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Chris Martenson

Chris and I have been on a ship this week, presenting at The Real Estate Investor Summit At Sea.

We were able to steal away for an hour to sit down with fellow presenter Simon Black (founder of SovereignMan.com) and this excellent discussion ensued. We didn't have any agenda prepared; it's just us three riffing and sharing our thoughts on the most likely implications of the biggest macro risks that have our attention right now.

Simon Black: Priced To Fantasy

Chris and I have been on a ship this week, presenting at The Real Estate Investor Summit At Sea.

We were able to steal away for an hour to sit down with fellow presenter Simon Black (founder of SovereignMan.com) and this excellent discussion ensued. We didn't have any agenda prepared; it's just us three riffing and sharing our thoughts on the most likely implications of the biggest macro risks that have our attention right now.

Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical unity is fracturing as countries are forced to compete more
  • LIBOR is signaling a credit emergency in Europe
  • The market is sending signs a major war and/or a major recession may be imminent
  • The last remaining heroes for risk-on capital, the FANG stocks, are quickly becoming villains

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The central banks of the world have failed: colossally, completely and dangerously.  Yes, they will try to rescue the “markets” once again, as they did in 2011 and 2016 when things similarly looked to be falling apart.

The reason they might not be able to succeed this time?

They are out of maneuvering room. 

Nothing will happen if interest rates are clubbed back down a percent or two.  To do that, though, would require the same sort of lock-step coordination as prior times.  The ECB, BoJ and Fed would all have to operate seamlessly again. 

The most immediate of my concerns, even more than the tech-wreck that began a few weeks ago, is the rise in the LIBOR interest rate.  Why?  Because trouble always moves from the outside in.

Let’s do the math  With $350 trillion worth of assets tied to LIBOR, that means each 1% rise in the LIBOR rate translates into $3.5 trillion dollars of increased interest costs.

LIBOR is now at its highest rate since 2009, and it's spiking for reasons nobody can fully explain. In my mind, higher LIBOR means that there’s less trust and/or liquidity in the system.  It also means borrowing costs are heading up for…

Everything Is Suddenly Deteriorating, Fast
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Executive Summary

  • Geopolitical unity is fracturing as countries are forced to compete more
  • LIBOR is signaling a credit emergency in Europe
  • The market is sending signs a major war and/or a major recession may be imminent
  • The last remaining heroes for risk-on capital, the FANG stocks, are quickly becoming villains

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Future Ain't What It Used To Be, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The central banks of the world have failed: colossally, completely and dangerously.  Yes, they will try to rescue the “markets” once again, as they did in 2011 and 2016 when things similarly looked to be falling apart.

The reason they might not be able to succeed this time?

They are out of maneuvering room. 

Nothing will happen if interest rates are clubbed back down a percent or two.  To do that, though, would require the same sort of lock-step coordination as prior times.  The ECB, BoJ and Fed would all have to operate seamlessly again. 

The most immediate of my concerns, even more than the tech-wreck that began a few weeks ago, is the rise in the LIBOR interest rate.  Why?  Because trouble always moves from the outside in.

Let’s do the math  With $350 trillion worth of assets tied to LIBOR, that means each 1% rise in the LIBOR rate translates into $3.5 trillion dollars of increased interest costs.

LIBOR is now at its highest rate since 2009, and it's spiking for reasons nobody can fully explain. In my mind, higher LIBOR means that there’s less trust and/or liquidity in the system.  It also means borrowing costs are heading up for…

Since publishing my recent critique Russia Did It!, with all of Europe now backing the new 'dodgy dossier' episode, and Russia's ambassadors and foreign minister unable to to even have a reasonable dialog, I observe that the possibility of war between the West and Russia sadly continues to increase.  

As in 1911, there are a lot of inexplicably dumb reasons for all of this, so let's pick them apart one by one.

The War Drums Beat Louder
PREVIEW

Since publishing my recent critique Russia Did It!, with all of Europe now backing the new 'dodgy dossier' episode, and Russia's ambassadors and foreign minister unable to to even have a reasonable dialog, I observe that the possibility of war between the West and Russia sadly continues to increase.  

As in 1911, there are a lot of inexplicably dumb reasons for all of this, so let's pick them apart one by one.

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