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Chris Martenson

Image | Off the Cuff: The Heat Is On
Off the Cuff: The Heat Is On
 PREVIEW

 

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris opine on:

  • The Eurozone's tightening vice
    • ​The likelihood is increasing that the real moves will come under the declaration of a "financial emergency"
  • The deepening LIBOR scandal
    • ​The web of conspirators continues to expand, but will any indictments result?
  • Will extreme weather impact grain prices? 
    • ​Heat and drought may nix the current forecasts for a record harvest

As the temperature rises to broiling levels across the US, EU leaders are sweating about how to slow the solvency issues a growing number of Eurozone countries face. The latest machinations suggest there is little room left to maneuver in kicking the can further down the road, so Mish and Chris suspect "emergency measures" may be declared to ramrod unpopular measures through. Meanwhile, France's headlong descent into further socialism accompanied by the growing size of the LIBOR-fixing deceit make even the most sanguine wonder how Europe will possibly emerge from it's current woes without permanent damage to its stability.
Off the Cuff: The Heat Is On
 PREVIEW

 

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris opine on:

  • The Eurozone's tightening vice
    • ​The likelihood is increasing that the real moves will come under the declaration of a "financial emergency"
  • The deepening LIBOR scandal
    • ​The web of conspirators continues to expand, but will any indictments result?
  • Will extreme weather impact grain prices? 
    • ​Heat and drought may nix the current forecasts for a record harvest

As the temperature rises to broiling levels across the US, EU leaders are sweating about how to slow the solvency issues a growing number of Eurozone countries face. The latest machinations suggest there is little room left to maneuver in kicking the can further down the road, so Mish and Chris suspect "emergency measures" may be declared to ramrod unpopular measures through. Meanwhile, France's headlong descent into further socialism accompanied by the growing size of the LIBOR-fixing deceit make even the most sanguine wonder how Europe will possibly emerge from it's current woes without permanent damage to its stability.
Image | Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host
Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host

Joe Saluzzi, expert on algorithmic trading — also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT — returns as a guest this week to explain how the players behind this machine-driven process act as parasites that are destroying our financial markets (and, increasingly, even themselves).

Since Joe first spoke with us last year, HFT firms have only increased in size and share of market activity. Here are some staggering statistics on how influential they have become:

  • HTFs make up between 50-70% of the volume seen across market exchanges today.
  • 2% of the traders on many exchanges (HFTs, specifically) represent 80% of the volume.
  • A single large HFT firm (referred to as a Direct Market Maker) can account for 10%+ of a market's volume on a given day
  • Large HFT firms make between $8 to $21 billion a year.
  • HFT trades occur in milliseconds (i.e., a small fraction of the time it takes your eye to blink).

With such scale, speed, and profitability, HFTs have turned the market away from being an efficient price-setting mechanism and perverted it into a casino where the clientele of human investors gets fleeced.

Joe Saluzzi: HFT Parasites are Killing the Market Host

Joe Saluzzi, expert on algorithmic trading — also known as high-frequency trading, or HFT — returns as a guest this week to explain how the players behind this machine-driven process act as parasites that are destroying our financial markets (and, increasingly, even themselves).

Since Joe first spoke with us last year, HFT firms have only increased in size and share of market activity. Here are some staggering statistics on how influential they have become:

  • HTFs make up between 50-70% of the volume seen across market exchanges today.
  • 2% of the traders on many exchanges (HFTs, specifically) represent 80% of the volume.
  • A single large HFT firm (referred to as a Direct Market Maker) can account for 10%+ of a market's volume on a given day
  • Large HFT firms make between $8 to $21 billion a year.
  • HFT trades occur in milliseconds (i.e., a small fraction of the time it takes your eye to blink).

With such scale, speed, and profitability, HFTs have turned the market away from being an efficient price-setting mechanism and perverted it into a casino where the clientele of human investors gets fleeced.

