Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL), 7538.9B, -28.9B, (-0.38% w/w), contraction.
Total Bank Credit (TOTBKCR), 17449.1B, +28.9B, (+0.17% w/w), expansion.
Nonfarm Payrolls (PAYEMS), 0.2B, +275K, (+0.17% m/m), allegedly expansion.
Durable Goods, New Orders (DGORDER), -6.56% m/m, (prior -0.33% m/m), contraction.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (WCSTUS1), 361K, +706, (+0.20% w/w), very slow refill.
30 Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US), 6.88% -8bp.
10 Year Treasury (DGS10), 4.08% -11bp.
Headline payrolls looked strong; +275k was more than expected. That said, it turns out that over the past year (mostly unknown to me) subsequent revisions to payrolls data have consistently dropped the reported value by around 100-150k a few months later. So if we adjust-in-advance for the now-routine Biden-Handler BLS data fraud, payrolls came in weaker than expected. What’s more, the Biden-Handler BLS payrolls data corruption is now moving towards public knowledge – which is yet another “confidence collapse in institutions.” I’m guessing that’s why there was an SPX rally for a few hours after Payrolls on Friday, but it was more than completely unwound by the end of the day.
Disability is moving higher once more. About 400k workers appear to have left the labor force and moved into the “NILF With a Disability” group in this month alone. In the general population, disability is up by 500k. That’s “normal” for Jan/Feb; lots of people get disabled or die in these two winter months. It is a seasonal thing. Would “vitamin D sufficiency” address this? The Safe & Effective CDC will never tell us; with the Cartel in power, we are left to Doctor Ourselves.
Population 16+, With a Disability (LNU00074597): +498,000 +1.49% m/m.
Labor Force, 16+, With a Disability (LNU01074597): +106,000 +1.30% m/m.
Employed, 16+, With a Disability (LNU02074597): +8,000 +0.10% m/m.
Unemployed, 16+, With a Disability (LNU03074597): +98,000 +18.28% m/m.
Not In Labor Force, 16+, With a Disability (LNU05074597): +392,000 +1.56% m/m.
Now, for a new series brought to my attention by Chris. These have to do with “foreign-born” and “native born” labor force and population analysis. This month, in the overall population, a million native-born people died, while 1.2 million foreign-born people appeared.
