page-loading-spinner

Podcast

Image | The Massive Coming Oil Shock
The Massive Coming Oil Shock
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why America Will NOT Soon Become A Net Exporter Of Oil
  • The Gross Global Mis-Pricing Of Risk
  • The New Fed Looks Even Worse Than The Old
  • What You Should Do To Prepare

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Great Oil Swindle, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The "America Will Soon Be A Net Exporter Of Oil" Big Fat Lie

This brings us to the part where the oil myth has gone entirely off the rails.  Using the fraudulent oil recovery (EUR) estimates in play, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has built that into an outlook that might not only be wrong, but decisively and destructively wrong.

The IEA came out with a bombshell report recently that dramatically claims the US will not only become a net oil exporter in 2025 and remain as such for decades afterward, but that it will be able to increase its production by another incremental 8 million barrels per day above current levels:

US will become a net oil exporter within 10 years, says IEA

Nov 13, 2017

The shale revolution in north America means the US is destined to become a net oil exporter within 10 years, for the first time since the 1950s.

The International Energy Agency said it expected that American oil production between 2010 and 2025 would grow at a rate unparalleled by any country in history, with far-reaching consequences for the US and the world.

The last time the US exported more oil than it imported was 1953, and a ban on oil exports was lifted only in 2015.

Technological developments in drilling and fracking since the turn of this century have unlocked huge reserves of gas and oil trapped in shale rock, and redrawn the energy landscape.

 

(Source)

Well, I can assure you that if the IEA is using EUR’s that are off by 100%, then its projections are not only laughably wrong, but extremely dangerous.

Based on this sort of deeply-flawed analysis, anybody making plans off of this, which might include politicians, regulators, companies, or individuals deciding on whether or not to buy that F350 truck with a 15+ year lifespan, is relying on some very bad information.

And more than that, it's critical for us to understand how oil is about to violently…

The Massive Coming Oil Shock
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • Why America Will NOT Soon Become A Net Exporter Of Oil
  • The Gross Global Mis-Pricing Of Risk
  • The New Fed Looks Even Worse Than The Old
  • What You Should Do To Prepare

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Great Oil Swindle, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

The "America Will Soon Be A Net Exporter Of Oil" Big Fat Lie

This brings us to the part where the oil myth has gone entirely off the rails.  Using the fraudulent oil recovery (EUR) estimates in play, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has built that into an outlook that might not only be wrong, but decisively and destructively wrong.

The IEA came out with a bombshell report recently that dramatically claims the US will not only become a net oil exporter in 2025 and remain as such for decades afterward, but that it will be able to increase its production by another incremental 8 million barrels per day above current levels:

US will become a net oil exporter within 10 years, says IEA

Nov 13, 2017

The shale revolution in north America means the US is destined to become a net oil exporter within 10 years, for the first time since the 1950s.

The International Energy Agency said it expected that American oil production between 2010 and 2025 would grow at a rate unparalleled by any country in history, with far-reaching consequences for the US and the world.

The last time the US exported more oil than it imported was 1953, and a ban on oil exports was lifted only in 2015.

Technological developments in drilling and fracking since the turn of this century have unlocked huge reserves of gas and oil trapped in shale rock, and redrawn the energy landscape.

 

(Source)

Well, I can assure you that if the IEA is using EUR’s that are off by 100%, then its projections are not only laughably wrong, but extremely dangerous.

Based on this sort of deeply-flawed analysis, anybody making plans off of this, which might include politicians, regulators, companies, or individuals deciding on whether or not to buy that F350 truck with a 15+ year lifespan, is relying on some very bad information.

And more than that, it's critical for us to understand how oil is about to violently…

Image | Off The Cuff: Are We About To See Taper Tantrum 2.0?
Off The Cuff: Are We About To See Taper Tantrum 2.0?
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss: Taper Tantrum 2.0? The Fed wants to tighten. But can it? Bad Balance Sheets Can central banks simply hold their bad assets forever? The Flattening Yield Curve A classic signal of approaching recession Bitcoin Trying to make sense of the recent run-up Recorded before…
Off The Cuff: Are We About To See Taper Tantrum 2.0?
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss: Taper Tantrum 2.0? The Fed wants to tighten. But can it? Bad Balance Sheets Can central banks simply hold their bad assets forever? The Flattening Yield Curve A classic signal of approaching recession Bitcoin Trying to make sense of the recent run-up Recorded before…
Image | The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail
The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail
by charleshughsmith

Central banks are now trapped.

If they raise rates to provide low-risk, high-yield returns to institutional owners, they will stifle the “recovery” and the asset bubbles that are dependent on unlimited liquidity and super-low interest rates. But if they keep yields low, the only way institutional investors can earn the gains they need to survive is to pile into risk assets and hope the current bubbles will loft higher.

