Mish Shedlock

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris referee:

• Bernanke vs. Gold
  
  • How accurate is the Fed Chairman’s criticism of the gold standard?
• Perception vs. Reality
  • Why does the economy feel so bad when the stock market feels so good?
• You vs. the Herd
  
  • Why now is the time for having the courage of your convictions.

There are a lot of mixed messages swirling around of late. Sound money advocates champion precious metals, while our Fed Chairman derides the gold standard as an anachronistic failed experiment. A steady drumbeat of discouraging data shows that the global economy still faces serious risk, but the stock market suggests times could hardly be better. It’s times like these when a steady hand on the tiller can make all the difference.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris investigate:

• Risk “On”
  
  • Painful days for those holding precious metals, bonds or the yen
• US Treasurys
  • Are we seeing a game change of historic proportion?
• Not all numbers are trustworthy
  
  • The recently-released bank stress test results insult our intelligence

From now on, you’re going to hear a lot more about the US Treasury market. Rates are beginning to creep up, which for a global economy hooked on free debt is like sunrise to a vampire. The Treasury market is monstrous, and when it rolls over, it will take nearly every asset class down with it. Suffice it to say, we’re watching it very closely.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris address:

• Holding the Bag in Europe
  
  • At this point, it would take a miracle to save taxpayers from getting stuck with the bill for this mess
• Got Gold?
  • All of a sudden Europe’s leaders are demanding their gold. Think it’s still a “barbarous relic?”
• Sliding back into Recession
  
  • The data on the worldwide economy looks bad and is getting uglier

The quick takeaways from this week’s podcast? Pay no more attention to what Europe’s leaders say — instead, watch what they do. Prepare for a Greek (and Spanish and Portuguese and …) default, and keep your precious metals close.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish and Chris tackle:

• US GDP
  
  • With only a little inspection, the reasons for optimism behind the latest rosy US GDP numbers wither quickly
• Europe
  
  • The flood of free money continues. Too bad it’s going into the banks vs. the European economies that need it
• Threats from the East
  
  • While all eyes are looking towards Europe, larger risks to the global economy are appearing in Japan and China

This week’s podcast was recorded on the road (with apologies for not having the usual crystal clarity). But that didn’t slow Mish and Chris down in identifying the growing risks behind the otherwise positive announcements released this week. More than ever, keep an eye to the data — not the cheerleading — as it is proving critical in making decisions to preserve one’s wealth.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Mish has the week off but Chris digs into:

• Greece
  • A Depression is here – the question is how protracted will they make it?
• The US (and what it can learn from Greece)
  
  • The markets are showing in no uncertain terms what happens when a nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio gets out of control
• What It All Means
  
  • Tolerance for profligacy is running out. Some important players are beginning to walk away from US debt

With Mish on the road, Chris goes solo this week and delivers a hard message for the US: there are limits to the printing press.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish zero in on:

• Fuzzy Math
  • Why are we hearing a steady drumbeat of upbeat economic news, when looking beneath the surface into the hard data shows exactly the opposite?
• Malincentives
  
  • The US is embracing policies that favor corporations over individuals and encourages them to send their jobs and cash overseas. How did we get here?
• Greek drama
  
  • The increasingly farcical steps being taken to avoid calling this obvious default for what it is are turning the Greece rescue efforts into Kabuki theatre

Chris and Mish take out their calculators this week and try to make sense of increasingly nonsensical behavior by our governments. Warning: Regardless whether or not you’re a math person, this week’s podcast is sure to raise your blood pressure. So take an aspirin before listening.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

• B1
• B2
• B3

Click the play button below to listen to this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris (runtime 18m:35s):  

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish debate:

• Rewarding Moral Hazard
  • The President’s announced Mortgage Relief Plan has little help for underwater homeowners, lots for the banks, and none for those who where prudent
• Europe
  
  • France is weakening
• 0% Interest Rates
  
  • We are bumping up against the limit of what additional liquidity can do. And it will almost undoubtedly result in a currency crisis.

Are you one of the responsible ones who didn’t overextend yourself economically during the boom, only to watch the risk-takers rewarded with bailouts? If so, there’s lots to be irritated by this week.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish set their sights on:

• The Fed
  • 0% interest rates through 2014 (at least!). There’s not even a pretense left now about whom its policies are really directed at helping.
• Europe
  
  • In the words of Shakespeare, the latest proposals are simply “sound and fury, signifying nothing.” At this point, a deep and prolonged recession is a certainty.
• Japan
  
  • Decades of can-kicking are coming to their limit. 2012 could well be the year Japan topples into crisis.

In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish get things back in gear to talk about:

• Europe
  • Just went from ‘worse’ to ‘worser.’ To the tune of one trillion euros.
• Derivative Risk
  
  • Why we should be extremely concerned by the $100+ trillion in outstanding derivative contracts
• Market Exuberance
  
  • How can markets justify powering higher given such dire risks to the global economy?

It’s a new year, but Europe’s problems haven’t changed. In fact, they’re getting larger and more urgent. Greece is already in default, though no one is willing to call it that yet, and Portugal is almost certainly next. And while this should be of extreme concern to our European readers, it has a very good potential to trigger a cascading failure that could cause global markets to seize. So everyone has a stake in how this unfolds.