Image | Off the Cuff: It’s Becoming Every Man for Himself
Off the Cuff: It’s Becoming Every Man for Himself
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris lean into:

  • Signs of fragmentation in Europe
    • Increasingly political leaders jettisoning Eurozone collectivism for what's best for their own country
  • The ticking pension bomb
    • US states, municipalities, and cities face unmeetable obligations
  • Fraud at the core
    • The Barclays LIBOR-fixing scandal shows how manipulated markets really are

They say that when the going gets tough, you learn what a person's true nature is. If that's so, we're learning that the bloviating European leaders are clueless opportunists with no real love or loyalty for the centralized European vision they've been selling to their populace for over a decade. Similarly, US public pension administrators and public officials are craven liars, still unwilling to admit to pensioners that poor stewardship, bad math, and generationally low interest rates have made it impossible to meet their actuarial commitments. Increasingly — and as epitomized by the recently- fraudulent fixing of the LIBOR market — all players are simply out to secure what they can for themselves before the system breaks.
Off the Cuff: It’s Becoming Every Man for Himself
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris lean into:

  • Signs of fragmentation in Europe
    • Increasingly political leaders jettisoning Eurozone collectivism for what's best for their own country
  • The ticking pension bomb
    • US states, municipalities, and cities face unmeetable obligations
  • Fraud at the core
    • The Barclays LIBOR-fixing scandal shows how manipulated markets really are

They say that when the going gets tough, you learn what a person's true nature is. If that's so, we're learning that the bloviating European leaders are clueless opportunists with no real love or loyalty for the centralized European vision they've been selling to their populace for over a decade. Similarly, US public pension administrators and public officials are craven liars, still unwilling to admit to pensioners that poor stewardship, bad math, and generationally low interest rates have made it impossible to meet their actuarial commitments. Increasingly — and as epitomized by the recently- fraudulent fixing of the LIBOR market — all players are simply out to secure what they can for themselves before the system breaks.
Image | I’m Keeping My Fingers Crossed for a Quiet Summer
I’m Keeping My Fingers Crossed for a Quiet Summer
 PREVIEW

I am hoping for a quiet summer so that all of us north of the equator can enjoy the warm, lazy months of July and August in peace and quiet. But I am concerned that this may not come to pass.

The daily drumbeat of bad news from Europe covers all fronts and is relentless. Rumors abound, confusion reigns, downgrades happen weekly and sometimes daily, unemployment is up, the economy is slipping, and it is entirely unclear if anybody there knows what to do.

Even as the stock markets somehow magically finding their footing on each new rumor turning back at each critical zone of support, while gold continues to languish, I find myself increasingly bearish as all the new data comes in on both the unfolding European credit crisis and the slowing global economy.

Here's the troubling information out of Europe:
I’m Keeping My Fingers Crossed for a Quiet Summer
 PREVIEW

I am hoping for a quiet summer so that all of us north of the equator can enjoy the warm, lazy months of July and August in peace and quiet. But I am concerned that this may not come to pass.

The daily drumbeat of bad news from Europe covers all fronts and is relentless. Rumors abound, confusion reigns, downgrades happen weekly and sometimes daily, unemployment is up, the economy is slipping, and it is entirely unclear if anybody there knows what to do.

Even as the stock markets somehow magically finding their footing on each new rumor turning back at each critical zone of support, while gold continues to languish, I find myself increasingly bearish as all the new data comes in on both the unfolding European credit crisis and the slowing global economy.

Here's the troubling information out of Europe:
Image | Senator Bill Bradley: Lack of Long-Range Planning Is Putting Our Future at Risk
Senator Bill Bradley: Lack of Long-Range Planning Is Putting Our Future at Risk

Former US Senator Bill Bradley believes a better tomorrow is within our grasp, despite the economic pain the middle class is experiencing today.

He wrote his new book We Can All Do Better to address the growing despondency and resentment he sees among Americans. With the right vision, leadership, and civic participation, he believes we can work our way back to prosperity and growth.

Chris was honored and excited to speak with the former Senator, particularly to uncover what awareness there is of the Three Es among our top political leaders. Not surprisingly for a longtime insider, Senator Bradley looks through the lens of working within the current system – i.e., if we can fix its shortcomings, it will solve our problems. Potential structural limits to growth, such as Peak Oil, are less bright on the radar.

There is much to learn here about what our Congressional leaders are focused on and what they are not. Listeners will undoubtly find points to agree with, and possibly others out-of-alignment with the concerns presented in the Crash Course. We expect an animated discussion to ensue in the Comments section below.

We take it as a good sign that widely-known veteran politicians such as Senator Bradley are increasingly standing up to admit "there is a problem" — that's the first step towards taking corrective action. And we're very thankful of the time the Senator has given to speak to our community.

Senator Bill Bradley: Lack of Long-Range Planning Is Putting Our Future at Risk

Former US Senator Bill Bradley believes a better tomorrow is within our grasp, despite the economic pain the middle class is experiencing today.

