- Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS): +216k (+0.14% m/m).
- Working Part-Time (Only PTW Available): +30k m/m; still low, non-recessionary.
- Working Part-Time (Slack Work); +170k m/m; still low, non-recessionary.
- Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR): +5.7B (+0.03% w/w). Flat.
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): -31.8B (-0.41% w/w); New almost-3-year low.
- 30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US); 6.62% (+1 bp). Just off the low.
- 10 Year Treasury (DGS10); 4.04% (+16 bp w/w). Reversal off the lows.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserve (WCSSTUS1); +1100k (+0.30% w/w). Modest refill.
While the headline payrolls number looked surprisingly good, there were some oddities:
CE16OV (employed) -683k -0.42%
CLF16OV (working/looking) -676k -0.40%
CNP16OV (total population) +169k +0.06%
PAYEMS (nonfarm payrolls) +216k +0.14%
What’s a CE160OV? Civilian Employment, 16 years or over. This month, it dropped hard (-683k). So how can total nonfarm payrolls (PAYEMS) grow by +216k in the same month? I have no idea. Something seems off here. “The market” definitely was mixed in its response. Prices sold off, then they rallied, and then sold off again.
How is the recession going? One of my “payrolls” recession indicators (“part-time work”) remains as-of-yet un-triggered. In the chart below, the black squares indicate recessions – which are always “noticed” by economists about six months after they happen. In the old days, before the “Safe & Effective Elephant in the Room” disabled those 3.8 million US civilians 16+, these two part-time work indicators would scream higher, indicating the arrival of a recession in semi-real-time. Clever people could see the jump, and intuit what “the experts” would notice 6-12 months later about the poor state of the economy. These measure “involuntary part-time workers” – “something economic” made it so there wasn’t full-time work for them.
Today: no big jump higher in involuntary part-time work implies, for the most part, no “recession” – at least not one visible to the labor force. The “slack work” group (red line) is slowly edging higher, but no breakout to the upside just yet. Certainly nothing like what we saw in 2008.
I’ve been hypothesizing for a while (after listening to Ed Dowd) that the tidal wave of post-mandate disability has kept the US workforce (the ones that survived, and aren’t disabled) at full employment.
by cmartenson