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by Chris Martenson

Okay, this is really just desperate and sad. No I am not referring to my fixation on parsing government numbers, although I suppose I could be, but instead to government statistical wizardry and the press’ unquestioning rhetorical support for these tortured numbers.

First up, here’s the verbiage:

Durable goods jump 3.4

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods unexpectedly rebounded in February, rising for the first time in seven months, according to a government report on Wednesday that could bring some cheer to an economy mired in recession.

Here’s the NY Times’ opening take on the situation:

In a glimmer of surprisingly upbeat economic data, manufacturing orders for goods like metals, machines and military equipment rose last month for the first time after six months of declines, the government reported on Wednesday.

That’s quite amazing. Durables “unexpectedly rebounded,” bringing the cheer of “a glimmer of surprisingly upbeat economic data” to an economy mired in recession.

Well, it turns out that there’s another little game that is frequently played with these numbers and it’s called “the downward revision.” The game is played like this: In a prior month, in this case January, a slightly “better than expected number” is posted, causing the stock market to react with glee (at least temporarily).

More Fuzzy Numbers – Durables
by Chris Martenson

Okay, this is really just desperate and sad. No I am not referring to my fixation on parsing government numbers, although I suppose I could be, but instead to government statistical wizardry and the press’ unquestioning rhetorical support for these tortured numbers.

First up, here’s the verbiage:

Durable goods jump 3.4

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — New orders for long-lasting manufactured goods unexpectedly rebounded in February, rising for the first time in seven months, according to a government report on Wednesday that could bring some cheer to an economy mired in recession.

Here’s the NY Times’ opening take on the situation:

In a glimmer of surprisingly upbeat economic data, manufacturing orders for goods like metals, machines and military equipment rose last month for the first time after six months of declines, the government reported on Wednesday.

That’s quite amazing. Durables “unexpectedly rebounded,” bringing the cheer of “a glimmer of surprisingly upbeat economic data” to an economy mired in recession.

Well, it turns out that there’s another little game that is frequently played with these numbers and it’s called “the downward revision.” The game is played like this: In a prior month, in this case January, a slightly “better than expected number” is posted, causing the stock market to react with glee (at least temporarily).

by Chris Martenson

I want to talk about the renewed tendency of the press to reiterate the pronouncements of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) apparantly without consideration for how badly they were bamboozled by the NAR from 2003 to 2008.

Check out this opening paragraph announcing the latest “great news” on existing home sales (emphasis mine):

U.S. Home Resales Unexpectedly Increased in February

March 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly climbed in February as record foreclosures brought bargain hunters into the market to take advantage of lower prices.

I am not clear on this “unexpectedly” part. Home sales always rise in February compared to January. That’s just part of the seasonal dynamic of home sales.

Fuzzy Reporting – Press Helps to Distort Housing Data
by Chris Martenson

I want to talk about the renewed tendency of the press to reiterate the pronouncements of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) apparantly without consideration for how badly they were bamboozled by the NAR from 2003 to 2008.

Check out this opening paragraph announcing the latest “great news” on existing home sales (emphasis mine):

U.S. Home Resales Unexpectedly Increased in February

March 23 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly climbed in February as record foreclosures brought bargain hunters into the market to take advantage of lower prices.

I am not clear on this “unexpectedly” part. Home sales always rise in February compared to January. That’s just part of the seasonal dynamic of home sales.

by Chris Martenson

This report for subscribers goes hand-in-hand with the Rolling Stone article linked and discussed below. Together, they point out the urgency of our current situation and that the continuation of the status quo behaviors of protecting the banking profits of well-connected insiders and continuing to be less than forthright with ourselves (Fuzzy Numbers) are rapidly diminishing the prospects for a gentle and favorable outcome.

Here’s the opening:

Executive Summary

  • US federal deficits reported to be $9.3 trillion over the next decade
  • Fuzzy Accounting means these deficits are actually vastly under reported
  • Actual deficits closer to $6 trillion per year, or $60 trillion over the next decade
  • Deficits defined and explained
  • Risk of a dollar collapse only increasing
  • You need to step up your personal efforts at mitigating the potential impacts of a US currency crisis

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the fiscal deficits of the federal government are going to be a lot larger than previously estimated. This news was taken in stride by the financial markets, especially the FOREX markets where the dollar is traded, but it will only be a matter of time before these massive deficits are recognized for what they are – signs of terminal illness for the financial prospects of the US, and, by extension, the dollar itself.

It is vital that you understand the true extent of the illness, and the ways in which we systematically sugar-coat and under report the true magnitude of the situation by the use of Fuzzy Numbers – in this case, more accurately described as Fuzzy Accounting.

In this report I will explain how to interpret the reported deficit, demonstrate the actual size of the true deficit, and then make the case that you should seriously consider stepping up your personal efforts at preparing for an uncertain future.

New Martenson Report Ready – Tackling the Deficit
by Chris Martenson

This report for subscribers goes hand-in-hand with the Rolling Stone article linked and discussed below. Together, they point out the urgency of our current situation and that the continuation of the status quo behaviors of protecting the banking profits of well-connected insiders and continuing to be less than forthright with ourselves (Fuzzy Numbers) are rapidly diminishing the prospects for a gentle and favorable outcome.

Here’s the opening:

Executive Summary

  • US federal deficits reported to be $9.3 trillion over the next decade
  • Fuzzy Accounting means these deficits are actually vastly under reported
  • Actual deficits closer to $6 trillion per year, or $60 trillion over the next decade
  • Deficits defined and explained
  • Risk of a dollar collapse only increasing
  • You need to step up your personal efforts at mitigating the potential impacts of a US currency crisis

The Congressional Budget Office just announced that the fiscal deficits of the federal government are going to be a lot larger than previously estimated. This news was taken in stride by the financial markets, especially the FOREX markets where the dollar is traded, but it will only be a matter of time before these massive deficits are recognized for what they are – signs of terminal illness for the financial prospects of the US, and, by extension, the dollar itself.

It is vital that you understand the true extent of the illness, and the ways in which we systematically sugar-coat and under report the true magnitude of the situation by the use of Fuzzy Numbers – in this case, more accurately described as Fuzzy Accounting.

In this report I will explain how to interpret the reported deficit, demonstrate the actual size of the true deficit, and then make the case that you should seriously consider stepping up your personal efforts at preparing for an uncertain future.

by Chris Martenson
Time to Prepare – Massive Federal Deficits Announced
PREVIEW by Chris Martenson
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