He wrote his new book We Can All Do Better to address the growing despondency and resentment he sees among Americans. With the right vision, leadership, and civic participation, he believes we can work our way back to prosperity and growth.

Chris was honored and excited to speak with the former Senator, particularly to uncover what awareness there is of the Three Es among our top political leaders. Not surprisingly for a longtime insider, Senator Bradley looks through the lens of working within the current system – i.e., if we can fix its shortcomings, it will solve our problems. Potential structural limits to growth, such as Peak Oil, are less bright on the radar.

There is much to learn here about what our Congressional leaders are focused on and what they are not. Listeners will undoubtly find points to agree with, and possibly others out-of-alignment with the concerns presented in the Crash Course. We expect an animated discussion to ensue in the Comments section below.

We take it as a good sign that widely-known veteran politicians such as Senator Bradley are increasingly standing up to admit "there is a problem" — that's the first step towards taking corrective action. And we're very thankful of the time the Senator has given to speak to our community.

Image | Off the Cuff: The Fed’s Increasing Impotence
Off the Cuff: The Fed’s Increasing Impotence
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris address:

  • Fed Fizzle
    • Even if/when the Fed decides to inject more liquidity, it's increasingly questionable whether that will have any real impact
  • Europe's Choice: Uncertainty or Panic
    • The day of reckoning is approaching, but Europe is showing us we still have time left to act
  • Crisis Fatigue
    • Don't deviate from your convictions. Just because something is taking longer than you expect doesn't mean it won't happen

The Fed disappointed the herd hoping for more QE (i.e., thin-air money printing) to be announced this week. Asset prices are drifting lower as a result, increasing the already-growing tension in world markets. Meanwhile the contagion in Europe seems to grow worse by the day. Even though it may feel tiring to stay ever-vigilant for a market dislocation, the risk is still worryingly high, so continue to remain on the defensive as best you're able.
Off the Cuff: The Fed’s Increasing Impotence
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris address:

  • Fed Fizzle
    • Even if/when the Fed decides to inject more liquidity, it's increasingly questionable whether that will have any real impact
  • Europe's Choice: Uncertainty or Panic
    • The day of reckoning is approaching, but Europe is showing us we still have time left to act
  • Crisis Fatigue
    • Don't deviate from your convictions. Just because something is taking longer than you expect doesn't mean it won't happen

The Fed disappointed the herd hoping for more QE (i.e., thin-air money printing) to be announced this week. Asset prices are drifting lower as a result, increasing the already-growing tension in world markets. Meanwhile the contagion in Europe seems to grow worse by the day. Even though it may feel tiring to stay ever-vigilant for a market dislocation, the risk is still worryingly high, so continue to remain on the defensive as best you're able.
Image | “More Stress Is Needed”
“More Stress Is Needed”
 PREVIEW

After Alice fell down the rabbit hole, nothing made sense anymore. A new logic reigned, and she had to adapt to it as readily as she could. Talking cats that disappeared except for their grin, caterpillars perched on magic mushrooms, and other oddities had to be encountered and dealt with.

Similarly, we find ourselves suddenly confronted with a fantastical menagerie. Such as the formerly inconsequential Greek interparty political wrestling matches becoming of critical importance to the fate of the entire world banking system, stock markets mainly discounting the likelihood and size of the next round of magic money-printing, a world that has decided Spain’s 6% deficit matters a lot while the US’s 8% deficit doesn’t matter at all, untrustworthy institutions that just abscond with client money without charge, and stock markets that are now mostly in the hands of robot machines trading in sub-millisecond cycles.

The signs of distress are obvious. The old forms of logic no longer work and the new logic cannot be traded reliably, as it owes its direction to pulses of fresh money and gyrating sentiment. All asset classes trade in lockstep, with nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. It’s either risk on or risk off, and knowing which might prevail at any given moment is now a 24/7 occupation, and a risky one at that.

The entire stock market is now simply living off of expectations of the future quantitative easing (QE) efforts, with another decision or announcement expected tomorrow at 2:15 EST.

This is the world we live in now, and hardly anybody even questions it anymore.
“More Stress Is Needed”
 PREVIEW

After Alice fell down the rabbit hole, nothing made sense anymore. A new logic reigned, and she had to adapt to it as readily as she could. Talking cats that disappeared except for their grin, caterpillars perched on magic mushrooms, and other oddities had to be encountered and dealt with.

