banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism PREVIEW Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior… banksters seem short-silver hesitant; vaccine is the mechanism PREVIEW Five economic reports this week: Industrial Production: -0.02% m/m [prior +0.4% m/m]; topping out, recessionary Personal Income: +0.32% m/m [prior +0.55% m/m]; steady uptrend, increasingly inflationary Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.57% m/m [prior +18.7% m/m]; medium-term expansionary GDP: +1.61% q/q [prior +1.88% q/q]; adjusted for (CPI) inflation: slowing-to-recessionary. Fed Balance Sheet: -0.32% m/m (-87 billion) [prior…
Fed Bank Loss Coverup; Still Early Innings PREVIEW Two economic reports and Fed Activity: Durable Goods: New Orders -1.0% m/m [prior -5.0% m/m]; topping process (month #2) Median New Home Sales: Price +2.7% m/m [prior -9.2% m/m]; slight rebound in a sharp downturn (month #5) Fed Rate Increase: +25 bp Fed Balance Sheet: +94b [+1.1% m/m, prior +3.6% m/m], to 8.73 Trillion. In… Fed Bank Loss Coverup; Still Early Innings PREVIEW Two economic reports and Fed Activity: Durable Goods: New Orders -1.0% m/m [prior -5.0% m/m]; topping process (month #2) Median New Home Sales: Price +2.7% m/m [prior -9.2% m/m]; slight rebound in a sharp downturn (month #5) Fed Rate Increase: +25 bp Fed Balance Sheet: +94b [+1.1% m/m, prior +3.6% m/m], to 8.73 Trillion. In…
Short Rates Plunge, Fourth Turning, Meet the Djinn PREVIEW Economic Reports: Retail Sales: -0.4% m/m [prior +3.1% m/m], contraction. Industrial Production: +0.0% m/m [prior +0.27% m/m], contraction CPI-Urban: +0.37% m/m [prior +0.51% m/m], inflation Producer Prices (Input): -0.47% m/m [prior +0.71% m/m], deflation. In addition, Fed balance sheet climbed this week by $297 billion [+3.44% w/w]. “Money printing” is back. Except: Wolf provides some… Short Rates Plunge, Fourth Turning, Meet the Djinn PREVIEW Economic Reports: Retail Sales: -0.4% m/m [prior +3.1% m/m], contraction. Industrial Production: +0.0% m/m [prior +0.27% m/m], contraction CPI-Urban: +0.37% m/m [prior +0.51% m/m], inflation Producer Prices (Input): -0.47% m/m [prior +0.71% m/m], deflation. In addition, Fed balance sheet climbed this week by $297 billion [+3.44% w/w]. “Money printing” is back. Except: Wolf provides some…
Banksters, bonds, and failure; the next pandemic dead ahead PREVIEW I’m going to leave “economic reports” for later – why bury the lead (lede)? Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) collapsed on Friday. Excuse me, what I meant to say was: US regulators have shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and taken control of its customer deposits in the largest failure of a US bank since 2008… Banksters, bonds, and failure; the next pandemic dead ahead PREVIEW I’m going to leave “economic reports” for later – why bury the lead (lede)? Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) collapsed on Friday. Excuse me, what I meant to say was: US regulators have shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and taken control of its customer deposits in the largest failure of a US bank since 2008…
heavy trucks, silver, and endorphins PREVIEW Four economic reports this week: Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.2% m/m, heavy truck sales: -11.9% m/m. Durable Goods: new orders -4.5 m/m, prior +5.1% m/m, shipments -0.1% m/m. ISM Services Index: 55.1 (flat = 50.0). PMI Manufacturing Index: 47.3 (flat = 50.0). So ISM Services remains hot, there’s a contraction in manufacturing, durable goods could be… heavy trucks, silver, and endorphins PREVIEW Four economic reports this week: Auto/Light Truck Sales: -6.2% m/m, heavy truck sales: -11.9% m/m. Durable Goods: new orders -4.5 m/m, prior +5.1% m/m, shipments -0.1% m/m. ISM Services Index: 55.1 (flat = 50.0). PMI Manufacturing Index: 47.3 (flat = 50.0). So ISM Services remains hot, there’s a contraction in manufacturing, durable goods could be…
