by
Brian Pretti
Podcast
by
Brian Pretti
Executive Summary
- What the NACM Index and the Atlanta GDPNow are telling us about the odds of returning to recession
- Bond market volatility is picking up
- Are central banks are losing their control?
- Why monitoring credit markets will be our best indicator of the next downturn
If you have not yet read Part 1: As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
That indicator is the current level of the National Association of Credit Managers Index. Although not wildly well known, the National Association of Credit Managers Index is an indicator deserving of attention and monitoring immediately ahead.
As per the National Association of Credit Management (NACM), the Credit Managers Index is a monthly survey of responses from US credit and collections professionals rating factors such as sales, credit availability, new credit applications, accounts placed on collection, etc. The NACM tells us that numeric response levels above 50 represent an economy in expansionary mode, which means readings below 50 connote economic contraction. For now, the index rests in territory connoting economic expansion, but the index is also sitting quite near a 6 year low. We’ve been here before in the current cycle as the economy has moved in fits and starts in terms of the character of growth:
In a prior discussion, I mentioned the slowing in the US economy in the first quarter of 2015. I highlighted the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model that turned out to be very correct in its assessment of Q1 US GDP. While the Atlanta Fed was predicting a 0.1% Q1 GDP growth rate number, the Blue Chip Economists were expecting 1.4% growth. When the 0.2% number was reported, it turns out the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was virtually right on the mark. As of now, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is predicting a…
The Central Banks Are Losing Control Of The System
PREVIEW by Brian PrettiExecutive Summary
- What the NACM Index and the Atlanta GDPNow are telling us about the odds of returning to recession
- Bond market volatility is picking up
- Are central banks are losing their control?
- Why monitoring credit markets will be our best indicator of the next downturn
If you have not yet read Part 1: As Goes The Credit Market, So Goes The World available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
That indicator is the current level of the National Association of Credit Managers Index. Although not wildly well known, the National Association of Credit Managers Index is an indicator deserving of attention and monitoring immediately ahead.
As per the National Association of Credit Management (NACM), the Credit Managers Index is a monthly survey of responses from US credit and collections professionals rating factors such as sales, credit availability, new credit applications, accounts placed on collection, etc. The NACM tells us that numeric response levels above 50 represent an economy in expansionary mode, which means readings below 50 connote economic contraction. For now, the index rests in territory connoting economic expansion, but the index is also sitting quite near a 6 year low. We’ve been here before in the current cycle as the economy has moved in fits and starts in terms of the character of growth:
In a prior discussion, I mentioned the slowing in the US economy in the first quarter of 2015. I highlighted the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model that turned out to be very correct in its assessment of Q1 US GDP. While the Atlanta Fed was predicting a 0.1% Q1 GDP growth rate number, the Blue Chip Economists were expecting 1.4% growth. When the 0.2% number was reported, it turns out the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model was virtually right on the mark. As of now, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is predicting a…
by
claytonk
by
JW
by
Chris Martenson
Much has been written here at PeakProsperity.com of late about the need for society to adopt a new narrative to live by. One deeply-ingrained with sustainability and stewardship — else our current fixation with consumption and exploitation of nature's finite resources will meet a very predictable and unpleasant end.
So, for those that agree a new operating story is needed: Where do we start?
This week, author Charles Eisenstein joins Chris and Becca to discuss their upcoming participation in The New Story festival, a gathering specifically focused on sparking momentum behind this important movement. More details on the event, which takes place in Bethany CT on June 12-13th, can be found here.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Charles Eisenstein and Becca Martenson (45m:51s)
Charles Eisenstein: Crafting A New Narrative
by Chris MartensonMuch has been written here at PeakProsperity.com of late about the need for society to adopt a new narrative to live by. One deeply-ingrained with sustainability and stewardship — else our current fixation with consumption and exploitation of nature's finite resources will meet a very predictable and unpleasant end.
So, for those that agree a new operating story is needed: Where do we start?
This week, author Charles Eisenstein joins Chris and Becca to discuss their upcoming participation in The New Story festival, a gathering specifically focused on sparking momentum behind this important movement. More details on the event, which takes place in Bethany CT on June 12-13th, can be found here.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Charles Eisenstein and Becca Martenson (45m:51s)
by
Chris Martenson
Executive Summary
- There is not nearly enough net energy to meet our growth expectations in our lifetime
- We are past the "tipping point". A hard rendezvous with limits to growth will arrive in the next 2 decades
- What you can do to avoid that pain that the majority undoutedly will face
- Prepare for the current "mother of all bubbles" to burst soon
If you have not yet read, In Denial: We Pursue Endless Growth At Our Peril available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Energy Denial
It is said that you cannot explain water to a fish and I have nearly as difficult time trying to explain energy to people today. We are surrounded by it so completely it is difficult to properly appreciate.
But it is in every particle of food you eat, every piece of furniture in your house, every item you wear, and every trip you take — are all 100% dependent on energy that came from somewhere and subsidizes every single item and action.
Fossil fuels are the vast majority of all the energy we use and, it cannot be repeated enough, they visibly and invisibly subsidize the so-called renewables, too. By that I mean solar and wind power cannot be generated until and unless the components are first manufactured and installed. And those activities are nearly 100% driven by fossil fuels today.
To grasp this more fully, watch this time-lapse video of a wind tower being installed and, while marveling at the ingenuity and speed of the team involved, think about where all of the components came from:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84BeVq2Jm88
How were the cranes, bulldozers and trucks built? What fuels do they run on? How did all those workers get there? Who grew their food and how did they come to eat it? How are the roads they drove on built and maintained? How is concrete made and how did it all get to the job site? What do the factories and foundries run on that built the windmill? How far did each windmill component have to travel before arriving at the site?
The answer to all of those questions is…
Life Beyond The Tipping Point
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonExecutive Summary
- There is not nearly enough net energy to meet our growth expectations in our lifetime
- We are past the "tipping point". A hard rendezvous with limits to growth will arrive in the next 2 decades
- What you can do to avoid that pain that the majority undoutedly will face
- Prepare for the current "mother of all bubbles" to burst soon
If you have not yet read, In Denial: We Pursue Endless Growth At Our Peril available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Energy Denial
It is said that you cannot explain water to a fish and I have nearly as difficult time trying to explain energy to people today. We are surrounded by it so completely it is difficult to properly appreciate.
But it is in every particle of food you eat, every piece of furniture in your house, every item you wear, and every trip you take — are all 100% dependent on energy that came from somewhere and subsidizes every single item and action.
Fossil fuels are the vast majority of all the energy we use and, it cannot be repeated enough, they visibly and invisibly subsidize the so-called renewables, too. By that I mean solar and wind power cannot be generated until and unless the components are first manufactured and installed. And those activities are nearly 100% driven by fossil fuels today.
To grasp this more fully, watch this time-lapse video of a wind tower being installed and, while marveling at the ingenuity and speed of the team involved, think about where all of the components came from:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84BeVq2Jm88
How were the cranes, bulldozers and trucks built? What fuels do they run on? How did all those workers get there? Who grew their food and how did they come to eat it? How are the roads they drove on built and maintained? How is concrete made and how did it all get to the job site? What do the factories and foundries run on that built the windmill? How far did each windmill component have to travel before arriving at the site?
The answer to all of those questions is…
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