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Chris Martenson

Image | Off the Cuff: Out of Order
Off the Cuff: Out of Order
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Fiscal Cliff Follies
    • Whatever 'solution' is enacted won't solve much
  • The Broken U.S. Education Model
    • We are graduating a generation of debt slaves
  • Dangerously Optmistic Stock Prices
    • Assuming elevated earnings in perpetuity
  • Pension Fund Posion
    • No way these funds will meet their actuarial targets

While there are no guarantees that any progress will emerge from the Obama-Boehner showdown, what is clear is that the impact of any agreements (higher taxes and spending cuts) struck on the "Fiscal Cliff" will be GDP-negative. So plan for the headwinds on our economy to strengthen in force next year.

Despite this certainty, as Chris and Mish look across the markets today, they see way too much 'pricing for perfection.' For example, corporate profits are far above their historical norm due to a number of extraordinary events over the past few years. But their underlying stocks are priced as if these elevated earnings levels will continue unabated far into the future.
Off the Cuff: Out of Order
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Fiscal Cliff Follies
    • Whatever 'solution' is enacted won't solve much
  • The Broken U.S. Education Model
    • We are graduating a generation of debt slaves
  • Dangerously Optmistic Stock Prices
    • Assuming elevated earnings in perpetuity
  • Pension Fund Posion
    • No way these funds will meet their actuarial targets

While there are no guarantees that any progress will emerge from the Obama-Boehner showdown, what is clear is that the impact of any agreements (higher taxes and spending cuts) struck on the "Fiscal Cliff" will be GDP-negative. So plan for the headwinds on our economy to strengthen in force next year.

Despite this certainty, as Chris and Mish look across the markets today, they see way too much 'pricing for perfection.' For example, corporate profits are far above their historical norm due to a number of extraordinary events over the past few years. But their underlying stocks are priced as if these elevated earnings levels will continue unabated far into the future.
Image | Off the Cuff: Will We Learn from Japan’s Missteps In Time?
Off the Cuff: Will We Learn from Japan’s Missteps In Time?
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Japan's Kamikaze Monetary Policy
    • The yen may be poised for destruction
  • Denial is a river in Germany, Greece, and Spain
    • Poor decisions being made in all three countries
  • Fiscal Cliff: Deal or No Deal?
    • What's most likely at this point

In this Thanksgiving edition of Off the Cuff, Chris and Mish are grateful for Japan. Why? Because Japan will likely collapse under its unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies before the U.S. does.

Much of the structural rot that ails the U.S. has been festering for much longer in Japan. With signs growing that the Japanese economy is nearing its predictable endgame, its implosion might be shocking enough to cause our leaders to think seriously that fate could be ours if we don't take radically different actions immediately.
Off the Cuff: Will We Learn from Japan’s Missteps In Time?
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Japan's Kamikaze Monetary Policy
    • The yen may be poised for destruction
  • Denial is a river in Germany, Greece, and Spain
    • Poor decisions being made in all three countries
  • Fiscal Cliff: Deal or No Deal?
    • What's most likely at this point

In this Thanksgiving edition of Off the Cuff, Chris and Mish are grateful for Japan. Why? Because Japan will likely collapse under its unsustainable monetary and fiscal policies before the U.S. does.

Much of the structural rot that ails the U.S. has been festering for much longer in Japan. With signs growing that the Japanese economy is nearing its predictable endgame, its implosion might be shocking enough to cause our leaders to think seriously that fate could be ours if we don't take radically different actions immediately.
Image | Jeff Clark: So How Many Ounces of Gold (or Silver) Should You Own?
Jeff Clark: So How Many Ounces of Gold (or Silver) Should You Own?

 

This week, Chris talks with Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst at Casey Research, where he serves as editor of their Big Gold newsletter.

They tackle head-on many of the questions weary precious metals investors are wondering after enduing the volatile yet range-bound price action of gold and silver over the past year:

  • Have the fundamentals for owning gold & silver changed over the past year? No
  • What are they? currency devaluation/crisis, supply-chain risk, ore grade depletion
  • How should retail investors own gold? Mostly physical metal, some quality mining majors (avoid the indices), and ETFs only for trading
  • Is gold in a bubble? No
  • Could gold get re-monetized? Quite possibly
  • Where is gold flowing? From the West to the East. At some point, capital controls will be put in place
Jeff Clark: So How Many Ounces of Gold (or Silver) Should You Own?

