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Chris Martenson

Image | Spin Cycle Set to “High”
Spin Cycle Set to “High”

The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data.

I recently wrote about the flaws in the survey reports, so I won’t spend more time here discussing why these reports are best taken with a very large grain of salt.

First, the survey data that was released today:

Spin Cycle Set to “High”

The economic news these days can be readily parsed into two separate types: increasingly positive “survey” data and increasingly worse “real” data.

I recently wrote about the flaws in the survey reports, so I won’t spend more time here discussing why these reports are best taken with a very large grain of salt.

First, the survey data that was released today:

Image | Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
 PREVIEW
Thursday, April 30, 2009

Executive Summary 

  • GDP report for 1Q2009 is a mess of Fuzzy Numbers.
  • The surprising 2.2% increase in PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, is discussed.
  • Ostensible signs suggest that the bottom is in, but the numbers do not line up at all with hard, factual data.
  • Sales tax receipts declined in first quarter.
  • The GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 is in serious conflict with actual state sales tax data.
  • Vehicle sales are down nearly twice as much as the 19% claimed by the BEA.
  • The extent to which investors are fooled by these government reports is the extent to which they risk losing a lot of money in the stock market.
  • Trust yourself.

As attendees of my seminars and regular readers know, I am deeply critical of the cheerleading spin cycle that exists between the government and the media, because it often inappropriately mixes facts, opinions, and beliefs. The aim, it would appear, is to foster optimism or confidence in the average investor.

Of course, as chronicled here many times, Wall Street lives off of the fees and products that it sells to retail investors, while the political machine favors a pacified, if not buoyant, electorate. Both of these aims are served by constantly spinning things to the upside.

While it is possible that "investors" are indeed optimistic, focusing on the "slightly more upbeat" report from the Fed and "signs that consumer spending rebounded," these claims deserve a bit of exploration.
Fuzzier Than Ever – The Latest GDP Report
 PREVIEW
Thursday, April 30, 2009

Executive Summary 

  • GDP report for 1Q2009 is a mess of Fuzzy Numbers.
  • The surprising 2.2% increase in PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditures, is discussed.
  • Ostensible signs suggest that the bottom is in, but the numbers do not line up at all with hard, factual data.
  • Sales tax receipts declined in first quarter.
  • The GDP report for the first quarter of 2009 is in serious conflict with actual state sales tax data.
  • Vehicle sales are down nearly twice as much as the 19% claimed by the BEA.
  • The extent to which investors are fooled by these government reports is the extent to which they risk losing a lot of money in the stock market.
  • Trust yourself.

As attendees of my seminars and regular readers know, I am deeply critical of the cheerleading spin cycle that exists between the government and the media, because it often inappropriately mixes facts, opinions, and beliefs. The aim, it would appear, is to foster optimism or confidence in the average investor.

Of course, as chronicled here many times, Wall Street lives off of the fees and products that it sells to retail investors, while the political machine favors a pacified, if not buoyant, electorate. Both of these aims are served by constantly spinning things to the upside.

While it is possible that "investors" are indeed optimistic, focusing on the "slightly more upbeat" report from the Fed and "signs that consumer spending rebounded," these claims deserve a bit of exploration.
Image | Misplaced Priorities and Misguided Decisions
Misplaced Priorities and Misguided Decisions

Yesterday my assistant Tito missed an important late afternoon meeting because the train he was on from NYC was delayed by more than 3 hours. The train slowly crawled north on tracks that were in too poor condition to support a higher speed. This is a regular occurrence on this line. Perhaps a few tens of millions would be required to bring these tracks up to something other than third-world condition. That money does not exist at the moment, so they will be “repaired” all the way back to “almost functioning,” just like last time.
Misplaced Priorities and Misguided Decisions

Yesterday my assistant Tito missed an important late afternoon meeting because the train he was on from NYC was delayed by more than 3 hours. The train slowly crawled north on tracks that were in too poor condition to support a higher speed. This is a regular occurrence on this line. Perhaps a few tens of millions would be required to bring these tracks up to something other than third-world condition. That money does not exist at the moment, so they will be “repaired” all the way back to “almost functioning,” just like last time.
Image | New Martenson Report: Survey Says….
New Martenson Report: Survey Says….

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members

Link to Survey Says….

Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls
  • Examples of influential survey data are given
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy
  • Beware the "spin"
  • The bottom is not in yet
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find. I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports. I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis. This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap. My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists. If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

 

New Martenson Report: Survey Says….