This conundrum has pushed the central banks into yet another policy extreme: to mask the rising systemic risk created by asset bubbles, central banks have taken to suppressing measures of volatility—measures than in previous eras would reflect the rising risks of extreme asset bubbles deflating.
The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail
 by charleshughsmith

Central banks are now trapped.

If they raise rates to provide low-risk, high-yield returns to institutional owners, they will stifle the “recovery” and the asset bubbles that are dependent on unlimited liquidity and super-low interest rates. But if they keep yields low, the only way institutional investors can earn the gains they need to survive is to pile into risk assets and hope the current bubbles will loft higher.

This conundrum has pushed the central banks into yet another policy extreme: to mask the rising systemic risk created by asset bubbles, central banks have taken to suppressing measures of volatility—measures than in previous eras would reflect the rising risks of extreme asset bubbles deflating.
Image | So What Comes Next & How Can We Prepare For It?
So What Comes Next & How Can We Prepare For It?
 PREVIEW
by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The dangerous unintended risks and consequences of central bank policies
  • Returns diminish as you move along the expansion S-curve
  • Why the current practice of moderating extremes will fail
  • What comes next & how to prepare for it

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we covered the financial system’s dependence on credit, and the central bank’s conundrum: they can’t raise rates without stifling the credit-binge-dependent “recovery” and asset bubbles, but they also can’t keep pushing asset bubbles higher without increasing systemic risks, as valuations are already stretched to historic extremes.

So what happens next?  Can central banks raise rates without popping the bubbles the system needs to remain solvent? Or can they keep yields near zero and keep pushing asset valuations higher for years or decades to come?

I hate to spoil the ending, but the short answer is: these are incompatible goals.  The central banks cannot raise yields (i.e. normalize rates to historically average levels) and push asset valuations higher, nor can they eliminate the systemic risk generated by extreme valuations and leverage.

Unintended Risks and Consequences

Extreme financial policies generate unintended consequences as a result of being extreme: a moderate policy wouldn’t have the “whatever it takes” impact, but it also wouldn’t jam all the levers to maximum.

Once the levers are on maximum, the extremes generate instability and blowback, as those who benefit from the extremes are incentivized to go even deeper into speculative gambles in the mistaken belief that “the central banks have my back” while those who did not benefit express their dissatisfaction in the political arena, a dynamic that is often dismissed or derided as “populism.”

Central banks have suppressed measures of volatility in an effort to mask the rising risk that their policy extremes will trigger…   [enroll now to continue reading]

So What Comes Next & How Can We Prepare For It?
 PREVIEW by charleshughsmith

Executive Summary

  • The dangerous unintended risks and consequences of central bank policies
  • Returns diminish as you move along the expansion S-curve
  • Why the current practice of moderating extremes will fail
  • What comes next & how to prepare for it

If you have not yet read Part 1: The Inescapable Reason Why the Financial System Will Fail, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

In Part 1, we covered the financial system’s dependence on credit, and the central bank’s conundrum: they can’t raise rates without stifling the credit-binge-dependent “recovery” and asset bubbles, but they also can’t keep pushing asset bubbles higher without increasing systemic risks, as valuations are already stretched to historic extremes.

So what happens next?  Can central banks raise rates without popping the bubbles the system needs to remain solvent? Or can they keep yields near zero and keep pushing asset valuations higher for years or decades to come?

I hate to spoil the ending, but the short answer is: these are incompatible goals.  The central banks cannot raise yields (i.e. normalize rates to historically average levels) and push asset valuations higher, nor can they eliminate the systemic risk generated by extreme valuations and leverage.

Unintended Risks and Consequences

Extreme financial policies generate unintended consequences as a result of being extreme: a moderate policy wouldn’t have the “whatever it takes” impact, but it also wouldn’t jam all the levers to maximum.

Once the levers are on maximum, the extremes generate instability and blowback, as those who benefit from the extremes are incentivized to go even deeper into speculative gambles in the mistaken belief that “the central banks have my back” while those who did not benefit express their dissatisfaction in the political arena, a dynamic that is often dismissed or derided as “populism.”

Central banks have suppressed measures of volatility in an effort to mask the rising risk that their policy extremes will trigger…   [enroll now to continue reading]

Image | Doug Noland: There Will Be No Way Out When This Market Bubble Bursts
Doug Noland: There Will Be No Way Out When This Market Bubble Bursts
by Chris Martenson

This week Doug Noland joins the podcast to discuss what he refers to as the "granddaddy of all bubbles".