Similarly, we find ourselves suddenly confronted with a fantastical menagerie. Such as the formerly inconsequential Greek interparty political wrestling matches becoming of critical importance to the fate of the entire world banking system, stock markets mainly discounting the likelihood and size of the next round of magic money-printing, a world that has decided Spain’s 6% deficit matters a lot while the US’s 8% deficit doesn’t matter at all, untrustworthy institutions that just abscond with client money without charge, and stock markets that are now mostly in the hands of robot machines trading in sub-millisecond cycles.

The signs of distress are obvious. The old forms of logic no longer work and the new logic cannot be traded reliably, as it owes its direction to pulses of fresh money and gyrating sentiment. All asset classes trade in lockstep, with nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. It’s either risk on or risk off, and knowing which might prevail at any given moment is now a 24/7 occupation, and a risky one at that.

The entire stock market is now simply living off of expectations of the future quantitative easing (QE) efforts, with another decision or announcement expected tomorrow at 2:15 EST.

This is the world we live in now, and hardly anybody even questions it anymore.
Image | Jim Puplava: Oil Is the New Federal Funds Rate
Jim Puplava: Oil Is the New Federal Funds Rate

Jim Puplava has made a decades-long career of interviewing hundreds of notable experts on the economy, energy, precious metals, geopolitics, agriculture, and other sectors that impact our future. 

The outlook he has developed as a result of all this input is less than sanguine. Jim concludes that economic growth will be constrained both by world governments' chronic addiction to spending more revenue than they take in and by the systemically rising costs of fossil-fuel-driven energy.

In terms of growth, he sees political leadership becoming less and less relevant in its ability to effect outcomes. In fact, he declares the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies than central bank interest rates. In his words, "Oil is the new Federal Funds rate."
Jim Puplava: Oil Is the New Federal Funds Rate

Jim Puplava has made a decades-long career of interviewing hundreds of notable experts on the economy, energy, precious metals, geopolitics, agriculture, and other sectors that impact our future. 

The outlook he has developed as a result of all this input is less than sanguine. Jim concludes that economic growth will be constrained both by world governments' chronic addiction to spending more revenue than they take in and by the systemically rising costs of fossil-fuel-driven energy.

In terms of growth, he sees political leadership becoming less and less relevant in its ability to effect outcomes. In fact, he declares the price of oil as now being more influential in stimulating or depressing sovereign economies than central bank interest rates. In his words, "Oil is the new Federal Funds rate."
Image | Off the Cuff: Contagion Within Europe
Off the Cuff: Contagion Within Europe
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Desperate Measures
    • The math behind the latest 'rescue' attempts is so broken it falls apart at first glance
  • How Much Time Do We Have Left?
    • The day of reckoning is approaching, but Europe is showing us we still have time left to act
  • Where to Park Capital
    • The options worth considering grow fewer in number, though Europeans should take action soon

Europe continues to figure prominently in Chris and Mish's minds at the moment. The action there is what's driving the world agenda right now, and the decisions taken to address the European crisis will have tremendous impact on the financial markets around the globe. Much is happening right now — but for longtime 'Off the Cuff' listeners, it's important to keep in perspective that little has actually changed. Europe's problem is a mathematical one. Too many bad loans were made. In practically every country. Steep losses will need to be taken. Taking those losses will place painful deflationary pressure on asset prices. The key question is: how much new money will central banks print to service and retire those debts?…
Off the Cuff: Contagion Within Europe
 PREVIEW

In this week's Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris discuss:

  • Desperate Measures
    • The math behind the latest 'rescue' attempts is so broken it falls apart at first glance
  • How Much Time Do We Have Left?
    • The day of reckoning is approaching, but Europe is showing us we still have time left to act
  • Where to Park Capital
    • The options worth considering grow fewer in number, though Europeans should take action soon

Europe continues to figure prominently in Chris and Mish's minds at the moment. The action there is what's driving the world agenda right now, and the decisions taken to address the European crisis will have tremendous impact on the financial markets around the globe. Much is happening right now — but for longtime 'Off the Cuff' listeners, it's important to keep in perspective that little has actually changed. Europe's problem is a mathematical one. Too many bad loans were made. In practically every country. Steep losses will need to be taken. Taking those losses will place painful deflationary pressure on asset prices. The key question is: how much new money will central banks print to service and retire those debts?…
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