There’s a new Martenson Report ready for enrolled members

Link to Survey Says….

Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls
  • Examples of influential survey data are given
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy
  • Beware the "spin"
  • The bottom is not in yet
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find. I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports. I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis. This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap. My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists. If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.

 

Image | Survey Says…
Survey Says…
 PREVIEW
Sunday, April 19, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data.
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data.
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls.
  • Examples of influential survey data are given.
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy.
  • Beware the "spin."
  • The bottom is not in yet.
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely.

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find.  I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports.  I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis.  This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap.  My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists.   If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.
Survey Says…
 PREVIEW
Sunday, April 19, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Beware the gap between survey data and actual economic data.
  • The stock market appears to be responding to survey data, not actual data.
  • Surveys contain many potential pitfalls.
  • Examples of influential survey data are given.
  • Tax data is a relatively reliable indicator of the true state of the economy.
  • Beware the "spin."
  • The bottom is not in yet.
  • Remain skeptical and bide your time wisely.

The past few weeks have seen the stock market shrug off bad news and seize upon whatever glimmer of good news it could find.  I am of the opinion that the stock market rally of the past six weeks is long in the tooth and built upon some highly questionable, if not patently misleading, reports.  I understand the importance of consumer and investor psychology to our economy, and can even sympathize in some small way with those who spin data in an attempt to be helpful, but I still find the practice of self-deception to be distasteful.

It is my opinion that this is not the time to be lulled back into spending more, nor is it a good time to get back into the stock market, unless you are a highly skilled trader who is willing to track your positions on a minute-by-minute basis.  This is a great time to lighten up on any stock or 401k positions that you might have regretted holding onto about a month ago…

One key oddity for me these past two weeks was the startling gap that appeared between so-called survey data (discussed below), which mainly surprised to the upside, and actual economic data, which mainly surprised to the downside.

This report explores that gap.  My theory is that survey data is being ‘massaged’ to paint a brighter picture than actually exists.   If these "glimmers of life" that Obama recently referred to, or "green shoots" as Bernanke said, have you thinking of spending more money or wading back into the stock market, you especially need to read this report carefully.
Image | The Great Baby Boomer Asset Bubble
The Great Baby Boomer Asset Bubble

Below is a Martenson Report from February that I am now making freely available.  I referenced it in today’s Financial Sense Newshour broadcast with Jim Puplava.  

This report states my arguments for why our experiences with steadily rising asset prices, mainly for stocks and bonds and houses, over the 1980’s and 1990’s may have been as much a function of simple demographic pressures as anything else. 

It’s worth pondering.  

Where are we going, and what lies next? To address these questions, we need to know how we got here in the first place.

I want to share with you an interesting observation that I think will provide great clarity and insight into our current predicament, as well as indicate that our recovery, such as it is, will be protracted and incomplete.

The Great Baby Boomer Asset Bubble

Below is a Martenson Report from February that I am now making freely available.  I referenced it in today’s Financial Sense Newshour broadcast with Jim Puplava.  

This report states my arguments for why our experiences with steadily rising asset prices, mainly for stocks and bonds and houses, over the 1980’s and 1990’s may have been as much a function of simple demographic pressures as anything else. 

It’s worth pondering.  

Where are we going, and what lies next? To address these questions, we need to know how we got here in the first place.

I want to share with you an interesting observation that I think will provide great clarity and insight into our current predicament, as well as indicate that our recovery, such as it is, will be protracted and incomplete.

Image | America is Being Looted
America is Being Looted

As cynical as I am, I just can’t keep up.

That sentence is a paraphrase of a quote by Lily Tomlin that reads, “No matter how cynical you become, it’s never enough to keep up.”

I have long been a cynic of the bailouts, and, unfortunately, I cannot detect even the slightest sliver of daylight between the prior and current administrations. The reason, I fear, is captured by this quote from Simon Johnson, the former Chief Economist at the IMF and current professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management:

The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.

The unfortunate conclusion here is that our system and processes are fully “captured” by a tangled web of interests that serve themselves over everything else. Your future, my future, and our future is being systematically ruined by a self-interested group of insiders that can no longer distinguish between their good and the common good.

Here’s the latest string of outrages from this week.

America is Being Looted

As cynical as I am, I just can’t keep up.

That sentence is a paraphrase of a quote by Lily Tomlin that reads, “No matter how cynical you become, it’s never enough to keep up.”