He certainly shares our views that prices in nearly every financial asset class have become remarkably distorted due to central bank intervention, first with Greenspan's actions to backstop the markets in the late-1980's, and more recently (and more egregiously) with the combined central banking cartel's massive and sustained liquidity injections in the years following the Great Financial Crisis.

All of which has blown the biggest inter-connected set of asset price bubbles the world has ever seen. Noland foresees tremendous losses as inevitable, as the central banks lose control of the monstrosity they have created:
Doug Noland: There Will Be No Way Out When This Market Bubble Bursts
 by Chris Martenson

This week Doug Noland joins the podcast to discuss what he refers to as the "granddaddy of all bubbles".

He certainly shares our views that prices in nearly every financial asset class have become remarkably distorted due to central bank intervention, first with Greenspan's actions to backstop the markets in the late-1980's, and more recently (and more egregiously) with the combined central banking cartel's massive and sustained liquidity injections in the years following the Great Financial Crisis.

All of which has blown the biggest inter-connected set of asset price bubbles the world has ever seen. Noland foresees tremendous losses as inevitable, as the central banks lose control of the monstrosity they have created:
Image | If You Don’t Own Any Bitcoin, Read This
If You Don’t Own Any Bitcoin, Read This
by Adam Taggart

Bitcoin's price has gone 'beyond exponential' this week.

Just yesterday, while I was working on this article, it shot up 22% — from $14,000 to $17,000 (hitting an intraday high of $19,000). And that's after a mind-blowing upwards rocket ride over the past several months. I think it's safe to say that the vicious melt-up in price over such a short timeframe has surpassed the expectations of even the starriest-eyed Bitcoin fanboys.

The whole world, especially the 99.99% of us that own zero cryptocurrency, is asking: What happens next? And, What should I do?

Is this insane trajectory going to continue for a lot longer? Do I need to get in now to avoid missing this once-in-lifetime fortune-making opportunity?

Or is this a classic bubble blow-off top? Is this the deadliest time to enter, right before the price implodes?

 
If You Don’t Own Any Bitcoin, Read This
 by Adam Taggart

Bitcoin's price has gone 'beyond exponential' this week.

Just yesterday, while I was working on this article, it shot up 22% — from $14,000 to $17,000 (hitting an intraday high of $19,000). And that's after a mind-blowing upwards rocket ride over the past several months. I think it's safe to say that the vicious melt-up in price over such a short timeframe has surpassed the expectations of even the starriest-eyed Bitcoin fanboys.

The whole world, especially the 99.99% of us that own zero cryptocurrency, is asking: What happens next? And, What should I do?

Is this insane trajectory going to continue for a lot longer? Do I need to get in now to avoid missing this once-in-lifetime fortune-making opportunity?

Or is this a classic bubble blow-off top? Is this the deadliest time to enter, right before the price implodes?

 
Image | Lewis Dartnell: How To Rebuild The World From Scratch
Lewis Dartnell: How To Rebuild The World From Scratch
by Chris Martenson

If our technological society collapsed tomorrow, what crucial knowledge would we need to survive in the immediate aftermath and to rebuild civilization as quickly as possible?

Ask yourself this: If you had to go back to absolute basics like some sort of post-cataclysmic Robinson Caruso, would you know how to recreate an internal combustion engine? Put together a microscope? Get metals out of rock? Or produce food for yourself?
Lewis Dartnell: How To Rebuild The World From Scratch
 by Chris Martenson

If our technological society collapsed tomorrow, what crucial knowledge would we need to survive in the immediate aftermath and to rebuild civilization as quickly as possible?

Ask yourself this: If you had to go back to absolute basics like some sort of post-cataclysmic Robinson Caruso, would you know how to recreate an internal combustion engine? Put together a microscope? Get metals out of rock? Or produce food for yourself?
Image | When The Bubbles Burst…
When The Bubbles Burst…
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • It's Time To Name The Guilty
  • The Gross Global Mis-Pricing Of Risk
  • The New Fed Looks Even Worse Than The Old
  • What You Should Do To Prepare

If you have not yet read Part 1: You're Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

So I just want to raise my hand here and say that I am in favor of handing out serious punishments to the central bankers who negligently placed all but a very tiny few directly into harm’s way, knowingly and maliciously.  They knew they were harming pensions, savers, retirees, the young, the poor and the middle-classes.   They knew what they were doing was harming an entire generation of young people, fostering a deeply unfair and ultimately dangers wealth and income gap, and backstopping bank losses even (especially?) when those banks did stupid things that deserved losses. 

Yet they insisted and they persisted.  And here we are, with the third set of bubbles in 20 years and the largest wealth and income gaps in all of history.  I say the people responsible should be held accountable.

This Time Is Going To Be Different?

