Podcast
by
JW
by
JW
by
JW
by
David Collum
Background
I was just trying to figure it all out.
~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager
Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.
For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4
Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5
2012 Year in Review
by David CollumBackground
I was just trying to figure it all out.
~ Michael Burry, hedge fund manager
Every December, I write a Year in Review that has now found a home at Chris Martenson’s website PeakProsperity.com.1,2,3 What started as a simple summary intended for a couple dozen people morphed over time into a much more detailed account that accrued over 25,000 clicks last year.4 'Year in Review' is a bit of a misnomer in that it is both a collage of what happened, plus a smattering of issues that are on my radar right now. As to why people care what an organic chemist thinks about investing, economics, monetary policy, and societal moods I can only offer a few thoughts.
For starters, in 33 years of investing with a decidedly undiversified portfolio, I had only one year in which my total wealth decreased in nominal dollars. For the 13 years beginning 01/01/00—the 13 toughest investing years of the new millennium!—I have been able to compound my personal wealth at an 11% annualized rate. This holds up well against the pros. I am also fairly good at distilling complexity down to simplicity and seem to be a congenital contrarian. I also have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory—i.e., free market economics—since the late 1990s.4
Each review begins with a highly personalized analysis of my efforts to get through another year of investing followed by a more holistic overview of what is now a 33-year quest for a ramen-soup-free retirement. These details may be instructive for those interested in my approach to investing. The bulk of the review, however, describes thoughts and observations—the year’s events told as a narrative. The links are copious, albeit not comprehensive. Some are flagged with enthusiasm. Everything can be found here.5
by
David Collum
by
David Collum
Background
(1) http://disgu.st/~jon/books/david_collum-30_years_investing.pdf
(2) https://www.peakprosperitycom.bigscoots-staging.com/forum/david-b-collums-2010-year-review/50352
(3) https://www.peakprosperitycom.bigscoots-staging.com/blog/2011-year-review-david-collum/67586
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory
(5) http://lmgtfy.com/?q=How+do+I+google+something%3F
2012 Year in Review – Reference Links
by David CollumBackground
(1) http://disgu.st/~jon/books/david_collum-30_years_investing.pdf
(2) https://www.peakprosperitycom.bigscoots-staging.com/forum/david-b-collums-2010-year-review/50352
(3) https://www.peakprosperitycom.bigscoots-staging.com/blog/2011-year-review-david-collum/67586
(4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory
(5) http://lmgtfy.com/?q=How+do+I+google+something%3F
by
Gregor Macdonald
Executive Summary
- Peak Oil is a multifactorial concept
- Why the IEA forecasts aren't credible
- Why the data shows Peak Oil is alive & well
- Where oil prices will head in 2013
If you have not yet read A Tale of Two Forecasts, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The U.S. is currently experiencing its second oil production recovery since 1971, when its supply peaked over 9.5 mbpd.
The first recovery took place over a nine-year period from 1976-1985. That renaissance took U.S. production back up from a low of 8.0 mbpd to nearly 9.0 mbpd. And then, over the next twenty years, U.S. production would fall steadily to its recent nadir of 5 mbpd in 2008. Over the past four years (owing to onshore production in North Dakota and Texas), the U.S. has built back an impressive 1.5 mbpd and is currently producing over 6.5 mbpd of crude oil.
Before we get to the IEA Paris forecast for the future U.S. production, let's take a look at our own Energy Information Administration (EIA) Washington forecast. The IEA Paris forecast is more difficult to understand, as it conflates oil and natural gas liquids. By contrast, the EIA Washington forecast is more specifically focused on oil production, which is easier to compare to U.S. production history. (Remember: Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are not oil. More importantly, they do not contain the same energy as oil. A barrel of oil contains 6 GJ (gigajoules) of energy, but a barrel of NGL contains just 4 GJ.)
Here is the forecast to 2040, from the EIA's (Washington) recent Annual Energy Outlook:
Dissecting the Energy “Boom” Story
PREVIEW by Gregor MacdonaldExecutive Summary
- Peak Oil is a multifactorial concept
- Why the IEA forecasts aren't credible
- Why the data shows Peak Oil is alive & well
- Where oil prices will head in 2013
If you have not yet read A Tale of Two Forecasts, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
The U.S. is currently experiencing its second oil production recovery since 1971, when its supply peaked over 9.5 mbpd.
The first recovery took place over a nine-year period from 1976-1985. That renaissance took U.S. production back up from a low of 8.0 mbpd to nearly 9.0 mbpd. And then, over the next twenty years, U.S. production would fall steadily to its recent nadir of 5 mbpd in 2008. Over the past four years (owing to onshore production in North Dakota and Texas), the U.S. has built back an impressive 1.5 mbpd and is currently producing over 6.5 mbpd of crude oil.
Before we get to the IEA Paris forecast for the future U.S. production, let's take a look at our own Energy Information Administration (EIA) Washington forecast. The IEA Paris forecast is more difficult to understand, as it conflates oil and natural gas liquids. By contrast, the EIA Washington forecast is more specifically focused on oil production, which is easier to compare to U.S. production history. (Remember: Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are not oil. More importantly, they do not contain the same energy as oil. A barrel of oil contains 6 GJ (gigajoules) of energy, but a barrel of NGL contains just 4 GJ.)
Here is the forecast to 2040, from the EIA's (Washington) recent Annual Energy Outlook:
by
Gregor Macdonald
It was the best of times; it was the worst of times for the American public over the past month, as it was treated to two high-profile, but deeply conflicting, economic forecasts.
Despite declaring in 2008 that the age of cheap oil was over, the International Energy Agency (IEA) surprisingly announced last week that the United States would become the largest oil producer in the world by 2020. Hooray! This superlative declaration titillated U.S. media organizations, who understand quite well that Americans love to secure a #1 ranking in just about any category (save for prison incarceration, divorce rates, and obesity). As I explained to the Keiser Report, however, the IEA has done little more than produce an attention grabbing headline here. Simply ranking the 'top oil producer' in 2020 may mean much less than the public currently understands.
A Tale of Two Forecasts
by Gregor MacdonaldIt was the best of times; it was the worst of times for the American public over the past month, as it was treated to two high-profile, but deeply conflicting, economic forecasts.
Despite declaring in 2008 that the age of cheap oil was over, the International Energy Agency (IEA) surprisingly announced last week that the United States would become the largest oil producer in the world by 2020. Hooray! This superlative declaration titillated U.S. media organizations, who understand quite well that Americans love to secure a #1 ranking in just about any category (save for prison incarceration, divorce rates, and obesity). As I explained to the Keiser Report, however, the IEA has done little more than produce an attention grabbing headline here. Simply ranking the 'top oil producer' in 2020 may mean much less than the public currently understands.
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