I have long been a cynic of the bailouts, and, unfortunately, I cannot detect even the slightest sliver of daylight between the prior and current administrations. The reason, I fear, is captured by this quote from Simon Johnson, the former Chief Economist at the IMF and current professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management:

The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.

The unfortunate conclusion here is that our system and processes are fully “captured” by a tangled web of interests that serve themselves over everything else. Your future, my future, and our future is being systematically ruined by a self-interested group of insiders that can no longer distinguish between their good and the common good.

Here’s the latest string of outrages from this week.

Image | New Martenson Report: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
New Martenson Report: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)

In this Martenson Report for subscribers, I continue with Part II of our discussion on what the next oil supply crunch will mean and steps you might take today to lessen the impact.

Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)

Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
  • Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
  • Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
  • The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
  • Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
  • Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
  • What should you do?
  • Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list

In Part I of this report, I laid out the case that the
combination of declines in the production output of existing oilfields and a
lack of investment in new oil fields would lay the foundation for Oil Shock
III.

This report will examine Oil Shock III by painting a number
of possible scenarios, and then discuss steps you might take to weather the
storm, when it arrives. I will help you
translate current news and future projections into actionable information. My goal is to help you better understand what
is going on and what you can personally do about it.

New Martenson Report: Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)

In this Martenson Report for subscribers, I continue with Part II of our discussion on what the next oil supply crunch will mean and steps you might take today to lessen the impact.

Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)

Here’s a snippet:

Executive Summary

  • Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
  • Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
  • Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
  • The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
  • Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
  • Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
  • What should you do?
  • Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list

In Part I of this report, I laid out the case that the
combination of declines in the production output of existing oilfields and a
lack of investment in new oil fields would lay the foundation for Oil Shock
III.

This report will examine Oil Shock III by painting a number
of possible scenarios, and then discuss steps you might take to weather the
storm, when it arrives. I will help you
translate current news and future projections into actionable information. My goal is to help you better understand what
is going on and what you can personally do about it.

Image | Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
 PREVIEW
Sunday, April 12, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
  • Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
  • Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
  • The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
  • Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
  • Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
  • What should you do?
  • Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list

These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike.

We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away — it will be much sooner.

Within a few months, we are going to realize our visible inventories are really tight — squeaky tight — and what would really be inconvenient is to see a recovery in the economy."

Matt Simmons, Chairman of energy investment-banking firm Simmons & Co, March 26, 2009

Oil – The Coming Supply Crunch (Part II)
 PREVIEW
Sunday, April 12, 2009

Executive Summary

  • Explaining Oil Pricing – oil prices are "set at the margin"
  • Oil Storage – When it’s pumped out of the ground it has to go somewhere
  • Oil Price Behavior – slight supply and demand imbalances drive prices
  • The Total Shortfall – too little oil to support a robust recovery
  • Nothing Fails Like Success – the worst thing would be a rapid economic recovery
  • Timing – when will Oil Shock III arrive?
  • What should you do?
  • Investments, food, selecting a community, and an abbreviated buy list

These prices now are dangerously low. The lower prices fall, the less oil will be produced and the greater the chance of an oil spike.

We are three, six, maybe nine months away from a price shock. We are not talking about three to five years away — it will be much sooner.

Within a few months, we are going to realize our visible inventories are really tight — squeaky tight — and what would really be inconvenient is to see a recovery in the economy."

Matt Simmons, Chairman of energy investment-banking firm Simmons & Co, March 26, 2009

Image | No Raise, Fewer Jobs, Less Dividends, Less Credit = No Economic Growth.
No Raise, Fewer Jobs, Less Dividends, Less Credit = No Economic Growth.

Note: This blog post is a bit longer than usual…in it I add up the cumulative impacts of changes in income and credit on the overall economy.

Much is being trumpeted by the government and the press about “the bottom being in” and that a recovery is right around the corner. The recent stock market gains are being used as a primary source of evidence for this idea.

But is the stock market a good indicator of anything? We might note, somewhat critically, that the stock market did a terrible job of predicting the downturn (see below) and wonder why it should be any better at predicting the recovery.

No Raise, Fewer Jobs, Less Dividends, Less Credit = No Economic Growth.

Note: This blog post is a bit longer than usual…in it I add up the cumulative impacts of changes in income and credit on the overall economy.

Much is being trumpeted by the government and the press about “the bottom being in” and that a recovery is right around the corner. The recent stock market gains are being used as a primary source of evidence for this idea.

But is the stock market a good indicator of anything? We might note, somewhat critically, that the stock market did a terrible job of predicting the downturn (see below) and wonder why it should be any better at predicting the recovery.

Total 1968 items

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