A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on… A Huge Dollar Rally, and A Tipping Point The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday; looking forward, Powell is hawkish, and talks about maintaining a “restrictive policy for some time.” For those who want to get it from the horses mouth, and have a lot of time to kill, you can listen here (Source – FOMC/YouTube). Wolf Richter’s take on…
FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra? The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was… FedEx Projects Global Recession; Spike-Induced Pellagra? The Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday (expected: -0.1% m/m, actual: +0.12% m/m) had the strongest impact on prices this week; equities sold off hard (more than 2% in five minutes). The S&P 500 Index (SPX) eventually closed the day at the dead lows, which is never a good sign, since it means “there was…
ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%. Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going… ECB Raises Rates; The Golden Ruble The market-moving event this week: the European Central Bank decided to raise rates by 75 bp, so now deposits are yielding (are you ready?): a grand total of 0.75%. Back up the truck! Note: the ECB previously had negative rates from 2016-2022. Wolf has the charts: ECB Shocked, Shocked, to Find that Inflation is Going…
Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell Payrolls came in reasonably strong on Friday; the headline number was +315,000, with the labor force growing by 786,000, a fairly brisk increase, marking a new high for the labor force. That means a lot more people started actually looking for work. (Series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – CLF16OV, civilian labor force 16 years… Be Careful Out There; Technocracy in a Nutshell Payrolls came in reasonably strong on Friday; the headline number was +315,000, with the labor force growing by 786,000, a fairly brisk increase, marking a new high for the labor force. That means a lot more people started actually looking for work. (Series: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – CLF16OV, civilian labor force 16 years…
Cold Water from Jackson Hole; Drought Meet Hydropower! Every summer, the Fed throws a big party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed chairman typically gives a speech about the money matters of current interest, and anyone who is anyone in the markets-and-finance biz gets invited (Source). “The Kansas City Fed will host its 45th annual conference starting today at the Jackson Lake Lodge… Cold Water from Jackson Hole; Drought Meet Hydropower! Every summer, the Fed throws a big party at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed chairman typically gives a speech about the money matters of current interest, and anyone who is anyone in the markets-and-finance biz gets invited (Source). “The Kansas City Fed will host its 45th annual conference starting today at the Jackson Lake Lodge…
No Pivot For You; Build Back Better Revealed The market-moving news this week had to do with the prospects for another Fed rate increase. The information was delivered to the great unwashed via the “Fed Minutes Release” on Wednesday, where it sure sounded like more rate increases were already baked into the Fed’s cake: Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases… No Pivot For You; Build Back Better Revealed The market-moving news this week had to do with the prospects for another Fed rate increase. The information was delivered to the great unwashed via the “Fed Minutes Release” on Wednesday, where it sure sounded like more rate increases were already baked into the Fed’s cake: Fed sees interest rate hikes continuing until inflation eases…
Whither Inflation, and The Monkeypox Gambit The big market/economic news this week was the Consumer Price Index. If you were pro-Grandpa, you focused on the month over month figure of 0%, which Grandpa himself gloated about; if you were anti-Grandpa, you focused on year over year, which was 8.48%. Below, find the y/y chart: it shows the worst inflation since the… Whither Inflation, and The Monkeypox Gambit The big market/economic news this week was the Consumer Price Index. If you were pro-Grandpa, you focused on the month over month figure of 0%, which Grandpa himself gloated about; if you were anti-Grandpa, you focused on year over year, which was 8.48%. Below, find the y/y chart: it shows the worst inflation since the…
Payrolls, Gold Deliveries, Beginning of the Beginning Payrolls were surprisingly strong on Friday; headline +528k, with about 250k expected. Of course, this bit of economic good news caused equities to sell off, along with gold, silver, and the 10-year bond. The initial sell-off was all about disappointment surrounding the much-hoped for “Fed Pivot” – theory being, the weaker the economy appears, the… Payrolls, Gold Deliveries, Beginning of the Beginning Payrolls were surprisingly strong on Friday; headline +528k, with about 250k expected. Of course, this bit of economic good news caused equities to sell off, along with gold, silver, and the 10-year bond. The initial sell-off was all about disappointment surrounding the much-hoped for “Fed Pivot” – theory being, the weaker the economy appears, the…
Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero Two things happened in the markets this week: The Fed Pivot What’s a Recession Anyway? First, the Pivot. Which hasn’t happened, insofar as I can see, but the markets appear to believe that the Fed has “pivoted” – setting up to raise rates less enthusiastically than previously thought. Listening to the Federal Open Market Committee… Pivots, Recessions, and Covid-Zero Two things happened in the markets this week: The Fed Pivot What’s a Recession Anyway? First, the Pivot. Which hasn’t happened, insofar as I can see, but the markets appear to believe that the Fed has “pivoted” – setting up to raise rates less enthusiastically than previously thought. Listening to the Federal Open Market Committee…
Fed Meeting This Week We have a Fed meeting Wednesday; this week, there was no material change in rate increase projection from the futures markets: a roughly 81% chance of a 75 basis point rate increase, with more rate increases projected to come after that. (Source) The European Central Bank actually did raise rates 50 bp this week, for… Fed Meeting This Week We have a Fed meeting Wednesday; this week, there was no material change in rate increase projection from the futures markets: a roughly 81% chance of a 75 basis point rate increase, with more rate increases projected to come after that. (Source) The European Central Bank actually did raise rates 50 bp this week, for…
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