Podcast
by
Ready
You might say that I am a bit of an unconventional thinker. I generally take a different approach to things than what most people do, given the same stimulus. I believe I am in good company in that regard here at ChrisMartenson.com. I clearly understand the controversy over employing biofuels as one method to prepare for the coming storm. Let me say right up front that I do not believe biofuels will allow our existing civilization to sustain its current high net energy lifestyle by substituting biofuels for oil. My argument for the application of biofuels is at a much more personal/community level. I have been asked repeatedly about what and why I am doing this, so I am posting this as a service to the ChrisMartenson.com members who have questions that may not have been answered yet.
by
Ready
by
Chris Martenson
Positioning For The Coming Rout
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Executive Summary
- What private and public debt levels are telling us
- Housing’s prospects for worsening the situation
- Why endless compound growth is impossible
- The crushing pain of a deflationary downdraft
- Predictions and conclusions for the future
Part I – Why Growth Is Dead
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – Positioning For The Coming Rout
Looking Deeper
Okay, that’s the big picture. It is why I am convinced that the next twenty years are going to be completely unlike the last twenty years. For starters, we’re not going to be able to double credit this next decade, and that alone is a big shift with huge implications. But we’re also going to be facing higher energy costs, which will further impair the smooth operation of the economic machine, because energy is an input cost to literally everything else.
But to have an idea of what is going to happen next (say, over the next year) so that we can make better personal and investment decisions, it’s important to dig a little deeper into the data. Here we want to lift the covers on total credit market debt and housing because these are the key elements of this story.
Total credit market debt is first broken into two main buckets: financial and non-financial sector debt. Financial sector debt belongs to commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, life insurance companies, brokers, dealers, and government-sponsored agencies. Non-financial sector debt belongs to households, businesses, and governments.
At this level we already see where some of the trouble lurks.
Positioning For The Coming Rout
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonPositioning For The Coming Rout
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Executive Summary
- What private and public debt levels are telling us
- Housing’s prospects for worsening the situation
- Why endless compound growth is impossible
- The crushing pain of a deflationary downdraft
- Predictions and conclusions for the future
Part I – Why Growth Is Dead
If you have not yet read Part I, available free to all readers, please click here to read it first.
Part II – Positioning For The Coming Rout
Looking Deeper
Okay, that’s the big picture. It is why I am convinced that the next twenty years are going to be completely unlike the last twenty years. For starters, we’re not going to be able to double credit this next decade, and that alone is a big shift with huge implications. But we’re also going to be facing higher energy costs, which will further impair the smooth operation of the economic machine, because energy is an input cost to literally everything else.
But to have an idea of what is going to happen next (say, over the next year) so that we can make better personal and investment decisions, it’s important to dig a little deeper into the data. Here we want to lift the covers on total credit market debt and housing because these are the key elements of this story.
Total credit market debt is first broken into two main buckets: financial and non-financial sector debt. Financial sector debt belongs to commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, life insurance companies, brokers, dealers, and government-sponsored agencies. Non-financial sector debt belongs to households, businesses, and governments.
At this level we already see where some of the trouble lurks.
by
Poet
This post appeared earlier today in our Forums. We've elevated it here because we think it a useful exercise for the CM.com community to engage in. How realistic is the dream of financial self-sufficiency for today's society?
Are you middle class? Surprisingly, most people who think they are middle class, are not middle class.
Being middle class is being able to afford what most would expect a middle class family of 4 or 5 can afford:
Are You Middle Class?
by PoetThis post appeared earlier today in our Forums. We've elevated it here because we think it a useful exercise for the CM.com community to engage in. How realistic is the dream of financial self-sufficiency for today's society?
Are you middle class? Surprisingly, most people who think they are middle class, are not middle class.
Being middle class is being able to afford what most would expect a middle class family of 4 or 5 can afford:
by
Adam Taggart
by
Patrick Killelea
Since many of our members are considering relocating, downsizing and/or finding housing better suited to their future priorities (e.g. greater energy efficiency), we invited Patrick Killelea, founder of the housing news and forum site Patrick.net, to offer his advice to house buyers in today’s market. Patrick was one of the most vocal bloggers warning about the collapse of the U.S. national housing bubble years before it inevitably popped in 2007.
(A note to those of our readers who work in residential real estate: the views expressed here are Patrick’s own, which he has consistently maintained for years. While some of them are not popular with the realty industry, the resulting dialogue they have created about the structure of our national real estate model has been a healthy one.)
If you’re in the market for a house, there are a number of important factors to consider which your agent just isn’t going to tell you.
Buying a House in Today’s Market
by Patrick KilleleaSince many of our members are considering relocating, downsizing and/or finding housing better suited to their future priorities (e.g. greater energy efficiency), we invited Patrick Killelea, founder of the housing news and forum site Patrick.net, to offer his advice to house buyers in today’s market. Patrick was one of the most vocal bloggers warning about the collapse of the U.S. national housing bubble years before it inevitably popped in 2007.
(A note to those of our readers who work in residential real estate: the views expressed here are Patrick’s own, which he has consistently maintained for years. While some of them are not popular with the realty industry, the resulting dialogue they have created about the structure of our national real estate model has been a healthy one.)
If you’re in the market for a house, there are a number of important factors to consider which your agent just isn’t going to tell you.
by
Chris Martenson
The rout is on. More market weakness lies dead ahead – unless the Fed reverses course, and soon.
Eight weeks ago, on March 8, 2011, I wrote that there was a very high chance of a rout in all of the major markets – stocks, bonds, and commodities – due to the sudden disappearance of quantitative easing (QE) money at the end of June.
Since markets are supposed to be forward-looking, if the ‘rout’ thesis is correct, we’d expect the markets to begin selling off well before the last POMO. Perhaps even right about, oh, say this past week.
But first, let’s review what I said in The Coming Rout:
The Rout Is On
PREVIEW by Chris MartensonThe rout is on. More market weakness lies dead ahead – unless the Fed reverses course, and soon.
Eight weeks ago, on March 8, 2011, I wrote that there was a very high chance of a rout in all of the major markets – stocks, bonds, and commodities – due to the sudden disappearance of quantitative easing (QE) money at the end of June.
Since markets are supposed to be forward-looking, if the ‘rout’ thesis is correct, we’d expect the markets to begin selling off well before the last POMO. Perhaps even right about, oh, say this past week.
But first, let’s review what I said in The Coming Rout:
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