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Fuzzy Numbers – Retail Sales

The User's Profile Chris Martenson February 12, 2010
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Today the Commerce Department reported excellent economic news for January; retail sales climbed another 0.5%, the third gain in four months, and were up a hefty 4.7%, compared to a year ago.

U.S. Economy: Retail Sales Climb

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — January sales at U.S. retailers climbed more than anticipated, while consumer confidence unexpectedly fell this month from a two-year high, showing a recovery in household spending may be gradual.

Retail purchases increased 0.5 percent, the third gain in the past four months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to 73.7 from 74.4 the prior month.

Compared to January last year, sales were up 4.7 percent.

Unfortunately, somebody forgot to tell the states this excellent news, because their sales tax data for January is still miserable.

When I searched for January sales tax data, these were the first links I came across:

Colorado Sales taxes fell 8.9 percent year over year in January

VT Sales & Use Tax up 0.18% Yr/Yr

Indiana Tax Receipts Fall In January

Georgia Sales Tax Receipts Fall 5.5% yr/yr in January

Texas Sales Tax Revenues Fall 14% yr/yr in January

Tennessee: “January is the 20th consecutive month in which sales taxes have recorded negative growth.”

There was only one bright spot that I found when trolling for data, and that was from California, which reported this:

California YTD Sales tax receipts up 9.4%

What needs to be explained here is that California’s fiscal year runs from July 1 to July 1, so there’s seven months of data here in the YTD figure.  The other thing to note is that on April 1, 2009, CA hiked its sales tax rate by 14% (from 7.25% to 8.25%).  Here we might note that a 9.4% gain in revenue in the face of a 14% hike in the tax rate is consistent with a lower total volume of sales, not higher.

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Top Comment

Over at ZeroHedge, in relation to the consumer spending report, the excellent point was made that the Gallup poll is another source of pretty good...
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