Rates & the buck move higher; guidance from the unvaxxed PREVIEW There were three primary economic releases this week: New Home Sales Price: -38k [-8.91%] m/m, Home Supply 7.9 [-0.8 m/m]. Bearish. Personal Income: +0.6% m/m [prior 0.3%, expected 1.0%], PCE +1.8% m/m, expected +1.2%. PMI Flash: Manufacturing +47.8, Services +50.5. Better than expected (rating of 50 = flat). Home prices appear to have peaked, and… Rates & the buck move higher; guidance from the unvaxxed PREVIEW There were three primary economic releases this week: New Home Sales Price: -38k [-8.91%] m/m, Home Supply 7.9 [-0.8 m/m]. Bearish. Personal Income: +0.6% m/m [prior 0.3%, expected 1.0%], PCE +1.8% m/m, expected +1.2%. PMI Flash: Manufacturing +47.8, Services +50.5. Better than expected (rating of 50 = flat). Home prices appear to have peaked, and…
more mixed economic signals; woke cultural revolutions, and a better way PREVIEW There were four main economic reports out this week: CPI (CPIAUCSL) +0.5% m/m [expected +0.4%], prior -0.1% m/m. Inflationary. Retail Sales (RSAFS) +3.0% m/m [expected +1.7%], prior -1.1% m/m. Expansionary. Industrial Production (INDPRO) +0.0% m/m [expected +0.5%], prior -1.0% m/m. Mildly recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO) -1.96% m/m, prior -0.7% m/m. Deflationary. It was a mixed bag. … more mixed economic signals; woke cultural revolutions, and a better way PREVIEW There were four main economic reports out this week: CPI (CPIAUCSL) +0.5% m/m [expected +0.4%], prior -0.1% m/m. Inflationary. Retail Sales (RSAFS) +3.0% m/m [expected +1.7%], prior -1.1% m/m. Expansionary. Industrial Production (INDPRO) +0.0% m/m [expected +0.5%], prior -1.0% m/m. Mildly recessionary. Producer Prices (PPIACO) -1.96% m/m, prior -0.7% m/m. Deflationary. It was a mixed bag. …
Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress PREVIEW The buck rose 0.78 [+0.76%] to 103.53 this week, managing to close above the 50 moving average (MA) on Friday for the first time since the big decline began back in November 2022. My weekly DX (dollar) model isn’t quite in bullish mode just yet, but as you can see, this is the first two-week… Rates Higher-for-Longer; Vax U-Turn in Progress PREVIEW The buck rose 0.78 [+0.76%] to 103.53 this week, managing to close above the 50 moving average (MA) on Friday for the first time since the big decline began back in November 2022. My weekly DX (dollar) model isn’t quite in bullish mode just yet, but as you can see, this is the first two-week…
Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works PREVIEW We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on… Fed Raises Rates +25 bp; The Safety System Works PREVIEW We had a market two-fer this week: first, Powell Press Conference Wednesday, followed two days later by Payrolls Friday. First, Powell Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by the expected 25 basis points (bp) (+0.25%). I reduce an hour of press conference down to five bullet points: We need substantially more evidence that inflation is on…
A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming PREVIEW We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33% m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over… A Gold Divergence; Post Vaccine-War Impact Incoming PREVIEW We had four economic reports this week: Personal Income (PI): +0.22% month over month (m/m) [+0.26% month over m/m prior]; Slowing, negative. Durable goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +5.33% m/m, Shipments +0.50% m/m. Positive. Median New Home Sales Prices (MSPNHSUS): -16.9k m/m, New Home Supply: -0.2 [to 9 months]. Negative (for housing). GDP: +1.56% quarter over…
by blaggers 
