Podcast
by
David Collum
[Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected CM.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but by any measure, 2011 offered an over-abundance of 'business as unusual' developments to summarize. We hope you enjoy David's colorful observations and insights, which are very much his own. — cheers, Adam]
Background
Governments gambled on a return to growth solving all the problems. That bet has failed.
—Satyajit Das—
Every December, I write a Year in Review. Last year's was posted at several sites including Chris Martenson’s [1]. What started as summaries posted for a couple dozen people accrued over 13,000 clicks in total last year. It elicited discussions with some interesting people and several podcasts, including a particularly enjoyable one with Chris [2]. Each begins with a highly personalized survey of my efforts to get through another year of investing. This is followed by a brief update of what is now a 32-year quest for a soft landing in retirement. These details may be instructive for some casual observers. I have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory since the late 1990s and have ignored the siren call for diversification. I vigilantly monitor my progress relative to standard benchmarks. The bulk of the blog describes thoughts and ideas that are on my radar. The commentary is largely stream-of-consciousness with a few selected links that might be worth a peek. Some are flagged as “must see”. Everything else can be found here [3].
2011 Year in Review: Signs of an American Spring and a Fourth Turning
by David Collum[Every year, friend-of-the-site David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. Moreover, he has graciously selected CM.com as the site where it will be published in full. It's quite longer than our usual posts, but by any measure, 2011 offered an over-abundance of 'business as unusual' developments to summarize. We hope you enjoy David's colorful observations and insights, which are very much his own. — cheers, Adam]
Background
Governments gambled on a return to growth solving all the problems. That bet has failed.
—Satyajit Das—
Every December, I write a Year in Review. Last year's was posted at several sites including Chris Martenson’s [1]. What started as summaries posted for a couple dozen people accrued over 13,000 clicks in total last year. It elicited discussions with some interesting people and several podcasts, including a particularly enjoyable one with Chris [2]. Each begins with a highly personalized survey of my efforts to get through another year of investing. This is followed by a brief update of what is now a 32-year quest for a soft landing in retirement. These details may be instructive for some casual observers. I have been a devout follower of Austrian business cycle theory since the late 1990s and have ignored the siren call for diversification. I vigilantly monitor my progress relative to standard benchmarks. The bulk of the blog describes thoughts and ideas that are on my radar. The commentary is largely stream-of-consciousness with a few selected links that might be worth a peek. Some are flagged as “must see”. Everything else can be found here [3].
by
JW
One of the most important aspects of becoming self-sufficient is the ability to produce your own food. Many people begin small garden spaces in the backyard as a way to start out and then slowly expand their growing space and variety of crops. Growing your own food can become addictive. After one begins to grow their own food, many will then start looking at new and different methods of how to extend their season and at ways to include plants that require a longer growing season (building a cold frame is a good start).
Selecting a Greenhouse
by JWOne of the most important aspects of becoming self-sufficient is the ability to produce your own food. Many people begin small garden spaces in the backyard as a way to start out and then slowly expand their growing space and variety of crops. Growing your own food can become addictive. After one begins to grow their own food, many will then start looking at new and different methods of how to extend their season and at ways to include plants that require a longer growing season (building a cold frame is a good start).
by
charleshughsmith
Hard Times Ahead for Assets
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Executive Summary
- Understanding the leading indicators for commodities prices
- Either bellwether copper is cheap or stocks are expensive
- S-curve analysis suggests we’re entering a corrective phase for commodities
- Why those long on on resource investing should take a defensive stance
Part I: Are Commodities Topping Out?
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Hard Times Ahead for Assets
Are commodities topping out? Since we know commodities are physically limited in supply even while demand continues to rise, common sense suggests that commodities will outperform over the long term for as long as industrial civilization continues its consumption of those commodities.
However, it is also clear that the global economy is either slowing or entering an actual recessionary contraction. Thus it behooves us as investors to ask what that contraction of demand might do to the prices of commodities over the near term (i.e., the next 24 months, 2012-2013.)