 

This week, Chris talks with Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst at Casey Research, where he serves as editor of their Big Gold newsletter.

They tackle head-on many of the questions weary precious metals investors are wondering after enduing the volatile yet range-bound price action of gold and silver over the past year:

  • Have the fundamentals for owning gold & silver changed over the past year? No
  • What are they? currency devaluation/crisis, supply-chain risk, ore grade depletion
  • How should retail investors own gold? Mostly physical metal, some quality mining majors (avoid the indices), and ETFs only for trading
  • Is gold in a bubble? No
  • Could gold get re-monetized? Quite possibly
  • Where is gold flowing? From the West to the East. At some point, capital controls will be put in place
Image | Unrealistic Expectations
Unrealistic Expectations
 PREVIEW

Mish and I were unable to connect this week, so here's what was on my mind for that podcast.

One of the fundamental aspects of life today is that so many people are unable or unwilling to understand the nature of the predicament, which leads to all sorts of understandable, but unproductive, outbursts.

Put simply, people don't want their stuff to go away.  This is perfectly normal and understandable; the only problem is that a lot of people's expectations are entirely unrealistic and were formed during a period of time when they were, individually or collectively as a nation, living well beyond their means.

Cutting back is hard, and necessary, and it seems that many people are unwilling to entertain either the prospect of having less or the inevitability of the coming decline in living standards…
Unrealistic Expectations
 PREVIEW

Mish and I were unable to connect this week, so here's what was on my mind for that podcast.

One of the fundamental aspects of life today is that so many people are unable or unwilling to understand the nature of the predicament, which leads to all sorts of understandable, but unproductive, outbursts.

Put simply, people don't want their stuff to go away.  This is perfectly normal and understandable; the only problem is that a lot of people's expectations are entirely unrealistic and were formed during a period of time when they were, individually or collectively as a nation, living well beyond their means.

Cutting back is hard, and necessary, and it seems that many people are unwilling to entertain either the prospect of having less or the inevitability of the coming decline in living standards…
Image | Why the Fed Will Fight to the End
Why the Fed Will Fight to the End
 PREVIEW

Given the choice between accepting the risk of future inflation and dealing with the immediate and destructive consequences of deflation now, our fiscal and monetary authorities will always choose inflation.  At least if 800 years of history and the last four years are any guide.

If I had to boil the whole thing down to one trite statement suitable for an election campaign, it might be, It’s the assets, stupid.

Here’s why.
Why the Fed Will Fight to the End
 PREVIEW

Given the choice between accepting the risk of future inflation and dealing with the immediate and destructive consequences of deflation now, our fiscal and monetary authorities will always choose inflation.  At least if 800 years of history and the last four years are any guide.

If I had to boil the whole thing down to one trite statement suitable for an election campaign, it might be, It’s the assets, stupid.

Here’s why.
Image | John Michael Greer: If the Four Horsemen Arrive, Offer Beer
John Michael Greer: If the Four Horsemen Arrive, Offer Beer

"We have a national mythology that limits are always bad. In fact, we have a national phobia of limits," wryly observes John Michael Greer: author, historian, conservationist and proprietor of the popular weblog The Archdruid Report. "We need to get past that."
John Michael Greer: If the Four Horsemen Arrive, Offer Beer

"We have a national mythology that limits are always bad. In fact, we have a national phobia of limits," wryly observes John Michael Greer: author, historian, conservationist and proprietor of the popular weblog The Archdruid Report. "We need to get past that."
Image | Off the Cuff: Awaking with a Whopper Hangover
Off the Cuff: Awaking with a Whopper Hangover
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Post-Election Plunge
    • Why are the markets selling off so hard?
  • The Return of the EuroCrisis
    • It worsened while we ignored it.
  • The Fiscal Cliff
    • Will we drive off it? And at what speed?
  • Gold's Resurgence
    • Showing strength as investors demand safety

America awoke on Wednesday with the Presidential election finally over and talk from the re-elected incumbent of moving 'forward' again.
Off the Cuff: Awaking with a Whopper Hangover
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Post-Election Plunge
    • Why are the markets selling off so hard?
  • The Return of the EuroCrisis
    • It worsened while we ignored it.
  • The Fiscal Cliff
    • Will we drive off it? And at what speed?
  • Gold's Resurgence
    • Showing strength as investors demand safety

America awoke on Wednesday with the Presidential election finally over and talk from the re-elected incumbent of moving 'forward' again.
Image | Four More Years
Four More Years
 PREVIEW

Obama has been re-elected. Given the hyperbole and highly emotional rhetoric of the election, it is hard to imagine that the U.S. is anything but slightly more divided than before, with the gaps and divisions widening more and more as time goes on.

