You Don’t, Who Will?
Take Control: If You Don’t, Who Will?
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • We know how to farm regeneratively, not extractively, today. We just need to choose to do so.
  • Learning from the recent summit with Joel Salatin, Toby Hemenway & Singing Frogs Farm
  • The 3 most important components underlying our future health
  • What you can do to take control of your health in ways that will enhance your quality of life

If you have not yet read Why We’re So Unhealthy, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the structure of our self-organizing centralized food/illness/healthcare system. In Part 2, we look at what we can do to foster a better, healthier and ultimately much more affordable alternative system.

Permaculture and Regenerative Agriculture/Horticulture

I have to start by thanking Peak Prosperity’s Adam Taggart for organizing the permaculture conference we attended, Better Soil, Better Food…A Better World. As a long-time gardener, I learned some things that I can apply to my own postage-stamp urban garden (for example, never leave soil bare—plant seedlings immediately after harvesting the current crop of veggies).

I also learned about the perniciously destructive nature of our system of growing, processing, distributing and consuming food.  As noted in Part 1, the only possible result of our unhealthy food/illness/health system is ill-health.

The best way to become healthy is to opt out of the entire system. Removing oneself from one subsystem is a good start but insufficient, due to the interconnected nature of the system. Eliminating fast food, for example, is a good start, but the vast majority of packaged and convenience foods are made with the same ingredients as fast food.

This is difficult to do by design. As Joel Salatin explains…

Take Control: If You Don’t, Who Will?
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • We know how to farm regeneratively, not extractively, today. We just need to choose to do so.
  • Learning from the recent summit with Joel Salatin, Toby Hemenway & Singing Frogs Farm
  • The 3 most important components underlying our future health
  • What you can do to take control of your health in ways that will enhance your quality of life

If you have not yet read Why We’re So Unhealthy, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we examined the structure of our self-organizing centralized food/illness/healthcare system. In Part 2, we look at what we can do to foster a better, healthier and ultimately much more affordable alternative system.

Permaculture and Regenerative Agriculture/Horticulture

I have to start by thanking Peak Prosperity’s Adam Taggart for organizing the permaculture conference we attended, Better Soil, Better Food…A Better World. As a long-time gardener, I learned some things that I can apply to my own postage-stamp urban garden (for example, never leave soil bare—plant seedlings immediately after harvesting the current crop of veggies).

I also learned about the perniciously destructive nature of our system of growing, processing, distributing and consuming food.  As noted in Part 1, the only possible result of our unhealthy food/illness/health system is ill-health.

The best way to become healthy is to opt out of the entire system. Removing oneself from one subsystem is a good start but insufficient, due to the interconnected nature of the system. Eliminating fast food, for example, is a good start, but the vast majority of packaged and convenience foods are made with the same ingredients as fast food.

This is difficult to do by design. As Joel Salatin explains…

Image | The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme
The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.

The Year Of The Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme

In the lunar calendar that started February 8, this is the Year of the Red Monkey. I found this description of the Red Monkey quite apt:

"According to Chinese Five Elements Horoscopes, Monkey contains Metal and Water. Metal is connected to gold. Water is connected to wisdom and danger. Therefore, we will deal with more financial events in the year of the Monkey. Monkey is a smart, naughty, wily and vigilant animal. If you want to have good return for your money investment, then you need to outsmart the Monkey. Metal is also connected to the Wind. That implies the status of events will be changing very quickly. Think twice before you leap when making changes for your finance, career, business relationship and people relationship."

(Source)

In other words, the financial world will be volatile. And few will have the agility and wile to outsmart the market-monkey.

Image | Outsmarting The Monkey
Outsmarting The Monkey
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Beware of increasing financial Repression
  • Watch where the global flows of capital are heading
  • Expect further strengthening of the US dollar
  • Realize that cash is not a bad position in an extremely volatile market. Same with precious metals.
  • Why the best opportunities for capital preservation will be local

If you have not yet read The Year of the Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we looked at the ways fiscal and monetary authorities have attempted to stave off business-cycle washouts, i.e. recessions, and how the fixes have created a global Great Stagnation that is characterized by uncertainty  and volatility.

Here in Part 2, we investigate whether the global economy slide into recession, or will new policies such as capital controls save the day? And more importantly, we look to the asset classes where investors can seek safety from the red monkey's antics.

Capital Controls

The latest fixes being rolled out by central banks and governments are capital controls—essentially, policies designed to force people to spend their saved-up capital in the home country or invest it in whatever the central bank/state deems supportive of the hoped-for exit from the Great Stagnation.

