+ 10-year Treasury (DGS10): -4 bp to 4.26%. Neutral.
+ 30 Year Mortage Rates (MORTGAGE30US): +13 bp to 6.90%. Contractionary.
+ Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): 7.581T -52B (-0.68%) w/w. Contractionary.
+ Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +50B (+0.28%) w/w. Expansionary.
+ Strategic Petroleum Reserve (WCSTUS): +748k (+0.2%) w/w. Slight refill.
The buck turned slightly into confetti this week, falling 0.32 (-0.31%) to 103.86. In spite of the drop, the buck is still in an uptrend – although the buck may be running into overhead resistance around 104. The Fed meeting minutes (released Wednesday) hinted at maybe a slowdown in QT, but they want to keep QT in place, even if rate cuts start to appear. Maybe a top for the buck? Not sure. Maybe. WolfStreet:
The Fed Wants to Drive QT as Far as Possible Without Blowing Stuff Up, and it’s Working on a Plan: FOMC Minutes (source – wolfstreet);
The 10-year treasury fell 4 bp to 4.26% – just a minor move. The 10-year yield remains in an uptrend – although it might have run into resistance at that 20 MA. Is the 10-year yield running out of gas? Maybe. The Fed can either protect the dollar, or the banksters – who have been put at risk due to all those “unrealized losses” which came directly from rising long rates. Prices are hinting at the Fed protecting the banksters right now, but so far, it’s just a hint. The CME Fedwatch Tool is projecting a 96% chance of no rate cut, and a 4% chance of a 25 bp cut at the March 20 meeting.
Gold rose 25.30 (+1.25%) to 2049.40. Gold’s weekly swing low candle print looked bullish to me. Currency did play a role (EUR/USD moved up 0.40%) but mostly this seemed to be a gold rally – especially on Friday. Looks like there is decent (buy-side) support at round number 2000. On Friday, it felt to me that “someone” was buying gold going into the weekend. Not sure what that means, but it is probably gold-positive.
In contrast, silver fell 0.49 (-2.10%), and this happened even with a +0.20 rally on Friday. It was not a great week for silver, which appears to have run into overhead resistance at the 200 MA.