When these bubbles burst, and trust me they will, the aftermath is going to be especially ugly.  Like all bubbles, we’ll discover that a vast amount of lending took place towards ideas and projects and in support of spending habits that really should not have been undertaken.

Credit bubbles always end up making a pile of loans to really derelict ideas.  This time is no different, except the scale is so much larger.  There are so many bright red warning lights that it’s difficult to figure out which ones to convey.

Like the charts above, each one of these next charts could easily be an entire meditation that, if deeply understood, would reveal the whole story.  So settle in, take a deep breath and please consider the following.

First up, we have this deeply shocking chart for which the data has only gotten more shocking in recent months…

When The Bubbles Burst…
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

Executive Summary

  • It's Time To Name The Guilty
  • The Gross Global Mis-Pricing Of Risk
  • The New Fed Looks Even Worse Than The Old
  • What You Should Do To Prepare

If you have not yet read Part 1: You're Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.

So I just want to raise my hand here and say that I am in favor of handing out serious punishments to the central bankers who negligently placed all but a very tiny few directly into harm’s way, knowingly and maliciously.  They knew they were harming pensions, savers, retirees, the young, the poor and the middle-classes.   They knew what they were doing was harming an entire generation of young people, fostering a deeply unfair and ultimately dangers wealth and income gap, and backstopping bank losses even (especially?) when those banks did stupid things that deserved losses. 

Yet they insisted and they persisted.  And here we are, with the third set of bubbles in 20 years and the largest wealth and income gaps in all of history.  I say the people responsible should be held accountable.

This Time Is Going To Be Different?

When these bubbles burst, and trust me they will, the aftermath is going to be especially ugly.  Like all bubbles, we’ll discover that a vast amount of lending took place towards ideas and projects and in support of spending habits that really should not have been undertaken.

Credit bubbles always end up making a pile of loans to really derelict ideas.  This time is no different, except the scale is so much larger.  There are so many bright red warning lights that it’s difficult to figure out which ones to convey.

Like the charts above, each one of these next charts could easily be an entire meditation that, if deeply understood, would reveal the whole story.  So settle in, take a deep breath and please consider the following.

First up, we have this deeply shocking chart for which the data has only gotten more shocking in recent months…

Image | You’re Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming
You’re Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming
by Chris Martenson

All bubbles burst — painfully of course. That’s their very nature. Mathematically, it's impossible for half or more of a bubble's participants to close out their positions for a gain. But in reality, it's even worse. Being generous, maybe 10% manage to get out in time.

That means the remaining 90% don’t. For these bagholders, the losses will range from 'painful' to 'financially fatal'.

Which brings us to the conclusion that a similar proportion of people will be emotionally unprepared for the bursting of these bubbles.  Again, playing the odds, I'm talking about you. 
You’re Just Not Prepared For What’s Coming
 by Chris Martenson

All bubbles burst — painfully of course. That’s their very nature. Mathematically, it's impossible for half or more of a bubble's participants to close out their positions for a gain. But in reality, it's even worse. Being generous, maybe 10% manage to get out in time.

That means the remaining 90% don’t. For these bagholders, the losses will range from 'painful' to 'financially fatal'.

Which brings us to the conclusion that a similar proportion of people will be emotionally unprepared for the bursting of these bubbles.  Again, playing the odds, I'm talking about you. 
Image | Off The Cuff: The Central Banks Are Starting To Really Worry
Off The Cuff: The Central Banks Are Starting To Really Worry
 PREVIEW
by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discusses: Worried Central Banks The risks of financial instability are mounting The Cryptocurrency Conundrum Can the central banks afford not to contain it? Too Much Leverage When credit tightens, the system will crash Housing Harm Many regional real estate markets are poised to burst…
Off The Cuff: The Central Banks Are Starting To Really Worry
 PREVIEW by Chris Martenson

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Wolf Richter discusses: Worried Central Banks The risks of financial instability are mounting The Cryptocurrency Conundrum Can the central banks afford not to contain it? Too Much Leverage When credit tightens, the system will crash Housing Harm Many regional real estate markets are poised to burst…
Total 6227 items
Image | Peak Financial Investing – Homepage
Image | Above Phone – Homepage
Image | Join Peak
Image | GoldCore
Image | Proton Mail
Image | Crash Course 2.0 Now Available!
Image | Show Off Your Peak Pride!
Image | Peak Financial Investing – Homepage

Daily Digest

Please login to submit a story to the Daily Digest.

View Past Daily Digests

Image | Above Phone – Homepage
Image | Join Peak
Image | GoldCore
Image | Proton Mail
Image | Crash Course 2.0 Now Available!
Image | Show Off Your Peak Pride!