Negative interest rates are a form of capital control: by charging interest on cash held in banks, governments hope to force people to spend their cash rather than “hoard” it.

Since cash currency is a safe haven from this expropriation, governments are actively seeking to eliminate or limit cash.

When private banks are revealed as insolvent, governments can recapitalize the banks by expropriating depositors’ cash held in the bank—“bail-ins.”

Another expropriation idea making the rounds among “serious policymakers” is forcing everyone with retirement savings to put a percentage of this cash in government bonds—in effect, funding state deficit spending by force.

All of these controls are forms of financial repression—limiting the freedom of people and their capital in order to prop up the privileges of a tiny financial and political elite at the top of the status quo.

To the degree that capital controls inevitably spark blowback and unintended consequences, they add to volatility by…

Outsmarting The Monkey
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Beware of increasing financial Repression
  • Watch where the global flows of capital are heading
  • Expect further strengthening of the US dollar
  • Realize that cash is not a bad position in an extremely volatile market. Same with precious metals.
  • Why the best opportunities for capital preservation will be local

If you have not yet read The Year of the Red Monkey: Volatility Reigns Supreme, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we looked at the ways fiscal and monetary authorities have attempted to stave off business-cycle washouts, i.e. recessions, and how the fixes have created a global Great Stagnation that is characterized by uncertainty  and volatility.

Here in Part 2, we investigate whether the global economy slide into recession, or will new policies such as capital controls save the day? And more importantly, we look to the asset classes where investors can seek safety from the red monkey's antics.

Capital Controls

The latest fixes being rolled out by central banks and governments are capital controls—essentially, policies designed to force people to spend their saved-up capital in the home country or invest it in whatever the central bank/state deems supportive of the hoped-for exit from the Great Stagnation.

Negative interest rates are a form of capital control: by charging interest on cash held in banks, governments hope to force people to spend their cash rather than “hoard” it.

Since cash currency is a safe haven from this expropriation, governments are actively seeking to eliminate or limit cash.

When private banks are revealed as insolvent, governments can recapitalize the banks by expropriating depositors’ cash held in the bank—“bail-ins.”

Another expropriation idea making the rounds among “serious policymakers” is forcing everyone with retirement savings to put a percentage of this cash in government bonds—in effect, funding state deficit spending by force.

All of these controls are forms of financial repression—limiting the freedom of people and their capital in order to prop up the privileges of a tiny financial and political elite at the top of the status quo.

To the degree that capital controls inevitably spark blowback and unintended consequences, they add to volatility by…

Image | How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root
How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root

Fisher found that a wage/price cycle often ends in transformational social upheaval. While proponents of his model have a wealth of historical examples to draw upon, they miss a key factor:  the vulnerability or resilience of the nation-state facing crises.

Some nations survive invasions, environmental catastrophes, epidemics and inflation without disintegrating into disorder. Something about these nation’s social/ economic /political order makes them more resilient than other nations. So rather than accept the proximate causes of disorder as the sole factors, we should look deeper into the social order for the factors behind a nation’s relative fragility or resilience.
How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root

Fisher found that a wage/price cycle often ends in transformational social upheaval. While proponents of his model have a wealth of historical examples to draw upon, they miss a key factor:  the vulnerability or resilience of the nation-state facing crises.

Some nations survive invasions, environmental catastrophes, epidemics and inflation without disintegrating into disorder. Something about these nation’s social/ economic /political order makes them more resilient than other nations. So rather than accept the proximate causes of disorder as the sole factors, we should look deeper into the social order for the factors behind a nation’s relative fragility or resilience.
Image | Triggers Of The Coming Social Disorder
Triggers Of The Coming Social Disorder
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Why revolutions start in the middle-class
  • How social disorder and new narratives are critical ingredients to regime change
  • How the central State will react to being challenged
  • Why the inevitable outcome of class conflict is an increasingly unstable social/economic order

If you have not yet read How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed three conventional models the sources of social disorder/revolution and focused on the under-appreciated model of suppressed social mobility.

In this Part 2, we examine the other half of this dynamic: the systemic misalignment of aspirations and opportunities.

The Wellspring of Revolution: An Aspirational Middle Class

One of the great ironies of Marx's historical blueprint for revolution is that revolutionary leaders don't arise from the peasantry or proletariat as he anticipated but from a middle class with aspirations and expectations that are unfulfilled by the status quo–in other words, a society with low social mobility.

Marx was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Trier in the Prussian Rhineland (now Germany), and studied at the universities of Bonn and Berlin at a time when only the elite attended university.

