Chris Martenson
By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).
Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources.
He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet.
Joseph Tainter: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
By popular demand, we welcome Joseph Tainter, USU professor and author of The Collapse Of Complex Societies (free book download here).
Dr. Tainter sees many of the same unsustainable risks the PeakProsperity.com audience focuses on — an overleveraged economy, declining net energy per capita, and depleting key resources.
He argues that the sustainability or collapse of a society follows from the success or failure of its problem-solving institutions. His work shows that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity and their energy subsidies reach a point of diminishing marginal returns. That is what we are going to be talking about today, especially in regards to where our culture is today, the risks it faces, and whether or not we might already be past the tipping point towards collapse but just don’t know it yet.
Executive Summary
- The case of the missing credit impulse
- The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
- How the situation is deteriorating fast
- Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse
An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth.
It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017. The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.
My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt.
Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.
Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…
Everything You Need To Know About The Credit Impulse
PREVIEWExecutive Summary
- The case of the missing credit impulse
- The credit impulse is the worst its been in recent history
- How the situation is deteriorating fast
- Why a credit impulse-driven recession is nigh
If you have not yet read Part 1: The Pin To Pop This Mother Of All Bubbles? available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Case Of The Missing Credit Impulse
An enormous oversight of nearly every major economist is the role of debt in both fostering current growth but also stealing from future growth.
It seems like such a simple concept, and it’s one I covered in great detail back in 2008 in the original Crash Course, but it remains a mysterious oversight of most here in 2017. The concept is easy enough; if I borrow money to increase my spending here today, it probably makes sense to take note of that if you're an economist responsible for tracking spending.
My debt-funded spending today is my lack of spending in the future when I pay down the debt.
Professor Steve Keen has this topic nailed beautifully. In it, he explains how even simply keeping a massive pile of previously accumulated debt at the same level as last year is a net negative on economic growth. A very simple and a very profound concept that still is not a part of conventional thinking.
Now here where things get interesting. And frightening. If we look at…
Executive Summary
- The economic data is getting darker fast
- The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
- Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
- As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us
Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.
In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.
For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion. The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.
But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.
And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…
Get Ready For The Coming Massive Correction
PREVIEWExecutive Summary
- The economic data is getting darker fast
- The over-indebtedness of the economy is the worst it's ever been
- Predicting the timing of the next major market correction
- As the risks mount, what should the concerned investor do?
If you have not yet read Part 1: Why The Markets Are Overdue For A Gigantic Bust available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The Data Says…Another Downturn Is Upon Us
Our view is that a massive market correction is coming, one that may well rip the financial markets apart, and cause very long-term and long lasting damage, possibly to the point of taking generations to repair in any meaningful sense.
In fact things may never actually recover to the current heights because recovery requires energy and there simply isn’t the net energy per capita that existed in the past.
For now, we see plenty of signs of fundamental economic weakness, and this is not surprising at this stage of the so-called economic expansion. The truth is this expansion has been phony to a large degree, and quite probably should have broken down many times in the past, most recently in early 2016.
But the central banks prevented that and we can all feel thankful at the extra time that has provided us to become more resilient under reasonably calm circumstances.
And yet, the one thing that central banks have never been able to do is…
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