In Part I, we examined the connection between stock markets and demand for commodities as reflected by the chart of the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, the commonly used bellwether for the commodities market. We determined that if the stock markets of China and India are indeed leading indicators of demand for commodities, then the market for commodities will likely weaken.
We also found that margin debt seems to be far more closely correlated to the US stock market than demand for commodities as reflected by the CRB, meaning the US stock market may not be an accurate leading indicator of commodity demand or pricing pressure.
In Part II, we examine a key technical correlation that has withstood the test of time, that of copper and the stock market, and explore a potential key dynamic which may exert outsized influence on the demand and pricing of commodities over the next few years.
As a side benefit, our examination of the commodities may also shed light on the direction of the stock market — another key interest for many investors.
Hard Times Ahead for Assets
PREVIEW by charleshughsmithHard Times Ahead for Assets
by Charles Hugh Smith, contributing editor
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Executive Summary
- Understanding the leading indicators for commodities prices
- Either bellwether copper is cheap or stocks are expensive
- S-curve analysis suggests we’re entering a corrective phase for commodities
- Why those long on on resource investing should take a defensive stance
Part I: Are Commodities Topping Out?
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Hard Times Ahead for Assets
Are commodities topping out? Since we know commodities are physically limited in supply even while demand continues to rise, common sense suggests that commodities will outperform over the long term for as long as industrial civilization continues its consumption of those commodities.
However, it is also clear that the global economy is either slowing or entering an actual recessionary contraction. Thus it behooves us as investors to ask what that contraction of demand might do to the prices of commodities over the near term (i.e., the next 24 months, 2012-2013.)
In Part I, we examined the connection between stock markets and demand for commodities as reflected by the chart of the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, the commonly used bellwether for the commodities market. We determined that if the stock markets of China and India are indeed leading indicators of demand for commodities, then the market for commodities will likely weaken.
We also found that margin debt seems to be far more closely correlated to the US stock market than demand for commodities as reflected by the CRB, meaning the US stock market may not be an accurate leading indicator of commodity demand or pricing pressure.
In Part II, we examine a key technical correlation that has withstood the test of time, that of copper and the stock market, and explore a potential key dynamic which may exert outsized influence on the demand and pricing of commodities over the next few years.
As a side benefit, our examination of the commodities may also shed light on the direction of the stock market — another key interest for many investors.
by
Chris Martenson
Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Executive Summary
- The risk of cascading derivatives failures is the “nuclear option” scaring central planners into doing everything in their power to prop up the financial system
- The loss of small investors leaves market prices more vulnerable to the growing percentage of fickle, short-term, “hot money” trading systems
- Removal of China’s ‘deep pockets’ from the EU and US credit markets could easily cause them to seize up
- Why currency devaluation via inflation still seems the likely endgame
- Recommendations for increasing your financial and personal resilience to this outcome
Part I: Worse Than 2008
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Derivatives
You’d think that after AIG blew up spectacularly and Lehman choked on a hairball of tangled derivatives (one that is still being picked apart), the lesson would have been learned and derivatives reduced in both size and complexity.
Unfortunately, that lesson was not learned, and we have to square up to the fact that derivatives are now roughly $100 trillion larger in aggregate than they were in 2009:
Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonGet Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Executive Summary
- The risk of cascading derivatives failures is the “nuclear option” scaring central planners into doing everything in their power to prop up the financial system
- The loss of small investors leaves market prices more vulnerable to the growing percentage of fickle, short-term, “hot money” trading systems
- Removal of China’s ‘deep pockets’ from the EU and US credit markets could easily cause them to seize up
- Why currency devaluation via inflation still seems the likely endgame
- Recommendations for increasing your financial and personal resilience to this outcome
Part I: Worse Than 2008
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II: Get Ready for Worldwide Currency Devaluation
Derivatives
You’d think that after AIG blew up spectacularly and Lehman choked on a hairball of tangled derivatives (one that is still being picked apart), the lesson would have been learned and derivatives reduced in both size and complexity.
Unfortunately, that lesson was not learned, and we have to square up to the fact that derivatives are now roughly $100 trillion larger in aggregate than they were in 2009:
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