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Chris Martenson

Image | Addison Wiggin: We Can’t Afford the Solutions Needed to Reverse Our Decline
Addison Wiggin: We Can’t Afford the Solutions Needed to Reverse Our Decline

"Everything is out of whack. We can’t be the policeman to the world and provide a safety net for all citizens if we don’t have the tax rates or the income to the government that supports all that. It seems like common sense, and it should be common sense. But something happens when you take…
Addison Wiggin: We Can’t Afford the Solutions Needed to Reverse Our Decline

"Everything is out of whack. We can’t be the policeman to the world and provide a safety net for all citizens if we don’t have the tax rates or the income to the government that supports all that. It seems like common sense, and it should be common sense. But something happens when you take…
Image | Simon Black: The Most Sound Opportunities Are Outside the Western World
Simon Black: The Most Sound Opportunities Are Outside the Western World

"In the long run, as decades of capital misallocations and inefficiencies in the global economy get shaken out, there’s going to be a redistribution of the wealth. And I think the wealth is going to go to where it’s treated best. And at the end of the day, that’s really what I’m looking for: the…
Simon Black: The Most Sound Opportunities Are Outside the Western World

"In the long run, as decades of capital misallocations and inefficiencies in the global economy get shaken out, there’s going to be a redistribution of the wealth. And I think the wealth is going to go to where it’s treated best. And at the end of the day, that’s really what I’m looking for: the…
Image | Axel Merk: Why Is Anyone Still Waiting to Sell the Dollar?
Axel Merk: Why Is Anyone Still Waiting to Sell the Dollar?

"The Fed can buy billions, even a trillion or so, but if and when the market is moving against the policymakers, then there is no stopping. The Fed cannot stem that tide. There is only so much that they can manage and so it is something that they have to watch very carefully. At the same time, they are not terribly concerned. If the bond market is falling, you do not know whether it is because of more economic growth or because of more inflation, and you really only know after the fact.

So for now people think “We have economic growth kicking in,” until the next economic numbers are not as great as expected, and so it is a bit like a "boiling-frog" syndrome. You print in all this money, you think everything is great, and you have some warning signs, but you think, “Things are moving along.” And by the time that you really see the damage you have created, it is quite late to undo this damage and it is going to be very, very expensive and painful."

So remarks Axel Merk, currency specialist and founder of the Merk Mutual Funds, who is perplexed by those waiting for additional warning signs to sell the dollar. In his view, we have all the evidence we need. He and Chris discuss the inner workings of the Fed and the course it is determinedly charting – and the looming dangers ahead for the US dollar.
Axel Merk: Why Is Anyone Still Waiting to Sell the Dollar?

"The Fed can buy billions, even a trillion or so, but if and when the market is moving against the policymakers, then there is no stopping. The Fed cannot stem that tide. There is only so much that they can manage and so it is something that they have to watch very carefully. At the same time, they are not terribly concerned. If the bond market is falling, you do not know whether it is because of more economic growth or because of more inflation, and you really only know after the fact.

So for now people think “We have economic growth kicking in,” until the next economic numbers are not as great as expected, and so it is a bit like a "boiling-frog" syndrome. You print in all this money, you think everything is great, and you have some warning signs, but you think, “Things are moving along.” And by the time that you really see the damage you have created, it is quite late to undo this damage and it is going to be very, very expensive and painful."

So remarks Axel Merk, currency specialist and founder of the Merk Mutual Funds, who is perplexed by those waiting for additional warning signs to sell the dollar. In his view, we have all the evidence we need. He and Chris discuss the inner workings of the Fed and the course it is determinedly charting – and the looming dangers ahead for the US dollar.
Image | Why You Should Get Busy Now
Why You Should Get Busy Now
 PREVIEW

I want to respond to a couple of member questions to the last report.  

Here are two flavors of the same question, written in response to “How This Will All Play Out,”  both wondering why I am advocating that people accelerate their plans, whatever they may be, to become more resilient.

Lemonyellowschwin wrote:

Chris wrote:

“If your plans include moving, selling a house, or making big improvements to your current house, I would strongly recommend putting those plans into high gear.”

Is this because of concerns about rapidly-rising interest rates (killing the ability to buy or sell real estate) and inflation increasing the cost of improvements?

nickbert wrote:

I myself am wondering the same thing. My family and I don’t own any real estate anymore (at least not in the US) and are not planning to buy anytime soon so that’s not an issue for us, but if there is another specific reason I would love to hear it.

As usual, there’s no easy answer to this, such as Because everything will stop working on June 12th, 2012 at 3:05 p.m.!! Nobody knows when the next difficulties will begin, obviously, or how serious they will be. Such is the nature of complex systems.

Given this, the best we can do is constantly weigh and then reweigh the various risks as circumstances change.

Why You Should Get Busy Now
 PREVIEW

I want to respond to a couple of member questions to the last report.  

Here are two flavors of the same question, written in response to “How This Will All Play Out,”  both wondering why I am advocating that people accelerate their plans, whatever they may be, to become more resilient.