Lenin was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Simbirsk, Russia. His interest in revolutionary socialist politics was sparked by his brother's execution in 1887. He was expelled from Kazan State University for participating in protests.

Mao Zedong was the son of a wealthy farmer in Shaoshan, Hunan. Influenced by the events of the Xinhai Revolution of 1911 and May Fourth Movement of 1919, Mao converted to Marxism–Leninism while working at Peking University.

The building blocks of revolution are visible in each case: a middle-class upbringing of aspirations and higher education, and a grave injustice or movement aimed at rectifying social/economic/political injustice that acts as a trigger for revolutionary fervor and commitment.

The dynamic of revolution is coiled around the psychology of…

Triggers Of The Coming Social Disorder
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Why revolutions start in the middle-class
  • How social disorder and new narratives are critical ingredients to regime change
  • How the central State will react to being challenged
  • Why the inevitable outcome of class conflict is an increasingly unstable social/economic order

If you have not yet read How The Seeds Of Revolution Take Root, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we surveyed three conventional models the sources of social disorder/revolution and focused on the under-appreciated model of suppressed social mobility.

In this Part 2, we examine the other half of this dynamic: the systemic misalignment of aspirations and opportunities.

The Wellspring of Revolution: An Aspirational Middle Class

One of the great ironies of Marx's historical blueprint for revolution is that revolutionary leaders don't arise from the peasantry or proletariat as he anticipated but from a middle class with aspirations and expectations that are unfulfilled by the status quo–in other words, a society with low social mobility.

Marx was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Trier in the Prussian Rhineland (now Germany), and studied at the universities of Bonn and Berlin at a time when only the elite attended university.

Lenin was born into a wealthy middle-class family in Simbirsk, Russia. His interest in revolutionary socialist politics was sparked by his brother's execution in 1887. He was expelled from Kazan State University for participating in protests.

Mao Zedong was the son of a wealthy farmer in Shaoshan, Hunan. Influenced by the events of the Xinhai Revolution of 1911 and May Fourth Movement of 1919, Mao converted to Marxism–Leninism while working at Peking University.

The building blocks of revolution are visible in each case: a middle-class upbringing of aspirations and higher education, and a grave injustice or movement aimed at rectifying social/economic/political injustice that acts as a trigger for revolutionary fervor and commitment.

The dynamic of revolution is coiled around the psychology of…

Image | The Rising Threats To Our Health
The Rising Threats To Our Health

Though evidence of a looming global healthcare crisis is plainly visible, few seem to realize the consequences will be catastrophic to individuals, households and national economies.

Here is a list—by no means exhaustive—of major health issues threatening hundreds of millions of people globally.

 
The Rising Threats To Our Health

Though evidence of a looming global healthcare crisis is plainly visible, few seem to realize the consequences will be catastrophic to individuals, households and national economies.

Here is a list—by no means exhaustive—of major health issues threatening hundreds of millions of people globally.

 
Image | Putting Our Health Into Our Own Hands
Putting Our Health Into Our Own Hands
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • The obesity epidemic
  • Failings of the national healthcare system
  • New models for obtaining care
  • The basics of prevention

If you have not yet read The Rising Threats To Our Health, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed some of the major global health issues that will challenge households, economies and nation-states around the world as the global population ages and lifestyle/pollution/age-related chronic diseases affect hundreds of millions of people.

In Part 2, we look at issues that are specific to the U.S. and other developed economies, and consider the impacts of these issues on us as individuals: the bottom line is prevention is in our court.

Overweight/Obesity

While many of the problems listed in Part 1 are found mostly in developing economies (severe pollution, etc.), many others are pressing issues in both developing and developed economies (smoking, chronic lifestyle disorders such as metabolic syndrome, hypertension, heart disease, etc.)

The U.S. leads the world in percentages of overweight (generally defined as a body mass index (BMI) of over 25) and obese (BMI over 30) residents, though a number of countries are close behind.

 

 

While the specific causes of metabolic syndrome (pre-diabetes) and the causal connections of obesity to other conditions such as inflammation, sleep disorders, etc. are still under investigation, it’s clear that…

Putting Our Health Into Our Own Hands
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • The obesity epidemic
  • Failings of the national healthcare system
  • New models for obtaining care
  • The basics of prevention

If you have not yet read The Rising Threats To Our Health, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed some of the major global health issues that will challenge households, economies and nation-states around the world as the global population ages and lifestyle/pollution/age-related chronic diseases affect hundreds of millions of people.

In Part 2, we look at issues that are specific to the U.S. and other developed economies, and consider the impacts of these issues on us as individuals: the bottom line is prevention is in our court.

