Consumer Economy
Auto/Light Truck Sales (ALTSALES); +3.24% m/m, (prior -3.91% m/m)
Producer Prices (PPIACO); -1.16% m/m, +1.06% y/y
CPI All Urban (CPIAUCSL); +0.18% m/m, +1.93% y/y
Auto/light truck sales have been (mostly) chopping sideways for the past year or so; this month’s increase didn’t cause any sort of breakout from this range. Auto sales are down maybe 10% from the highs set during the Orange Hitler years.
PPI is slowly moving lower – that’s disinflationary – it (mostly) tracks energy prices.
The deliberately understated CPI says “inflation is under control”: +0.18% m/m (2.16% annualized). How are your auto insurance or sickcare costs? Wolf:
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation: “Core CPI” Accelerates for 3rd Month on Sharp Flip of Used Vehicle Prices, Sticky Services Inflation. Gasoline Plunged [Oct 10] (source – Wolf Street)
Cherry-picked: motor vehicle insurance: +1.2% m/m, +16.3% y/y, motor vehicle repair: +1.2% m/m, +4.9% y/y. Medical Care: +4.6% m/m, +3.6% y/y.
Why would “they” understate inflation?
Social Security Recipients to Get 2.5 Percent Cost-of-Living Boost in 2025 [Oct 11] (source – Epoch Times)
CPIAUCSL (y/y): +1.93%
2022 COLA: +5.9%
2023 COLA: +8.7%
2024 COLA: +3.2%
Reminder: ShadowStats says actual (Jimmy Carter-measured) inflation is understated by (estimated) 7%, per year. Orange Hitler inflation (allegedly 2-3%) was actually 9-10%.
You Will Eat Ze Bugz in retirement. Assuming you survive all 11 shots, of course. What’s the US lifespan again? Lowest in the Western world, with costs double everyone else’s.
If only we could Make America Healthy Again, we would live longer and healthier lives, but “social security” would definitely have more problems.
“You are the (social security) carbon they want to reduce.”
Credit & Rates
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL); 7.07T, -33.1B (-0.47% w/w);
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR); 17.89T +20.7B (+0.12% w/w);
30-Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US); 6.32% +20 bp
10-Year Treasury (DGS10); 4.08% +10 bp
No QT this week, and bank credit continued expanding (annualized: +6.24%). No deflation.
Longer-dated treasury bond yields moved higher again this week; it was a 7-12 basis point move.