Lemonyellowschwin wrote:

Chris wrote:

“If your plans include moving, selling a house, or making big improvements to your current house, I would strongly recommend putting those plans into high gear.”

Is this because of concerns about rapidly-rising interest rates (killing the ability to buy or sell real estate) and inflation increasing the cost of improvements?

nickbert wrote:

I myself am wondering the same thing. My family and I don’t own any real estate anymore (at least not in the US) and are not planning to buy anytime soon so that’s not an issue for us, but if there is another specific reason I would love to hear it.

As usual, there’s no easy answer to this, such as Because everything will stop working on June 12th, 2012 at 3:05 p.m.!! Nobody knows when the next difficulties will begin, obviously, or how serious they will be. Such is the nature of complex systems.

Given this, the best we can do is constantly weigh and then reweigh the various risks as circumstances change.

Image | How This Will Play Out
How This Will Play Out
 PREVIEW

How This Will Play Out

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Why downward pressure on the US dollar is building
  • What to expect when the Fed “ends” quantitative easing in June
  • The factors most likely to cause a major breakdown in the dollar
  • What you should do to protect against a dollar collapse
  • Why time is your most precious (and depleting) asset right now

Part I: The Breakdown Draws Near

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How This Will Play Out

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:

How This Will Play Out
 PREVIEW

How This Will Play Out

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Executive Summary

  • Why downward pressure on the US dollar is building
  • What to expect when the Fed “ends” quantitative easing in June
  • The factors most likely to cause a major breakdown in the dollar
  • What you should do to protect against a dollar collapse
  • Why time is your most precious (and depleting) asset right now

Part I: The Breakdown Draws Near

If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Part II: How This Will Play Out

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:

Image | The Breakdown Draws Near
The Breakdown Draws Near

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
The Breakdown Draws Near

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
Image | It Draws Near – Part II
It Draws Near – Part II
 PREVIEW

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:
It Draws Near – Part II
 PREVIEW

Meanwhile…

Inflation continues to climb in every market except the United States, which tells us that US inflation statistics are probably wrong. In a global economy where the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and given the fact that the dollar is down roughly 8% over the past year, it is practically impossible for inflation to be higher everywhere besides the US.

In Europe, the highest monthly gain in inflation in the record series was just recorded:
Image | It Draws Near
It Draws Near
 PREVIEW

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
It Draws Near
 PREVIEW

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption.

Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here’s why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near.
Image | Insolvent and Going Deeper
Insolvent and Going Deeper

The US budget process is entirely out of control. By extension, its fiscal future is rather bleak.

All one has to do is back up two steps, entirely ignoring the meaningless budget scuffles currently ongoing in DC, to see that the federal government’s fiscal situation is in complete shambles. In fact, as things currently stand in terms of spending and revenues, the US government is insolvent – its liabilities vastly exceed its assets on a net-present-value basis.

Yes, Obama has just laid out a plan that calls for cutting some $4 trillion of new, incremental deficit additions over the next 12 years, but this merely obscures the fact that the deficit will still grow by a rather hefty amount nonetheless. Plans from both sides of the aisle call for adding more debt but at a slower pace. True, that’s progress of a sort, but not the type of progress you want to bring home to meet your mother.

Insolvent and Going Deeper

The US budget process is entirely out of control. By extension, its fiscal future is rather bleak.

All one has to do is back up two steps, entirely ignoring the meaningless budget scuffles currently ongoing in DC, to see that the federal government’s fiscal situation is in complete shambles. In fact, as things currently stand in terms of spending and revenues, the US government is insolvent – its liabilities vastly exceed its assets on a net-present-value basis.

Yes, Obama has just laid out a plan that calls for cutting some $4 trillion of new, incremental deficit additions over the next 12 years, but this merely obscures the fact that the deficit will still grow by a rather hefty amount nonetheless. Plans from both sides of the aisle call for adding more debt but at a slower pace. True, that’s progress of a sort, but not the type of progress you want to bring home to meet your mother.

Image | Worse Than First Feared
Worse Than First Feared
 PREVIEW

The economic impact of the earthquake, tsunami, and ongoing Fukushima disaster on Japan’s economy, that is.

Of course, that’s not much of a surprise to readers here, but it will definitely be creeping out into the broader markets over time, and should be fully recognized in another two months or so.

The economic minister of Japan, not usually given to anything other than very measured statements, has come out with some rather bold pronouncements, including the idea that Japan may have difficulty financing all of the costs due to an already too-high level of debt.

Here’s the story:

Worse Than First Feared
 PREVIEW

The economic impact of the earthquake, tsunami, and ongoing Fukushima disaster on Japan’s economy, that is.

Of course, that’s not much of a surprise to readers here, but it will definitely be creeping out into the broader markets over time, and should be fully recognized in another two months or so.

The economic minister of Japan, not usually given to anything other than very measured statements, has come out with some rather bold pronouncements, including the idea that Japan may have difficulty financing all of the costs due to an already too-high level of debt.

Here’s the story:

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I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the needs and sustainability of our family. We have six young children, our oldest just turned 12 and our youngest just turned 3 months old. I love the considerations that the article had above and thought I would add a few things that I have considered for our situation. My...
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