Labor Force Shortfall; The Dunning-Kruger WEF There were a large number of economic reports this week, headed by Payrolls, which were released on Friday, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +261k, expected +200k; new high, positive. Personal Income: +0.70% month/month (m/m) (prior +0.40 m/m); new high, positive. Auto/Light Truck Sales: +9.17% m/m; positive and recovering from a sharp dip. […] Labor Force Shortfall; The Dunning-Kruger WEF There were a large number of economic reports this week, headed by Payrolls, which were released on Friday, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time: Nonfarm Payrolls: headline +261k, expected +200k; new high, positive. Personal Income: +0.70% month/month (m/m) (prior +0.40 m/m); new high, positive. Auto/Light Truck Sales: +9.17% m/m; positive and recovering from a sharp dip. […]
Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide […] Good News for Metals; A Mafia Operation The buck fell 0.91 [-0.85%] to 105.92 on the week; most of the damage happened on Monday and Tuesday. While the buck remains (barely) above the 200 MA, this week marks a new 4-month closing low. Is the dollar rally over? I’ll show you a monthly of the buck this week – it might provide […]
Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models […] Recession Indicators; General Winter Arrives There were three big economic reports this week: Retail Sales (RSXFS): +1.26% m/m Industrial Production (INDPRO): -0.11% m/m Producer Prices (PPIACO): -1.3% m/m Mostly, producer prices = energy, which is down from peak. Retail sales were strong, except for clothing which was flat. Industrial production was basically flat also. I have a pair of models […]
Dollar Crushed; Apology for America The buck was crushed this week, plunging -4.61% to 106.16, moving lower four days out of five. The bulk of the losses came after the Consumer Price Index release around 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, which showed a slightly lower rate (+0.44% m/m) than expected, and then on Friday, there were hints from the Chines […] Dollar Crushed; Apology for America The buck was crushed this week, plunging -4.61% to 106.16, moving lower four days out of five. The bulk of the losses came after the Consumer Price Index release around 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Thursday, which showed a slightly lower rate (+0.44% m/m) than expected, and then on Friday, there were hints from the Chines […]
Higher for Longer; Hints of Panic The Elite’s narrative is breaking on many fronts Higher for Longer; Hints of Panic The Elite’s narrative is breaking on many fronts
Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits. Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint […] Tech Issues; Fourth Turning Cycle Timing This week, it was the European Central Bank’s turn to raise rates, this time by 75 basis points to yield a massive 1.5% for deposits. Just kidding about the massive part. The ECB has a lot of rate-increasing to do to catch up with the Fed, but the currency moves this week seemed to hint […]
Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease The buck fell this week, dropping 1.22 [-1.08%] to 111.98. Most of the damage happened on Friday. The candle print was bearish, and the buck closed back below its 9 MA – although it remains above the 50, which is where it has spent most of its time during 2022. Buck remains in an uptrend, […] Back to the 1970s; Victory Disease The buck fell this week, dropping 1.22 [-1.08%] to 111.98. Most of the damage happened on Friday. The candle print was bearish, and the buck closed back below its 9 MA – although it remains above the 50, which is where it has spent most of its time during 2022. Buck remains in an uptrend, […]
Services Inflation; The Speed of Science This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From […] Services Inflation; The Speed of Science This week, it was hard to sort out the events that caused the various market moves. Here were the U.S. data releases this week: Retail Sales: headline unchanged, expected +0.2% [Fri] Consumer Price Index: headline +0.38% m/m, expected +0.2% [Thu] Producer Price Index (PPIACO): -0.29% m/m, “final demand” PPI +0.4% m/m, expected +0.2% [Wed] From […]
Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top […] Surprisingly Strong Payrolls; The Kids Are Not OK Payrolls looked “surprisingly strong” on Friday, with the headline number at +263,000, with +250,000 expected. That wasn’t a big difference, but markets sold off hard immediately following this release – except for oil and gasoline, which had great days, apparently unaffected by payrolls one way or the other. Wolf Richter, who is usually on top […]
65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity, […] 65 Billion Pound Solvency Problem and The Hybrid War Explained The big market-moving news this week – as you probably know by now – was the solvency problem in the leveraged UK pension funds. (Leveraged? Pension funds???) The UK pension funds were holding UK sovereign debt, the price of which has been plunging (due to rising rates), which wouldn’t normally matter (just hold until maturity, […]
by blaggers