- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) -15.5B (-0.20% w/w);
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve (WCSSTUS1) +629k (+0.18% w/w); refill.
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +29.4B (+0.17% w/w)
- 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US): 6.67% (-28 bp w/w); down from recent high of 7.79%.
- 10 Year Treasury (DGS10): 3.90% (-1 bp w/w).
- Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER): +15.1B (+5.39% m/m); close to new high.
- Personal Income (PI): +0.35% m/m;
- Median New Home Sale Price (MSPNHSUS): 434k, +19.8k (+4.55% m/m); down from all-time high of 497k.
- Existing Home Sales (EXHOSLUSM495S): 3.79M, -160k m/m (-4.05% m/m), new 7-year low.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP); 27.6T +547B (+2.02% q/q); new high. Not adjusted for inflation.
Mortgage rates continue to fall from the recent October high of 7.79%. Median new home prices increased, but overall the property market is not doing well. Maybe that’s because a monthly payment in 2020 (at a 30-year rate of 3%) for a 434k house = $1,829, but at 6.67% now, the same house = $2,791. You Will Own Nothing, little people. At least Blackrock can hoover up all the spare houses and rent them to you. Assuming your social credit score is good, you aren’t flying anywhere, you are up-to-date on all your vaxes (and each of your children’s 72-vaxes), you wave all the right flags on your Twitter account, you aren’t a red-hat-wearing DVE, and you don’t engage in “hate speech.” Can’t be doing any of that “hate speech”, little person, or No Home For You!
The buck confettied some more this week, falling 0.85 (-0.83%) to 101.34, making another new low. The buck remains in a relatively strong downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The Euro confirmed this move by rallying +1.02% to 1.10. Money fled from the US, to Europe. Or maybe it just returned to where it originated?
RMB, on the other hand, did not confirm the dollar-confetti move. Instead, RMB rose 0.0137 (+0.19%) to 7.13, which is bad if you hold RMB. The “hammer” candle was bullish – reasonably highly rated – maybe marking a low. The trend model is not yet convinced, however. What’s that rebound candle about?
China’s big lenders further cut deposit interest rates (source – china.org); “The country’s “big four” commercial banks — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Construction Bank — have released their plans for the interest rate cut, lowering the rate for one-year fixed-term deposits by 0.1 percentage points, the two-year rates by 0.2 percentage points and the three-year and five-year rates both by 0.25 percentage points.”
Rate cuts in China means some Big Mainland Money will look elsewhere for yield.
by thc0655