Consumer Economy
- Consumer Price Index (DELAYED)
- Retail Sales (DELAYED)
- Producer Price Index (DELAYED)
So the narrative is that democrats destroyed the data…which would imply the data was great! Obviously if it was bad they wouldn’t destroy it because it would hurt Trump. [17s]
White House: “The Democrats may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released.”
(source – dowdedward)
Credit & Rates
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) 6.58T +7.7B (+0.12% w/w)
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR) 18.83T +22.8B (+0.12% w/w)
- 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US) 6.24% +2 bp
- 3 Month Treasury (DGS3MO) 3.88% -4 bp
- 1 Year Treasury (DGS1) 3.70% +7 bp
- 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) 4.14% +3 bp
Bank credit expanded this week enough to eliminate last week’s contraction. So, over 2 weeks, bank credit is flat. That’s a semi-disaster-deflationary – at least over a two-week period.
The rate map shows that money moved out of bonds – especially the 6M-5Y range. This seems to be projecting inflation in the medium term.
CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 44% chance of one cut on the Dec 10th meeting – that is a 23% decline from the 67% chance assigned last week. We have another 4 weeks to go until the meeting. This week, we saw hints of “liquidity” issues (hey banksters – you can/should use this facility!), while ramping up “No Cuts For You”. What exactly are “liquidity needs” anyway? I thought we were in a Golden Age.
New York Fed’s Perli encourages use of Standing Repo Facility to deal with liquidity needs [Nov 14]
(source – pfizer/reuters)
Fed’s Logan: Would be hard to support December rate cut [Nov 14]
(source – pfizer/reuters)
WELCOME TO THE GOLDEN AGE [Nov 16]
(source – WhiteHouse)
The comments are worth reading.
Currencies
The buck fell 0.27 [-0.27%] to 99.20, printing a bearish “swing high” candle pattern, and entering a daily downtrend. Most of the damage happened on Tuesday and Thursday, with a modest recovery on Friday.
- Winners: EUR [+0.31%], AUD [+1.04%], RMB [-0.32%], CHF [-1.18%], CAD [-0.35%]
- Losers: JPY [+1.06%]
This week’s “rally” in JPY marked a 9-month high for JPY, where high = bad, since more Yen are required for each buck you want to buy. All the other currencies did well against the buck. Why did JPY do poorly?
Japan is having
by cmartenson