Podcast
by
Chris Martenson
Back in the 1930s, Irving Fisher introduced a concept called the 'debt supercycle.' Simply put, it posits that when there is a buildup of too much debt within an economy, there reaches a point where there simply is no other available solution but to let it rewind.
We are at that point in our economy, as are most other major economies around the world, claims John Maudlin, author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter and the recent bestselling book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything.
For the past several decades, excessive and increasing amounts of credit in the system have allowed us to live above our means as both individuals and nations. We've been able to have our cake and eat it, too. Now that the supercycle has ended and the inevitable de-leveraging cycle is staring us in the face, we will be forced to set priorities in a way that has been foreign to our society for over a generation.
John Mauldin: It’s Time to Make the Hard Decisions
by Chris MartensonBack in the 1930s, Irving Fisher introduced a concept called the 'debt supercycle.' Simply put, it posits that when there is a buildup of too much debt within an economy, there reaches a point where there simply is no other available solution but to let it rewind.
We are at that point in our economy, as are most other major economies around the world, claims John Maudlin, author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline newsletter and the recent bestselling book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything.
For the past several decades, excessive and increasing amounts of credit in the system have allowed us to live above our means as both individuals and nations. We've been able to have our cake and eat it, too. Now that the supercycle has ended and the inevitable de-leveraging cycle is staring us in the face, we will be forced to set priorities in a way that has been foreign to our society for over a generation.
by
admin-2
by
Chris Martenson
In this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish set their sights on:
The Fed
- 0% interest rates through 2014 (at least!). There’s not even a pretense left now about whom its policies are really directed at helping.
- Europe
- In the words of Shakespeare, the latest proposals are simply “sound and fury, signifying nothing.” At this point, a deep and prolonged recession is a certainty.
- Japan
- Decades of can-kicking are coming to their limit. 2012 could well be the year Japan topples into crisis.
Recorded on Wednesday, this podcast features Chris and Mish tackling the parade of head-scratching news announced by various governments and central banks this week. It’s almost as if these entities are competing with each other for the Darwin Award.
Off the Cuff: It’s a Mad, Mad World
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonIn this week’s Off the Cuff with Mish & Chris podcast, Chris and Mish set their sights on:
The Fed
- 0% interest rates through 2014 (at least!). There’s not even a pretense left now about whom its policies are really directed at helping.
- Europe
- In the words of Shakespeare, the latest proposals are simply “sound and fury, signifying nothing.” At this point, a deep and prolonged recession is a certainty.
- Japan
- Decades of can-kicking are coming to their limit. 2012 could well be the year Japan topples into crisis.
Recorded on Wednesday, this podcast features Chris and Mish tackling the parade of head-scratching news announced by various governments and central banks this week. It’s almost as if these entities are competing with each other for the Darwin Award.
by
charleshughsmith
Determining the Housing Bottom for Your Local Market
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Monday, January 23, 2012
Executive Summary
- Why we may need to revisit how we determine “fair market value”
- Local factors to consider
- The importance of sentiment, and how to use it to your advantage
- The emerging two-tier pricing structure for most markets
- Five tools that will enable you to estimate how near (or far off) prices in your local area are from a bottom
Part I: Searching for the Bottom in Home Prices
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Determining the Housing Bottom for Your Local Market
In Part I, we examined how the policies of the federal housing agencies and Federal Reserve have fundamentally socialized the US mortgage markets and are propping up housing sales and valuations via zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), housing subsidies, and various loan guarantees.
Along with the structural factors outlined in my December series, Headwinds for Housing, this is the backdrop for our individual assessments of is this the bottom in my local real estate market?
Why This Time May Indeed Be Different
Before we look at some tools that will help us make that assessment, I want to stipulate that this overview is aimed at small-time investors, not institutional players, and that it may first strike experienced real estate investors as too basic. However, we must be alert to the possibility that this real estate market, so dependent on Central State intervention, ownership and policy, is qualitatively different from previous eras. And so the lessons of previous markets could be misleading, akin to “fighting the last war.” Thus we would be wise to start with the most basic tools as a foundation for further investigation.
Determining the Housing Bottom for Your Local Market
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithDetermining the Housing Bottom for Your Local Market
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Monday, January 23, 2012
Executive Summary
- Why we may need to revisit how we determine “fair market value”
- Local factors to consider
- The importance of sentiment, and how to use it to your advantage
- The emerging two-tier pricing structure for most markets
- Five tools that will enable you to estimate how near (or far off) prices in your local area are from a bottom
Part I: Searching for the Bottom in Home Prices
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Determining the Housing Bottom for Your Local Market
In Part I, we examined how the policies of the federal housing agencies and Federal Reserve have fundamentally socialized the US mortgage markets and are propping up housing sales and valuations via zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP), housing subsidies, and various loan guarantees.
Along with the structural factors outlined in my December series, Headwinds for Housing, this is the backdrop for our individual assessments of is this the bottom in my local real estate market?
Why This Time May Indeed Be Different
Before we look at some tools that will help us make that assessment, I want to stipulate that this overview is aimed at small-time investors, not institutional players, and that it may first strike experienced real estate investors as too basic. However, we must be alert to the possibility that this real estate market, so dependent on Central State intervention, ownership and policy, is qualitatively different from previous eras. And so the lessons of previous markets could be misleading, akin to “fighting the last war.” Thus we would be wise to start with the most basic tools as a foundation for further investigation.
by
rburgess
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