Executive Summary

• The 4 most likely scenarios of Russian response
• Europe is more vulnerable, and will feel more pain sooner than the US (though the US is still at risk)
• The risk to the world economy and financial markets
• What you should be doing now, in case things worsen

If you have not yet read Part I: The West's Reckless Rush Towards War with Russia available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

Europe Will Pay the Price First

Europe is already on the edge of slipping back into outright economic contraction and can ill afford any sort of protracted sanction warfare with Russia, a major trading partner in both directions.

While the sanctions levied by Europe were very carefully crafted to cause the least amount of pain for itself as a first order of business, while imposing maximum pressure on Russia second, they will still bite.

‘EU sanctions on Russia will hit UK economy’ – Foreign Secretary

Jul 30, 2014

EU sanctions aimed at ‘imposing economic pain’ on Russia following the MH17 crash will hit the UK economy, Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has warned, saying ‘you can't make an omelette without breaking eggs’.

Hammond said the measures had been “designed to maximize the impact on Russia and minimize the impact on EU economies.”

“It will affect our economy… but you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs, and if we want to impose economic pain on Russia in order to try to encourage it to behave properly in eastern Ukraine and to give access to the crash site, then we have to be prepared to take these measures,” he told Sky.

On Wednesday, The Russian Foreign Ministry criticized the new package of EU sanctions, saying it was disappointed Europe was unable to act independently from Washington in the International arena. 

“We feel ashamed for the European Union who, after long searching for a unified voice is now speaking with Washington’s voice, having practically abandoned basic European values, including the presumption of innocence,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

(Source)

Indeed, it's easy to imagine how disappointed Russia might be to have so many unresolved questions about MH-17 lingering yet having Europe rush forward with punishment despite a long and warming history of economic ties.

Of course, the main consideration for Europe now that autumn is just a couple of months away is: Will