The real tragedy in this story is that virtually none of the really big and important issues were even touched in this election cycle. One party pointed to how much they managed to increase military spending while the other promised to exceed even that. One side said they'd promote even faster drilling and extraction of our dwindling energy reserves and the other promised they could do it even faster. Both said they wanted more growth and more jobs and more, more, more.
Four More Years
 PREVIEW

Obama has been re-elected. Given the hyperbole and highly emotional rhetoric of the election, it is hard to imagine that the U.S. is anything but slightly more divided than before, with the gaps and divisions widening more and more as time goes on.

The real tragedy in this story is that virtually none of the really big and important issues were even touched in this election cycle. One party pointed to how much they managed to increase military spending while the other promised to exceed even that. One side said they'd promote even faster drilling and extraction of our dwindling energy reserves and the other promised they could do it even faster. Both said they wanted more growth and more jobs and more, more, more.
Image | Patrick Killelea: What Every Homebuyer (and Homeowner) Should Know Now
Patrick Killelea: What Every Homebuyer (and Homeowner) Should Know Now

For many, the collapse of the housing bubble was the trigger that began the era of economic slowdown Americans find themselves mired in.

But recently there have been growing reports in the media of a housing "recovery." So we've invited Patrick Killelea, founder of the popular housing site Patrick.net and author of The Housing Trap: How Buyers Are Captured and Abused and How to Defend Yourself, to clarify the situation.

The short answer is this: While there are some markets where home prices are back in line with both fundamental and historic norms, buyers still need to exert caution when making a purchase.

Patrick Killelea: What Every Homebuyer (and Homeowner) Should Know Now

For many, the collapse of the housing bubble was the trigger that began the era of economic slowdown Americans find themselves mired in.

But recently there have been growing reports in the media of a housing "recovery." So we've invited Patrick Killelea, founder of the popular housing site Patrick.net and author of The Housing Trap: How Buyers Are Captured and Abused and How to Defend Yourself, to clarify the situation.

The short answer is this: While there are some markets where home prices are back in line with both fundamental and historic norms, buyers still need to exert caution when making a purchase.

Image | Off the Cuff: Forces of Nature
Off the Cuff: Forces of Nature
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Behind the Bogus Jobs Numbers
    • Overestimates in the hundreds of thousands
  • The Massive Cost of Hurricane Sandy
    • The indirect costs are as concerning as the direct ones
  • Oh…Canada
    • No longer immune to the ills of its trading partners
  • The Fallible Fed
    • Out of arrows at this point?

The carnage of Hurricane Sandy provided a distraction this week from the election spectacle. Expect only a few more weeks of juiced-up numbers (e.g., jobs) and economic claptrap (the rebuilding from Sandy will be an economic boon and increase GDP!) before the unavoidable sinks in: There is no more carpet left to sweep things under. Recession is claiming nearly all of the G7 countries, the $20+ billion cleanup price tag from Sandy will be a sucker-punch to the already-toddering U.S. economy, and our leaders – irrespective of who wins the Presidential elections this month – are out of options. The forces of nature have been at bay long enough – and will now exert themselves, with prejudice.
Off the Cuff: Forces of Nature
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Behind the Bogus Jobs Numbers
    • Overestimates in the hundreds of thousands
  • The Massive Cost of Hurricane Sandy
    • The indirect costs are as concerning as the direct ones
  • Oh…Canada
    • No longer immune to the ills of its trading partners
  • The Fallible Fed
    • Out of arrows at this point?

The carnage of Hurricane Sandy provided a distraction this week from the election spectacle. Expect only a few more weeks of juiced-up numbers (e.g., jobs) and economic claptrap (the rebuilding from Sandy will be an economic boon and increase GDP!) before the unavoidable sinks in: There is no more carpet left to sweep things under. Recession is claiming nearly all of the G7 countries, the $20+ billion cleanup price tag from Sandy will be a sucker-punch to the already-toddering U.S. economy, and our leaders – irrespective of who wins the Presidential elections this month – are out of options. The forces of nature have been at bay long enough – and will now exert themselves, with prejudice.
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