Overweight/Obesity

While many of the problems listed in Part 1 are found mostly in developing economies (severe pollution, etc.), many others are pressing issues in both developing and developed economies (smoking, chronic lifestyle disorders such as metabolic syndrome, hypertension, heart disease, etc.)

The U.S. leads the world in percentages of overweight (generally defined as a body mass index (BMI) of over 25) and obese (BMI over 30) residents, though a number of countries are close behind.

 

 

While the specific causes of metabolic syndrome (pre-diabetes) and the causal connections of obesity to other conditions such as inflammation, sleep disorders, etc. are still under investigation, it’s clear that…

Image | How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?
How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?

Our first observation is that trends in the USD tend to last for some time, so if this rally follows the pattern of previous rallies, it’s unlikely to have run its course in one year.

Secondly, previous rallies paused for a multi-month consolidation period before launching upward for the second leg of the long-term rally.

Thirdly, the USD rose sharply to previous peaks and then round-tripped back to the 80 level.

This raises the question: How high could the dollar rise in this rally?

 

 

 
How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?

Our first observation is that trends in the USD tend to last for some time, so if this rally follows the pattern of previous rallies, it’s unlikely to have run its course in one year.

Secondly, previous rallies paused for a multi-month consolidation period before launching upward for the second leg of the long-term rally.

Thirdly, the USD rose sharply to previous peaks and then round-tripped back to the 80 level.

This raises the question: How high could the dollar rise in this rally?

 

 

 
Image | Why The Coming Currency Crisis Will Push The USD Higher
Why The Coming Currency Crisis Will Push The USD Higher
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Other currencies are inflating faster than the USD
  • The USD is still backed by a preponderance of the world's assets
  • The potential for a global currency crisis is rising
  • Why USD will be the (initial) safe haven when it arrives

If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the technical evidence in support of a second move higher in a multi-year U.S. dollar rally. Here in Part 2, we ask: What conditions might drive such a move higher?

To answer this question, let’s start with another question: What’s scarce in the world of foreign exchange (FX)?

We ask this because capital, profits and gains flow to what’s scarce and in demand. This boils down to supply and demand: gains go to whatever is in high demand and scarce, and whatever is not in demand and over-supplied will lose value.

Supply and Demand

Like every other commodity, currencies respond to supply and demand: whatever currency is scarce and in demand will rise, while currencies that are in oversupply and not in demand will decline.

Though many presume the world is awash in dollars as a result of Federal Reserve quantitative easing, the reality is that expansion of USD via bank loans (credit) and Fed money-creation is modest compared to the expansion of other global currencies such as China’s renminbi (RMB), a.k.a. yuan.

Consider this chart of bank credit expansion in the U.S. and in China since the onset of the “Great Recovery” in early 2009: China’s bank credit has soared by 260%, a sum that is roughly 140% of China’s entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while U.S. bank credit rose by a modest 12% of U.S. GDP.

 

If we compare M2 money supply, we find…

Why The Coming Currency Crisis Will Push The USD Higher
 PREVIEW

Executive Summary

  • Other currencies are inflating faster than the USD
  • The USD is still backed by a preponderance of the world's assets
  • The potential for a global currency crisis is rising
  • Why USD will be the (initial) safe haven when it arrives

If you have not yet read Part 1: How Much Higher Can The U.S. Dollar Go?, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we reviewed the technical evidence in support of a second move higher in a multi-year U.S. dollar rally. Here in Part 2, we ask: What conditions might drive such a move higher?

To answer this question, let’s start with another question: What’s scarce in the world of foreign exchange (FX)?

We ask this because capital, profits and gains flow to what’s scarce and in demand. This boils down to supply and demand: gains go to whatever is in high demand and scarce, and whatever is not in demand and over-supplied will lose value.

Supply and Demand

Like every other commodity, currencies respond to supply and demand: whatever currency is scarce and in demand will rise, while currencies that are in oversupply and not in demand will decline.

Though many presume the world is awash in dollars as a result of Federal Reserve quantitative easing, the reality is that expansion of USD via bank loans (credit) and Fed money-creation is modest compared to the expansion of other global currencies such as China’s renminbi (RMB), a.k.a. yuan.

Consider this chart of bank credit expansion in the U.S. and in China since the onset of the “Great Recovery” in early 2009: China’s bank credit has soared by 260%, a sum that is roughly 140% of China’s entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while U.S. bank credit rose by a modest 12% of U.S. GDP.

 

If we compare M2 money supply, we find…

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